I've got herring in brine and rigs all set up for this weekend!

I dont know about others but I'll definitely be out on the water!

Good luck and be safe out there friends!

Fished today, here’s my report:

There are no coho everyone stay home.

See you out there tomorrow!

Four coho and a pink to my boat today. Fished around the PA buoy

Nice! Must mean you got your motor problem resolved.

It's pretty amazing the amount of pinks that are still out there right now. From Shipwreck south yesterday on the run out there were still huge schools of pinks jumping all over the place. We also saw several large schools finning and nosing the surface.

From what I heard of the Snohomish opener this weekend that river is absolutely plugged as well. Easy limits in the usual spots, Pilchuck River, Thomas Eddy...

It's pretty clear the escapement forecast was drastically under-calculated.

Same on the Puyallup; WDFW recently established a two pink bonus. Just remember to check the regs as the Puyallup now has closed days of the week to avoid conflict with tribal fisheries.

No coho yesterday, Melanie had to settle for a nice king. Bob R

There are WAY more pinks than the forecast, that's true.

It seems worth mentioning that this is not a "calculation" mistake really -- it's really more a reflection that calculating fish returns is at BEST an informed estimation. While I appreciate and value those pre-season estimates, they are not great tools for managing fisheries IMO. Mid-season adjustments should be a larger part of season management -- even though I know people get frustrated by them.

The alternative is to treat the pre-season estimates as gospel -- which OVER harvests the resource when the pre-season estimate is too large, and cuts seasons off EARLY when the pre-season estimate is too conservative. Both suck.

Okay, point taken. So, their SWAG was way off......hopefully the silvers will also return significantly above the SWAG.

(SWAG = Scientific wild ass guess)

Yeah but the real problem is that ISU's are not an option to the NT fleet. We have to just accept whatever wild ass guess is thrown out and take it on the chin if it comes in under, whereas our fishery CLOSES if they come in OVER on their guess...

My point in complaining is just touching on the fact that it sucks balls there is no NT mechanism for an ISU in such a case where there is clearly an egregious under-forecast.

I was up at Doug Bar last night on the Snoho and there were several thousand pinks in that stretch. An absurd amount. Schools of fish visibly swimming in the water all around the boat and the water was boiling as far as the eye could see in all directions.

Not a silver report, but I did a scouting drive on Tuesday morning and saw a few humpies rolling in Thomas Eddy right above Douglas Bar. What surprised me was how many humpies were rolling in the Sky in Sultan flats. A couple kids were there at the mouth of the Sultan hooking a releasing them one after another.

its pretty irresponsible to spread the idea that NOAA numbers and models are wild ass guesses. yes there are errors associated with them but what is the alternative? this is akin to lambasting the weather man for a random rain shower when 90% of the time forecasts are correct and provide numerous benefits to public safety and general enjoyment. do you look at the forecast before you go out fishing? i would say that weather and climate modeling have greatly increased my fishing enjoyment and safety. I'm also not so dense that i believe the models are supposed to be 100% correct and I will use my eyes and gut if things change when I'm fishing bigger water on a boat. NOAA even has a weather model/river flow model that is extremely useful for picking your fishing dates if you aren't retired and have limited time to fish. you think it was luck that their chinook forecast for the puget sound was pretty spot on? the fact we have as good of models on migratory salmon is amazing and the result of tons of hard work by scientists and public investment and sitting back smug when they aren't spot on is just silly...

Just an FYI for boaters
The Mukilteo ramp will be closed this weekend for the Lighthouse Festival.
SF

https://mukfest.com/

Are you kidding me? People literally talk sh!t about the weather and weather forecasters all. the. time. Literally always.

What is the alternative? In season update. That IS the alternative that we do not utilize. Forecasting and backing up the forecast with in season update should be BMP but it is NOT. We are stuck with the pre-forecast alone which is only 1 tool in the toolbox!

These things are wrong more than "just a little", man. Get with the times.

Blenny,

I don't get what's "irresponsible" about poking fun at the lack of accuracy in fish forecasts. What are you worried will happen?

Also, I think suggesting that pre-season fish forecasts are similar in accuracy to next-day weather forecasts is further from the truth than suggesting pre-season fish forecasts are little better than guesses.

Fished 10 this morning. Nothing but a couple of small 4-5 #er resident coho and a pink. Saw zero nets fly in 3 spots. Checker had about one per boat out of Shilshole. He did state all were small and resident. Where are the ocean coho? It should be on fire with the numbers forecast by now? Maybe this weekends weather change will break it open?

Same here. Been fishing 3 or 4 days a week and I have not yet caught an Ocean Coho.
This morning I headed off for the Yellow Marker just past Scatchet Head but stopped in the bottom of the Horseshoe as the birds wer going nuts. Trolled around there for a while with zero so continued on out to the Yellow Marker. Trolled back to the bar and at 10am precisely (pill/shot time) we got our first fish, Nice little Blackmouth, then in short order humpy, resident ho, another Blackmouth! and finished with a slimer. There was a lot of bait.

Good Luck!

Hooked a gorgeous 12-13# coho today in area 9. Unfortunately it had an extra fin. Went home with a couple of rezzies.

My job for a while was to do ISU's for PS salmon stocks. We did ISUs for Chinook, coho, pink, chum, and sockeye for each of the management areas except the Straits unit. Updates were done weekly from July (LW sockeye) through January (Nisqually chum). Each week we also updated the allocations so that fisheries could be adjusted up or down depending on remaining harvest.

We further evaluated the ISU performance by looking at how well they predicted the run as compared to the forecast. In the vast majority of cases, the ISU was quite a bit more accurate.

The runs were generally updated based on commercial fisheries as we had almost immediate (>95% of a day's landings in 3 days) data. We used Indian, Non-Indian, gill net or purse seine depending on which one worked best.

Of course, this was in the 80s and technology has advanced so much that they must have better ways to come up with estimates.