https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

This link is to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and this is interesting. It may take those not familiar with it a bit to figure it out but it is worth the time, as long as your interested in the relationship between returning salmon and weather.

Rivrguy, can you give us the Cliff Notes version? It looks to me like it will be warmer and drier but I'm not certain I'm reading it right. Thanks!

We are at 60% chance above temp for next three months and 60% chance below on rainfall. The summer rain prediction wavers to all three above, below, normal. So even if the rain is normal it is not much. 4.5 months out it 50% chance below normal. Temperature is solid no wavering, warmer than normal.

Looking at it means a warm summer little or no rain until November. They fudge a bit by saying EC on the rain charts which boils down to no idea! Good summer me thinks and nice fall.

Im hoping for good steelhead spawn and things ramp up slow, for the rivers, at this point.

Likely hear drought, the end is near, all over the boob tub particularly Seattle stations and government stuff, fire danger likely up. For the Chehalis we are rain fed so low summer flows are normal, in fact our best years fishing are dry years as the fish slow way down. In the dry years early 90's the hatchery run did not make the East Fork Satsop until 3rd week of November one year and it was a hell of inriver fishing year.

I fished the Skagit this past week. The water temperature was 37*F. I've never caught a steelhead in water less than 38*. The river was colder than it was in January, when I actually caught a fish. Weird in that March is typically far better fishing than January, but water conditions trump all. The snow pack is good, but a warmer than average spring and summer could mean an early and fast runoff. Super low and warm summer flows mean poor production of juvenile coho, Chinook, and steelhead. And lots of forest fires. Last summer the forest fires, and their thick acrid air quality, kept me from doing as much fishing and backpacking as I would have liked. I was hoping for a more active summer in 2019. I might have to plan my summer around where the smoke isn't. That could mean somewhere besides the inter-mountain west, which wold be new for me.

I always question a weather forecast but this long range forecast looks to be firming up. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/central-park-wa/98520/march-weather/2254018?monyr=3/1/2019 utilizes the info to generate things but do not look to the day to day but rather scroll down to the average temperature graph. Walk it forward to May and looks to be a great spring. We always have a cool spot in June and around July 4th then into summer but the summer river flows are all about rain and temp in the months prior to June.

Heard one of the weather-guessers say that models look like a warmer summer. Should mean lower flows in streams and more fires. After a wet winter/spring the fuel loads out to be pretty good (if you're a fire). Saw that GH County has had two brush fires already.