Waterboy,

This year's adult return is from a smolt population half as large as last year's. At the same smolt to adult survival rate, around half as many returning adults are expected.

It's funny to read a comment about "only 21,000" Baker sockeye. A few short years ago that number was something we dreamed about. Now you call it "only." Kinda' funny in context.

Adult returns will be larger than in the past due to the juvenile fishways and the new hatchery, but they won't likely be consistent from year to year. Freshwater productivity in Baker Lake, and now Lake Shannon as well, will vary from year to year. And ocean marine survival is likely to vary between 2% to 12% based on observations of previous brood years. In general, we likely will have a sockeye fishery most every year for the foreseeable future.

Sg