The run might be a little late, but it is very likely that the pre-season forecast has over-estimated the runsize. Using Fraser River and Lake Washington sockeye for a clue, low runs are expected. The optimistic Baker forecast is based on the good size of the smolt population that emigrated Baker Lake two years ago. The pre-season forecast has completely omitted the variable of ocean survival as far as I know. And as we have learned, ocean survival can vary by quite a bit. Don't be too surprised if not so many sockeye show up.

Sg