Hey fellas,

Jumping ahead here for a minute. If you'll recall, this year's springer run was forcast as early as last summer. The forcast was based on the phenomenal jack count at the dams from last year's return.

Does anyone have the poop on how this year's spring chinook jack counts are shaping up compared to last year's? Everyone talks as though this year's great columbia fishery is a flash-in-the-pan and should be enjoyed now because it likely won't happen again for a long time. At least thats the feeling I get from this board and the media.

I wouldn't rush to judgement. Nature does some amazing things and often throws us one or more curveballs when we least expect it. With the turnaround in ocean conditions I would like to think there is hope of experiencing this again in the not-to-distant future.

What kind of jack count is needed for the states to consider another April fishery?

From the Outdoor Section (By Allen Thomas) of the Vancouver based newspaper The Columbian.


"There's already a bit of bright news on the horizon for 2002.

This year's return of jack chinook, fish which come back a year earlier than their siblings, is tracking about 50 percent of the 2000 count.

But remember, the 2000 count was a record high. The 2001 jack count is about five times the 10-year average.

That portends a goodly number of 4-year-old chinook for next season. This year's massive number of 4-year-olds should mean a healthy bunch of 5-year-olds in 2002.

So while it's far too early to make any predictions for 2002, there's some reason for optimism."

Eric, by all indications, including large jack counts again, all salmon and steelhead runs should be great for at least next season and very likely beyond. The reason of course is the much improved ocean feed conditions brought on by the shift from El Nino currents to La Nina. Weather and marine biologists had predicted a couple years ago that this would last 2 or 3 years but have revised that upward to possibly several years. How about that!!! Yeehaw!

Rt, another reason for the great return is we had plenty of water to spill to get the smolts out. I'm sure you know we are going into a drought year so we won't have any extra water to spill for the smolts. Like you said we should be o.k. for the next 2 or 3 years, after that the out look is grim.
Jim Marquis (The Duck)

Where did you guys read that the jack count is at about 50% of last year??? From what I remember the jack sount for 2000 was somewhere around 20,000 or so. As of today the jack count over Bonneville is 504 jacks. Does anyone know if the jacks arrive later in the run. Not a post to flame on what has been said, I have been wondering the same thing as you guys. What can we expect next year???
Good luck and tight lines, Jeff

Jeff, I didn't hear about the low jack count over Bonny (don't touch that one 'Yall ). I hope it picks up dramatically. To answer your question, they got the 50% figure from the Vancouver Columbian article above your post. ... But I have heard about plentiful jack returns in many non-damned rivers region wide as well. It is unfortunate about this drought as the ocean finally gets productive again. With more rain to go along with more fish next fall/winter/spring seasons we should be yelling "another one on" often!

[ 04-19-2001: Message edited by: RT ]

Jeffhead,

When they say "tracking at about 50%" that doesn't mean 50% of last years total it means 50% for this time period last year.

Even half the number sounds encouraging. Theoretically, that could translate into 200,000 plus springers for next year and as was mentioned earlier, that doesn't include the 5 year olds that will show next year that are actually from this year's class.

Let's cross our fingers eh?

OK,
I found what I was looking for. On the FPC home page there is the historical data for last year, as of April 18, 2000 there were 935 jacks over Bonneville, now the numbers make more sense. If it tracks historically to the 50% projection as stated we should see around 3000 jacks by the end of April and 11,500 by the end of May. So the answer I was looking for is yes the jacks do historically come later in the run. So hopefully we should see a season next spring that would be about half as long as this years or to make it last, let us fish a limited number of days each week. Either way would be good. Another plus for us is that there should be more clipped fish in next years mix.
Good luck and tight lines, Jeff