So it begs the question, "What level of exploitation would it actually take to consistently produce MSY escapements?"

I contend that it's gonna have to be a LOT less than 78%. How much less? Who knows.... but let's look at 2014 to get a better idea.

According to the graph, 2014 escapement was roughly 11.2K. ER that year was posted as 47%... meaning that the 11.2K represented 53% escapement. Total unfished run-size works out to 21K.

So at run sizes that small, getting down to a 50% exploitation isn't even enough to meet the e-goal.


In the setting of this stock chronically failing to meet the e-goal, having a fixed ER-benchmark of 78% before making an "overfishing" designation is utterly preposterous!

The allowable exploitation rate MUST be adjusted downward SIGNIFICANTLY. Moreover, it must be adjusted downward in PROGRESSIVE fashion at smaller run sizes.
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)

The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!