GBL-

Your timeline for the status of steelhead production in the Skagit is right on. The reasons for the decline are not so obvious though. More than just the Boldt Decision occurred in the mid-seventies. After the Boldt decision, 2/12/1974, it took the tribes a few years to build up their fisheries. At the same time the state made no new restrictions on the commercial or sport fisheries. Catches remained good. At about the same time the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) switched from a cold phase to a warm phase. The cool regime, which is good for salmon production in the pacific northwest, persisted from 1947-1976. Since 1977 the warm regime has dominated which is good for salmon production in Alaska but not in the northwest. A third factor of interest is the annual population change in the Puget Sound region which can be linked to habitat degradation. From 1970 to 1973 it was negative with almost 40,000 people leaving in 1972. In 1975 the trend had reversed and the annual population growth was about 25,000. Since 1975 the annual growth has varied but has remained above 20,000 and averaged about 50,000 people per year.

Unfortunately the Boldt Decision, ocean conditions, and population growth cannot be reversed. At best their effects on steelhead production can be understood and accounted for to some degree in any steelhead recovery plan. An interesting fact I recently read is that total tribal salmon and steelhead catch is less now than it was before the Boldt Decision. The catch in all fisheries has declined since the mid-seventies. I was one of those fishermen in the early seventies that thought catching 20 pound steelhead would last forever, not just in the Skagit, but in all the rivers of Washington. Times change!