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#1013554 - 09/07/19 08:55 AM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: Carcassman]
Bay wolf Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 10/26/12
Posts: 1075
Loc: Graham, WA
Originally Posted By: Carcassman

Of course, this was in the 80s and technology has advanced so much that they must have better ways to come up with estimates.


Sure do...

Go into a hotel back room with the Tribes, lock the door and ask them how many fish to report are coming back. Then, provide allocations to whack as many fish as possible based on that number in nets. Then, after the nets are done, make an emergency closure.

This is Fish management in the 2000's...

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#1013571 - 09/07/19 11:26 AM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
Happy Birthday Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7428
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Well, yeah.

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#1013614 - 09/08/19 09:53 AM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: blenny]
Larry B Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 10/22/09
Posts: 3020
Loc: University Place and Whidbey I...
Originally Posted By: blenny
Originally Posted By: Larry B
Originally Posted By: IrishRogue
Originally Posted By: GodLovesUgly
It's pretty clear the escapement forecast was drastically under-calculated.


There are WAY more pinks than the forecast, that's true.

It seems worth mentioning that this is not a "calculation" mistake really -- it's really more a reflection that calculating fish returns is at BEST an informed estimation. While I appreciate and value those pre-season estimates, they are not great tools for managing fisheries IMO. Mid-season adjustments should be a larger part of season management -- even though I know people get frustrated by them.

The alternative is to treat the pre-season estimates as gospel -- which OVER harvests the resource when the pre-season estimate is too large, and cuts seasons off EARLY when the pre-season estimate is too conservative. Both suck.


Okay, point taken. So, their SWAG was way off......hopefully the silvers will also return significantly above the SWAG.

(SWAG = Scientific wild ass guess)



its pretty irresponsible to spread the idea that NOAA numbers and models are wild ass guesses. yes there are errors associated with them but what is the alternative? this is akin to lambasting the weather man for a random rain shower when 90% of the time forecasts are correct and provide numerous benefits to public safety and general enjoyment. do you look at the forecast before you go out fishing? i would say that weather and climate modeling have greatly increased my fishing enjoyment and safety. I'm also not so dense that i believe the models are supposed to be 100% correct and I will use my eyes and gut if things change when I'm fishing bigger water on a boat. NOAA even has a weather model/river flow model that is extremely useful for picking your fishing dates if you aren't retired and have limited time to fish. you think it was luck that their chinook forecast for the puget sound was pretty spot on? the fact we have as good of models on migratory salmon is amazing and the result of tons of hard work by scientists and public investment and sitting back smug when they aren't spot on is just silly...


Sorry if I hit a nerve but I don't see describing what is going on as a SWAG is irresponsible. If the process had a statistically high degree of accuracy over the years I would apologize but that simply isn't the case. Now, if I had said that projections were purely wild ass guesses your comment would be correct but I gave acknowledgment to the scientific aspect which draws fairly big circles......
_________________________
Remember to immediately record your catch or you may become the catch!

It's the person who has done nothing who is sure nothing can be done. (Ewing)

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#1013615 - 09/08/19 10:35 AM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
Happy Birthday Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7428
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
The use of forecasts is forced on us by the midst that we have to fish out in the ocean and not in the terminal areas.

Oregon did a analysis on their wild coho a while back and came up with a really good model that accurately predicted run size. It used four different ocean parameters. The problem was that they were independent enough that 3 good ones could be over-ruled by the last being poor. Or vice-versa. That 4th one was essentially just before they entered the bays and rivers so it was useless for managing the ocean.

So long a ocean fisheries drive things we will be using rather wildly inaccurate models but it is all we have.

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#1013660 - 09/09/19 04:56 PM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
bobrr
Unregistered


I left for trip to the East Coast to see family, I got back a week later, I'm glad some folks are posting actual silver reports (with a few pink sightings as well). Since I've been gone, you folks keep a request for silver reports on track despite those who would lose sight of the thread title. Some of us still talk about catching fish, not the politics of fishing. Start a different thread about the lack of accuracy in forecasts on your own. I still like to catch fish, not argue about it online. Bob R

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#1013696 - 09/10/19 12:01 PM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
OceanSun Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 07/01/04
Posts: 1303
Loc: North Creek
I caught a real nice ocean silver buck at the Indian Point yellow can in the shipping lanes Saturday. Small green flasher and herring aide coho killer. Didn't see any other fish caught there, Skatchet head or SE Posession. Tasted great grilled with a basting sauce of butter, brown sugar, lemon juice and wine. Ate half the fish myself minus the skin which the dogs happily took care of.

