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#1030233 - 05/14/20 08:07 PM Can anyone stand a little good news?
Soft bite Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 11/11/08
Posts: 147
Loc: Central Park
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been positive (meaning unfavorable warm ocean conditions) nearly every month from January 2014 through December 2019. In fact 2015 and 2016 had the worst positive PDO readings ever recorded.

The first four months of 2020 have all had negative PDO readings indicating favorable ocean conditions for the smolt out migration going on right now. The 2020 terminal Chehalis coho return is forecasted to be 70,000 fish. All things being equal (they never are), the negative PDO could be forecasting a 2021 coho run in the range of 120,000 fish.

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#1030234 - 05/14/20 09:25 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
DrifterWA Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 04/25/00
Posts: 5074
Loc: East of Aberdeen, West of Mont...

Well now that is some good news....

Thanks......maybe it will help the 2020 summer run steelhead......2019 was the worse I've seen in my 40+ years of chasing summer run steelhead, locally .
_________________________
"Worse day sport fishing, still better than the best day working"

"I thought growing older, would take longer"

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#1030235 - 05/14/20 09:30 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: DrifterWA]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4394
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
Thanks for the info SB!
_________________________
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in

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#1030242 - 05/15/20 07:55 AM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
That's good for us down here. But, the shift in PDO will crash Alaska. Not that they'll fish less, they'll just get less of their fish.

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#1030247 - 05/15/20 09:54 AM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
WDFW X 1 = 0 Offline
My Area code makes me cooler than you

Registered: 01/27/15
Posts: 4549
Ready the nets!!

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#1030257 - 05/15/20 02:07 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Carcassman]
darth baiter Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 04/04/10
Posts: 199
Loc: United States
Actually, Alaska has constrained the SEAK troll fishery from the PST max allowed when their own stocks were in trouble. They don't when its only nonAlaska stocks that are hurting.

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#1030431 - 05/19/20 07:55 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
slabhunter Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 01/17/04
Posts: 3742
Loc: Sheltona Beach
Thanks for the good news! That and the herring spawn bode well for the future.
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When we are forgotten, we cease to exist .
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#1038200 - 09/16/20 08:36 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
Soft bite Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 11/11/08
Posts: 147
Loc: Central Park
The probable large return of jacks being reported may be a confirmation of an improved run for 2021. The PDO for 2020 year to date is through July is -0.26.

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#1038236 - 09/17/20 12:52 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
wsu Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 06/23/04
Posts: 422
Where do you find the monthly values? The UW site I used to look at is no longer updated.

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#1038292 - 09/17/20 08:40 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
Soft bite Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 11/11/08
Posts: 147
Loc: Central Park

I used to follow the UW site until it went dead. I do not know much about this one.


http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/data/db/climate/pdo/pdo.txt

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#1057985 - 10/28/21 08:28 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
Soft bite Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 11/11/08
Posts: 147
Loc: Central Park
The NT nets caught 918 coho this week compared to a model prediction of485. This is 189% of the model which could mean the run is 189 % of the predicted 62,176. That would be a run of 117,700 coho.

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#1057986 - 10/29/21 09:46 AM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
DrifterWA Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 04/25/00
Posts: 5074
Loc: East of Aberdeen, West of Mont...
10/29/2021

Thanks.....I'd REALLY like to know Coho numbers, hatchery vs. wild. I understand it was my call to only fish above South Monty but what I did not expect was "guessing", a 10 to 1 ratio of wild over hatchery, some would say even a higher ratio.

I already posted elsewhere, that a never saw or heard of a boat, with 2 or more fishers, that limited the boat with hatchery fish. Got to be major model problems??
_________________________
"Worse day sport fishing, still better than the best day working"

"I thought growing older, would take longer"

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#1057987 - 10/29/21 10:12 AM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
steely slammer Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 02/24/00
Posts: 1526
there just not clipping the number of fish they say they are..
_________________________
Where Destroying Fishing in Washington..

mainly region 6

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#1057988 - 10/29/21 10:49 AM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: steely slammer]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4394
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
Ah guys the harvest model is based on past commercial harvest by week or regulation ( Rec ). The numbers imputed to the harvest model are the agreed to forecast for run size numbers between the co managers.

What the harvest model does NOT reflect is wet falls which brings fish upstream early like this year or dry falls which they stack up and come in later. One very dry year I recall we did not get major movement for Coho until the 3rd week of November.

As to runsize guesses one is seldom right mid way for the reasons outlined. Combined NT and QIN are not that far off except for Chinook and again it rained early which messes with trying to get a flavor for things. NT's were up one week way down next then rain and back up again.

Always remember if fishing the Chehalis the Hatchery fish are proportionally way down because they are mixed with the upper Chehalis fish. Need to be on the Satsop to break the ratio to favorable. The Skook Mit fish are a later returning fish so Sept & Oct will have few marketed fish above Fuller Hill and backwards in H / W mix on the Chehalis as it is just 300k Coho smolt released in the upper basin.

_________________________
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in

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#1058001 - 10/30/21 10:56 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: steely slammer]
Misguided Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 09/27/08
Posts: 340
Loc: SWWA
Originally Posted By: steely slammer
there just not clipping the number of fish they say they are..


BINGO!!!
Anyone catch n releasing said wild fish noticed that the adipose fins are very small verses a "WILD" fish with a big adipose?


Edited by Misguided (10/30/21 10:57 PM)
_________________________
I Brake for Salmon & Steelhead!!!!!

2nd Generation Army Veteran and Damn Proud of it.

Misguided was the name of my 1st drift boat, I am not to be associated with LAWLESSNESS!!!!

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#1058009 - 10/31/21 10:25 PM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Misguided]
On The Swing Offline
Spawner

Registered: 02/06/03
Posts: 783
Originally Posted By: Misguided
Originally Posted By: steely slammer
there just not clipping the number of fish they say they are..


BINGO!!!
Anyone catch n releasing said wild fish noticed that the adipose fins are very small verses a "WILD" fish with a big adipose?


Says a couple guys that have never done that work for a day in their lives...
_________________________
Fish gills are like diesel engines, don't run them out of fuel!

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#1058011 - 11/01/21 10:07 AM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
steely slammer Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 02/24/00
Posts: 1526
yes a$$ swing iv'e clipped fish
_________________________
Where Destroying Fishing in Washington..

mainly region 6

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#1058052 - 11/07/21 07:59 AM Re: Can anyone stand a little good news? [Re: Soft bite]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Most of the hatch coho went thru BEFORE the season opener on Oct 1

Wild fish with more protracted run timing are now dominating the run

Wild run is easily TWICE as strong as the preseason forecast.

It will be a GOOD escapement year for the fish
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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