SteelieDrew,

50% of the Baker sockeye enter the Baker River trap between July 12-15, which is how the runsize update is made. So fishing by the Swins through the 14th, at their known low exploitation rate may make a dent in the run, but won't deplete it by any means. More important to pay attention to is the Upper Skagit harvest. They have a much higher harvest rate per day fished, but will be fishing only a few days, last I heard. But they can just as easily miss the sockeye that are moving by in pulses as not, or really slam them. As far as I know it's totally unpredictable.

Whatever they do, the treaty allocation remains 50%. I know that the roll of the dice means the recreational fishery in Baker Lake could be cancelled, or that it could be just as good as last year. I'm not going to worry about it. The law of averages tell us that some seasons it's going to work out great, and some seasons will stink if you're fishing last in line.

Sg