Anyone care to argue smoking recipes {;>)}>
_________________________
. . . and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and have dominion over the fish of the sea . . .

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#1013855 - 09/13/19 05:17 AM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
DrifterWA Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 04/25/00
Posts: 5077
Loc: East of Aberdeen, West of Mont...
Rain helped, got fish to move in the Chehalis. Jack fishing has been better than good. Adults are being caught/released, September 16 is fast approaching,,,,,yep, fish are around.


Boat traffic---be aware, right now the waters, up river, from South Monty are very low, at low BECAUSE the Chehalis River itself is very, very low. Tough to move around, even with a jet boat, except mid tide to high tide.

Enjoy the resource....please be safe!!!!!

Humptulips, which I don't fish, has lots of boat traffic. Word from the river, Chinook are around. Yea I know, Chinook should not be mixed in with a "Coho thread but I did"......



Edited by DrifterWA (09/13/19 12:31 PM)
_________________________
"Worse day sport fishing, still better than the best day working"

"I thought growing older, would take longer"

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#1013857 - 09/13/19 07:25 AM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
RUNnGUN Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 12/06/07
Posts: 1384
Cancelled trip to 10 due to wind forecast this morning. have a buddy that is still going. Will send report.
_________________________
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” – Ferris Bueller.
Don't let the old man in!

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#1013910 - 09/15/19 07:07 AM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
DrifterWA Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 04/25/00
Posts: 5077
Loc: East of Aberdeen, West of Mont...

Saturday report from the Chehalis River....

I enjoy "jack fishing" this time of the year.....like eat fresh but really enjoy smoking them, for some enjoyable eating.

Took me Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to get a double limit to fill my Big Chief smoker. Sure not like the old days, when limits were very easy to get.

Pleasant surprise yesterday morning, Saturday, where there had been 10 - 12 guys on the gravel bar, Thursday and Friday...…….2 of us had the whole river bar to ourselves, for 2 hours then another person joined us.

No limits of jacks BUT 5 adults were caught/released.....4 small Coho and 1 Chinook.

Seahawk early game or I'd be there again...…..Low water, above Montesano slows boat movement....there is some minor changes in gravel bars....be careful.
_________________________
"Worse day sport fishing, still better than the best day working"

"I thought growing older, would take longer"

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#1013920 - 09/15/19 04:41 PM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
RUNnGUN Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 12/06/07
Posts: 1384
Buddy got two 6# Friday before the wind came up.
_________________________
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” – Ferris Bueller.
Don't let the old man in!

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#1013927 - 09/16/19 05:03 AM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
Jaydee Offline
2010 SRC Champion!

Registered: 12/19/03
Posts: 1002
Loc: Paradise City!
Port Angeles was fast yesterday. 25 + landed/released to harvest our first 8 clipped coho. Rain has em coming. Gearing up now to do it again this morning.

_________________________
RIP Tyler Greer. May Your seas be calm, and filled with "tig'ol'bings"!


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#1013938 - 09/16/19 12:28 PM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
stonefish Offline
King of the Beach

Registered: 12/11/02
Posts: 5206
Loc: Carkeek Park
No disrespect towards anyone fishing the straits with my post.
You are just playing by the rules handed out by WDFW.

I know it has been discussed before, but wouldn't it be better for the fish if you could just retain your first two coho whether clipped or not and be done?

I read a report recent with 36 fish caught to take home 4 hatchery fish.
That seems ridiculous to have to release 32 unclipped fish to get 4 hatchery fish.....
You'd think there would be less unclipped fish mortality of you could just keep your first two.

Your thoughts?
SF
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Founding Member - 2023 Pink Plague Opposition Party
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#1013944 - 09/16/19 01:38 PM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: stonefish]
Dan S. Offline
It all boils down to this - I'm right, everyone else is wrong, and anyone who disputes this is clearly a dumbfuck.

Registered: 03/07/99
Posts: 17149
Loc: SE Olympia, WA
Originally Posted By: stonefish
No disrespect towards anyone fishing the straits with my post.
You are just playing by the rules handed out by WDFW.

I know it has been discussed before, but wouldn't it be better for the fish if you could just retain your first two coho whether clipped or not and be done?

