I am having trouble finding fault with your thoughts Curt but then this wrinkle. Annette Hoffmann sent out the update for Willapa and the Naselle hatchery is 107 NOR & 39 HOR which is just strange. It is the one thing that happens every now and then which is that the entire run is at about 30 to 40% of forecast which it looks like to be true. That is not the thing though. This is what a composite run looks like when the hatchery production survival tanks big time. Will it hold true ..... no idea but I think it is about 50/50 odds in Willapa which is something a bit out of the blue but not unheard of.

Little edit: The Willapa hatchery production returns was forecast at 32k + & natural was 4 k+ which is 8 to 1 H over W which is why my thoughts on the hatchery fish crashing hard. Math says the 2.1 to 1 H over W is really not a good thing to see. Hope that helps answer the questions I received.

Edited by Rivrguy (09/15/17 06:12 AM)
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in