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#1047688 - 02/16/21 11:40 AM 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta )
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4393
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
This might to be of interest to some of us.

Coho Rumor Confirmed: 1.732 Million; Columbia Springer Season Parameters Outlined
Coho Rumor Confirmed: 1.732 Million; Columbia Springer Season Parameters Outlined
By Andy Walgamott February 11, 2021 HEADLINES 0 Comments
Northwest salmon managers are forecasting an ocean abundance of at least 1.732 million coho off the coast this summer, confirming rumormongering here over the weekend.

The figure is prior to any sport or commercial harvest and includes a whopping 1.014 million Columbia early coho, 576,000 Columbia late coho and 125,000 silvers from Oregon Coast lakes and rivers, plus some additional coastal fish, silvers that are Oregon Production Index and Oregon Coast Natural indexes.


AN ANGLER’S COHO IS NETTED ON THE PACIFIC OUTSIDE OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER MOUTH DURING THE 2014 SEASON. (BECCA ELLINGSWORTH)
In other words, it kinda looks like summer and fall fishing might be shiny off much of the Oregon and Washington Coast and up into the big river.

It’s the largest forecast for what’s known as the “Oregon Production Index” since at least 2015, and if it’s accurate, it would be the highest actual OPI ocean coho abundance back to the late 1980s and a shade above 2014’s 1.724 million, which was one of the best or top-two years by sport catch for numerous Oregon ports back through at least 2008.

The figures come from a Columbia River Recreational Advisor Group Meeting packet that was posted on WDFW’s website for a meeting yesterday afternoon on potential spring and summer Chinook fisheries and is appended at the end.


The total figure of 1.732 million is 6.5 times higher than last year’s preseason forecast and more than 3.5 times higher than how many silvers actually were out in the Pacific. Last year saw a massive return of jacks, immature coho, suggesting high ocean survival and good feeding conditions.

The fishing advisor packet also begins to flesh out potential spring Chinook seasons on the Columbia, including possibly reopening the lower river thanks to somewhat increased Cowlitz and Lewis returns but also instating a new bubble for the mouth of the former river. Those streams’ stocks are important for reseeding efforts in the upper basins.

Given the forecast of 75,200 above-Bonneville springers, 30 percent run buffering and splitting shares between tribal, recreational and commercial fishermen, 2,922 mortalities are available for sport anglers from Buoy 10 into the Snake, with 2,206 of those earmarked for the big river below Bonneville before a runsize update. Models suggest a seven-day-a-week fishery would fill 98 percent of the lower river quota through April 4.

https://nwsportsmanmag.com/coho-rumor-co...eters-outlined/
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#1047728 - 02/16/21 06:53 PM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Rivrguy]
Krijack Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 06/03/06
Posts: 1531
Loc: Tacoma
I hope they are right about the coho, and that they don't give away most of them to commercial and ocean fisheries, just to shut down the terminal fisheries when they find out their wrong.

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#1047942 - 02/19/21 08:04 AM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
That's how it's done. Fish on the autopilot of hope.

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#1048006 - 02/19/21 03:42 PM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Krijack]
cohoangler Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 12/29/99
Posts: 1611
Loc: Vancouver, Washington
Originally Posted By: Krijack
I hope they are right about the coho, and that they don't give away most of them to commercial and ocean fisheries, just to shut down the terminal fisheries when they find out their wrong.


The Tribes have been complaining about this for decades. They are the primary terminal fisheries. Everyone else gets a shot at the fish before they do. So any entity fishing in a terminal area is highly dependent an accurate forecast.

But I should also mention that there is the flip side - If there is a low forecast, but it comes in high, the terminal fisheries will reap the benefit since the ocean fishery will have already been greatly restricted, when it might not have been necessary.

So, yes it cuts both ways.......

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#1048017 - 02/19/21 06:35 PM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
The Tribes may complain, but they insist on not having updates and insist on fixed schedules. Plus, they support the ocean harvest because, under Hoh v. Baldridge they get to balance catches. The resource carries the burden of conservation.

