Ondarvr-
I understand your position about no harvest until there are better forecast methods and it is certianly a legitimate one.

The fry based forecast gives the managers the best measure of what the in-river survival of that particular brood year was and is a significant improvement over the previous method of attempting to forecast the run off just the escapement numbers. The next step is to get a better handle on what happens to the fish once they enter the salt and even more difficult how they do in the open ocean. Improving that information pass the current understand is going to require both time and investiment. Given the realities of the world I don't expect any substaintal improvements in my life time.

Understand that in today's world if there are not enough chum to harvest we are not going to see even CnR fisheries on chum. See Salmo g's previous post on this thread.

I have tried hard not to inject my personal opinions in this discussion but rather to provide some factually information upon which we can have informed discussions.

BTW -
The forecast method for pink salmon is vritually the same as for chum (with just half of the historic data - fish only return every other year). Is it safe to assume that those proposing no fishing for chums beleive that should apply to pinks as well?

The best forecast methods for Chinook, sockeye and coho also depend to measures of the young fish leaving the river (smolt counts). What happens to them once they leave the river is nearly as variable as the chum and pinks. Until better information on the ocean survival of thise specis is available no fishing for them as well?

Those of us out fling flies for sea-run cutthroat in the fall on local rivers might get pretty lonely -LOL!

Relying on in-season updates with the exception of those rivers with concrete fish counters will rely on some sort of terminal fisheries to provide the info for that update and of course would mean no mixed stock fishing.

Would the above actions be the best for the fish - you betcha!

For the fishermen and local economies - not so much!

Tight lines
Curt