Here's the point...if the escapement goal is, for instance, 50K...and the run size is forecasted to be 100K, should anyone be fishing for them?

If yes, then you may very well fish over a stock that will not make escapement that year, as the model may very well be wrong...as a matter of fact, it is almost certain to be wrong, it's only the degree of "wrongness" that changes year to year.

To avoid possibly fishing over a stock that won't make escapement (even if the forecast says it will)...then there will never be any fishing.

Salmo's not arguing that there should be a fishery this year...he's saying that if you will only agree to fish over a "healthy" stock, i.e., one that you are certain will make escapement after the fishery, then you will never get to fish for anything, as you will never be certain until after the season is over and the spawning counts are done.

Fish on...

Todd