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#1048070 - 02/20/21 10:03 AM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Carcassman]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4393
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
In GH the QIN did not require that the marine harvest be counted into the states share but a few years back that changed and they did insist that it be calculated into the Nations share. One of the things that always puzzled myself and others is how most terminal fishers do not understand the sharing process. The Nation is entitled to 50% of GH harvestable fish after they reach WA ST waters. Now what does not get counted is AK & BC intercept fisheries which is by CWT's 50% or more of the harvestable Chinook. Coho it is a bunch but it stays within reason but Chinook is another matter.

With the fisheries lined up in front of the terminal fisher it stinks. The process used by the Feds and states ( and BC ) for marine fisheries is pretty much a process that eliminates citizen participation. Tribal have a bit more influence but not much unless it is about the fish in WA ST waters. So nothing much changes be it ESA stocks or healthy ones. If I recall correctly former Director Anderson was extremely proud of the NOF process which frankly locks in the status quo. One should not expect any real change in how salmon harvest is managed in the near future but only more of the same.

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#1048073 - 02/20/21 11:32 AM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Whe Hoh v. Baldridge first came out, WDF staff supported essentially closing the Ocean to ensure that harvestable fish returned to the Tribal terminal area. The Tribes and Feds both said "No, just share the catch". Which meant that if the ocean NI fishery took 1,000 of stock A, then Tribe A gets at least 1,000. And, they stopped doing updates and went to fixed schedules.

In-season management is staff-intensive. For the NI side, it also shifts harvest generally to the nets the recs can't take all the share in a short amount of time that the fish are present. The other piece is that the burden of conservation falls on whoever fishes after the update, which is always the Tribes and in-river sporties.

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#1048085 - 02/20/21 01:43 PM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: cohoangler]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Originally Posted By: cohoangler
[quote=Krijack]

But I should also mention that there is the flip side - If there is a low forecast, but it comes in high, the terminal fisheries will reap the benefit since the ocean fishery will have already been greatly restricted, when it might not have been necessary.

So, yes it cuts both ways.......


Only partially true. The gillnets will still fish their fixed schedules, enjoying the benefits of increased CPUE bestowed by not just a larger runsize but also fewer fish picked off in the ocean.

In contrast, the inriver rec guys will still be fishing under the pre-season constraints (shorter season, smaller bag) that were based on a smaller runsize forecast. With a few notable exceptions, it's rare that inriver is liberalized to take advantage of the bigger run. (Yes, I have seen the hatch coho bag increased to 4 in the Cowlitz... and there are certainly other examples in terminal fisheries fueled by hatchery salmon once brood needs have been met.)
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#1048089 - 02/20/21 01:54 PM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Carcassman]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4393
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
Way back when we both had all of our hair and teeth CM the forecast was really bad so marine and all was closed ( mixed stock ) except one fishery. Terminal Rec was open ( we had a lot of hatchery of about X4 ) then it happened, it was a run not seen in years. Tribe said update so they could fish but state said nope you agreed and we ain't going to change it. So in the agreement since each year a clause was put in it. There will be no in season updates on run size. Before we lost Steve he did shut things down one time but the run was OK it just came in late. That went over like farting in a church.

Places like the Columbia where they can count the fish updates work. Rain driven watersheds not so much because the fish do what fish do, reproduce when conditions are favorable not when we want them to swim in.
_________________________
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in

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#1048094 - 02/20/21 02:19 PM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Back when I had hair I did the ISU's for PS, all stocks/all areas. We actually looked at the performance of the PSF, ISU, and final run (landed catch plus actual escapement). This was updating about 18 different units generally a couple times a season. There was only one unit where the PSF was actually more accurate than the ISU. One.

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#1048098 - 02/20/21 02:29 PM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Rivrguy]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Yeah... but ISU's are hard work and "too expensive"
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#1048105 - 02/20/21 02:59 PM Re: 2021 Fishing Forecast ( sorta ) [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
With today's computer power it is not as hard as it used to be.

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