Something to keep in mind about "the numbers". Numbers used in management are what can be collected. Catch, escapement. Lie on catch.....As to escapement, you do spawner surveys to count and estimate the escapement. Freshets can blow carcasses out, maybe hide redds, maybe the fish didn't spawn in the index areas.

One pink year I remember asking the filed bio up in Skagit if the run was what I updated. He laughed. He said that, yes, the fish were there. But, that freshet blew the carcasses into the Straits and the number we would end up with would be much smaller.

And it is update time for the Satsop Hatcheries as they are a good reference for the Chehalis Basin.

2020 Coho adults 8868 Jacks 3966 ( 1000 Wild Adult Coho )

2019 Coho adults 6928 Jacks 944 ( 1533 Wild Adult Coho )

So compared to 2019 Wild Coho seem down but hatchery returns are up from 2019. Did a quick look at 2018 and the Wild returns for 2020 show downside also but hatchery returns above previous years. Bingham has a good Wild count as they have to pass fish upstream unless they open the ladder and I do not know if they did that. Also it does not mean we did or did not make escapement as this is simply a snap shot in time.

Now that Jack number, DW has been chirping away all fall on the massive numbers of Jacks both Wild & Hatchery and he had it right. This years returns are about 420% increase compared to 2019 and 2018 also. That is a huge Jack total for Coho at those two facilities.

The high survival for the hatchery Coho and not so good for Wild would point to the fresh water rearing time be the limiter not the ocean. or....or....

How reliable are jack numbers as a predictor for next year's return?

They are just a piece of the puzzle. Simply says fresh water to first part of salt they did well.

Thought I would add this bit. Hatcheries bypass the natural order by spawning and rearing to smolt so hatchery Jack totals can be up but not so the natural production. The natural production is subjected to all things natural that can reduce the numbers of naturally produced smolt. Simply put the hatchery production can show a banner year with Jacks but the natural production not so much if things went bad in spawning, over wintering, over summering and other things. So all the hatchery Jack totals say is out migration and first months in the salt Coho did well.

Jack who?

I would think that run timing and size could effect how hard the commercial guys effect the run. A good example of how convoluted numbers can be, the Skok appears to have been hit hard by the commercials. The number of adults fell almost 8,000 compared to last year and over 30,000 from 2017. The end result was more returning jacks to the hatchery than Adults.

Any numbers on how many of those jacks had "extra" fins? I'm wondering if maybe more of the "wild" adult, male coho of years past came back back as jacks....

Who?
Jack Off (he's one of the Meoff brothers).

201 W Jacks at Bingham https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2020-11/weekly_escapement_11-12-2020_0.pdf

Hmmm... Looks like the wild run flat out underperformed. Dang...

You gotta love data points. Same time 2019 Bingham had 35 wild Jacks and 2020 201 wild Jacks. You can pull up the escapement reports by year with the link provided. I have a friend who will take a years report and go back by brood years to try and get a feel for performance. I have done that but would rather have a root canal done! He says we make escapement this year but will not guess much more as his verdict is " one strange ass year. "

For those that are interested.

WDFW seeks feedback for the 2021 coastal steelhead season

Date
Nov 12, 2020
Contact
James Losee, 360-249-1201

Public Affairs Contact: Eryn Couch, 360-890-6604
Public invited to Nov. 24 virtual town hall to discuss steelhead forecasts, declining populations

OLYMPIA – Fishery managers with the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) invite recreational anglers, conservation groups, and other interested members of the public to a virtual town hall, 5 to 7 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24, to learn more about low coastal Washington steelhead trends and share feedback on plans for the 2021 fishing season.

“State and tribal fisheries managers are projecting another year of low steelhead returns along much of the Washington Coast” said James Losee, regional program manager for the Coast and Puget Sound region. “We want to make sure we’re hearing from local anglers and steelhead enthusiasts as we begin to consider options for protecting this iconic state fish while balancing recreational angling opportunities.”

To join the 5 to 7 p.m. Nov. 24 virtual town hall, please register at us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_iHswvFn2QweX9kxAfEwqpw. The event will be recorded and posted to the department’s website afterward for those unable to attend.

Fishery managers will consider this feedback in preparation of their work with tribal co-managers to plan future fishing opportunities.
The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife is the state agency tasked with preserving, protecting, and perpetuating fish, wildlife, and ecosystems, while providing sustainable fishing, hunting, and other recreation opportunities.