I read a report recent with 36 fish caught to take home 4 hatchery fish.
That seems ridiculous to have to release 32 unclipped fish to get 4 hatchery fish.....
You'd think there would be less unclipped fish mortality of you could just keep your first two.

Your thoughts?
SF


100% agree. If coho didn't have such a high mortality rate, it would be one thing, but how many of those 32 wild fish made it? Seems idiotic to me.
_________________________
She was standin' alone over by the juke box, like she'd something to sell.
I said "baby, what's the goin' price?" She told me to go to hell.

Bon Scott - Shot Down in Flames

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#1013954 - 09/16/19 04:12 PM Re: Any coho reports [Re: stonefish]
SpoonFed Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 01/29/19
Posts: 1519
100% agree. Especially with the runs we have nowadays.

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#1013956 - 09/16/19 04:32 PM Re: Any coho reports [Re: ned]
ned Offline
Spawner

Registered: 06/09/07
Posts: 666
Loc: MA 5, 9, 10
Agreed, with mortality rates what they are, it unnecessarily takes a lot of wild fish out of the gene pool. Funny how (most of the time) you can tell a wild vs hatchery coho right away in how they fight.


Edited by ned (09/16/19 08:08 PM)

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#1013957 - 09/16/19 05:51 PM Re: Any coho reports [Re: ned]
Steelheadman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/15/99
Posts: 4214
Loc: Poulsbo, WA,USA
Got out last Tuesday afternoon. Hit Salsbury then went over to Quilcene. Not very many fish. Tribal snaggers had a few coho. Wednesday I hit Hansville by the store and later the lighthouse. Got a 3 lb coho take my buzzbomb and hoochie. Went out to Foulweather bluff and saw a few roll.
_________________________
I'd Rather Be Fishing for Summer Steelhead!

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#1013958 - 09/16/19 07:17 PM Re: Any coho reports [Re: ned]
bobrr
Unregistered


Melanie and I fished the Chehalis River opener today, no bites all morning only saw a couple of fish caught. Afternoon showers brought a fresh batch in, bite turned on and we limited in two hours with Melanie catching her two on flasher and spinner, I had to work with herring. She did catch a king at least 20 lbs.s on my rod with herring, though. Successful release, she was happier when she caught her last fish of the day. Silvers were between 6 and 8 lbs. Fish enforcement was at the ;launch in the afternoon, said he saw a decent number of limits. Bob R

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#1013959 - 09/16/19 08:54 PM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: Dan S.]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12767
Originally Posted By: Dan S.
Originally Posted By: stonefish
No disrespect towards anyone fishing the straits with my post.
You are just playing by the rules handed out by WDFW.

I know it has been discussed before, but wouldn't it be better for the fish if you could just retain your first two coho whether clipped or not and be done?

I read a report recent with 36 fish caught to take home 4 hatchery fish.
That seems ridiculous to have to release 32 unclipped fish to get 4 hatchery fish.....
You'd think there would be less unclipped fish mortality of you could just keep your first two.

Your thoughts?
SF


100% agree. If coho didn't have such a high mortality rate, it would be one thing, but how many of those 32 wild fish made it? Seems idiotic to me.


Whenever the mortality rate exceeds the mark rate, you are far better off killing the first two fish. That's the break even point.... it's just a matter of do you want the dead wilds in the box of do you want to use them as feed for the sea lions crabs and seagulls. Take yer pick.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#1013960 - 09/16/19 10:42 PM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
bobrr
Unregistered


Isn't the ability to harvest unclipped coho in salt water controlled by the Feds? We've been arguing this for over 25 years but nothing is ever going to change it at a state level. Or am I wrong? Melanie and I have harvested 9 hatchery coho in salt water this year and released 2 wild. We've been lucky like that the last two or 3 years, but we haven't fished in the straits for years, only Swiftsure and Westport. I'm thankful we don't have to release wild fish in the river, only one hatchery coho today for 4 fish kept. Bob R

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#1013961 - 09/16/19 10:45 PM Re: Any coho reports? [Re: ned]
bushbear Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 08/26/02
Posts: 4709
Loc: Sequim
One of the issues in the Strait is the Pacific Salmon Treaty and the Canadian's protection needs for the Thompson River coho - a listed run in the Fraser River basin. We're helping to protect those fish with the MSF coho fishery in the Strait.

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