There is an interesting aspect of stock-recruit relationships, at least for PS chum. WDFW set goals in the 70s based on the average of the 3 highest escapements. Then, in the 80s and 90s runs expanded, escapements went up, and something "odd" happened. Ricker curves said that the MSY goal needed to be raised because when significantly more fish spawned, they got higher returns. The opposite is also true. As you make the runs smaller, as you evaluate smaller runs, the models (of course) say the goal needs to go down.

It will be a continuous decline. In another decade the analysis, which will be statistically robust, will support another decrease.