Persons with disabilities who need to receive this information in an alternative format or who need reasonable accommodations to participate in WDFW-sponsored public meetings or other activities may contact Dolores Noyes by phone (360-902-2349), TTY (360-902-2207), or email (Title6@dfw.wa.gov). For more information, see https://wdfw.wa.gov/accessibility/requests-accommodation.

first off my ? is if the jacks are actually wild what are they doing going into a hatchery and not up into the streams they were born?? so i'm taking it that they were just unclipped smolt ??


second ... the wdfw meeting on steelhead is a bogus thing at best..

At Bingham all fish going up the East Fork Satsop are stopped by a weir go into the holding ponds and the wild are passed upstream by way of a pipe from the pond into the river. I cannot say unclipped because Bingham CWT's a certain number of smolt that are not clipped to utilize as a cross check on data accuracy of returning adults. All the fish are checked with a metal detector wand similar to those used at concerts to sort out fish with CWT implants in the fish. Bingham Creek also has a weir that requires putting fish up manually that is operated by the Science Division. A quick look at the math says they pass the wild jacks as well as the adults upstream.

As to the virtual meeting, I tend to agree with you. Not because I doubt the Director's sincerity but rather history says staff will do what they deem appropriate regardless of what the public input is. End result is more or less a PR thing which is unfortunate.

The QIN harvest numbers for the weeks of Nov 8 and Nov 15 are posted on the WDFW website. https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/tribal/landings#chehalis They are not very good especially Chum but keep in mind the NT nets got well over the modeled harvest. The Nov Rec Coho fishing has been OK mostly but spotty also as the conditions have all over the place. So like Coho and Chinook the Chum came in early and in good numbers. NT nets benefitted but QIN took a hit, luck of the scheduling I guess.

Well I thought that Coho number was a bit strange so I e mailed the question to Mike and Kim and yup bit of a math mix up and it will get fixed. Mikes e mail is below and by the way mistakes are made always but the key is what you do with them. This was handled properly from my seat.

Good catch, was in the field today and hadn’t a chance to look at the numbers. Wk 46 they caught 270 and 26 in Wk 47. We’ll get that updated on the web site tomorrow.

Looking like the escapement is going to be a bit above the forecast for coho. We’ll be counting them for another month or two.

Enjoy your afternoon.

If we end up above forecast based on that big wad that went up on the front end I guess that works on paper but I don't believe it is indicative of a healthy overall run this year.

Correct! The commercial harvest looks to be under expectations as was Rec bay and tidal. Inland did much better as one would expect with the overall movement of the fish and all the early rain. One can put forth that while making escapement the Coho run was smaller than the preseason forecast. So if one plays devil's advocate and put forth that had the Nation and NT Commercial performed as modeled Coho and maybe Chinook would fail to make escapement your probably on solid ground as to Coho. Not so sure about Chinook and Chum and I asked about Chinook redd counts but didn't get a response but I will ask again for you all.

Forecast Commercial Take All: Coho 9287 Chinook 1789 Chum 8302

Actual Commercial Take All: Coho 5433 Chinook 1666 Chum 8957

As a past manager I would be reasonably happy with the Chinook and chum catches as they really aren't far off. Coho is.

Back in the late 80s we had some interesting days on the Fraser. The ISU suggested that we had about 750K Adams/Lower Shushwap available for harvest by Canada. Their internal allocation system (they did not learn from the US on allocation idiocy as they went to the hundredth of a percent) gave the fish to the seiners. But, they had to fish Area 29, which is the lower Fraser where they had never fished. Went in and in 4 hours took the 750K. A big OOPS was avoided because DFO was watching/listening and shut it down.

Turns out the 750K was not there; fish were going up and downstream across the echo sounder and being counted multiple times. So, in actuality, there was no surplus.

The policy folks, especially the US ones who had never managed a fish in their life, went bonkers. How could such an error be made? The managers? S**t, it was less than 10% of the run. Our ISU was pretty good.

The upside is that the harvest centered on a couple of abundant components of the escapement and missed less abundant ones which the Panel (staff) were trying to increase to get better spawner distribution which would increase future production.

Upshot is that there are a lot of factors that go into understanding just how successful management efforts were in a given year. Helps, though, if the escapement goals are higher than Noah was allowed.