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#226067 - 01/04/04 01:05 AM Some Weather is on the Way
Sparkey Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 03/06/99
Posts: 1273
Loc: Western Washington
It seems as though the forecasters are predicting a repeat of the post-Christmas '96 storm that caused millions of dollars of damage in the area.

Given that we are experiencing the coldest weather in almost a decade, the weathermen are not focusing on what could very well take place Monday night into Tuesday.

As posted from www.wunderground.com\'s Scientific Weather Discussion (by far the best detailed weather forecast on the Web...thanks to Kanektok Kid for pointing out that page to me)...

This looks
like it could be quite a snowfall event before precipitation turns to rain
with many lowland areas seeing conditions similar to the Post
Christmas storm of 1996. Then warmer air brings periods of rain with
quite a bit of warming Wednesday on...with flooding possibly becoming an
issue. Details on the early week system are still in question. A
winter weather outlook was issued this afternoon...and will be
upgraded to a watch models remain consistent.
_________________________
Ryan S. Petzold
aka Sparkey and/or Special

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#226068 - 01/04/04 03:01 AM Re: Some Weather is on the Way
Plunker Offline
Spawner

Registered: 04/01/00
Posts: 624
Loc: Skagit Valley
FROM NWS.NOAA.GOV
500 PM PST SAT JAN 3 2004

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...

A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO
REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHEN THE SYSTEM
GETS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON...IT WILL RUN INTO A VERY COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SYSTEM WILL OVERRUN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. THIS COMBINATION
COULD LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OVERRUNNING SNOW
EVENT FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON SINCE THE HEAVY SNOWS AFTER CHRISTMAS
IN 1996. EVENTUALLY THE WARM AIR WILL SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME...THE SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE THE WARM AIR TO ELIMINATE
THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. BOTH THESE VARIABLES WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLS ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON.

--------------------

Get your rubber boots out folks. wink
_________________________
Why are "wild fish" made of meat?

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#226069 - 01/04/04 03:23 AM Re: Some Weather is on the Way
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12767
If all of this comes to pass as predicted, then you can kiss the lower Quinault goodbye.... perhaps even the whole season.

Hopefully the Hoh will come back in by mid Feb.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#226071 - 01/04/04 11:54 AM Re: Some Weather is on the Way
Thumper Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 04/08/01
Posts: 340
Loc: Vancouver, WA
Cool weather site Ryan. Thanks.
_________________________
Jack

Please join CCA. After only 18 months total Pacific Northwest membership is over 7,000. We need you!

The walls of death have got to go!

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#226072 - 01/04/04 07:07 PM Re: Some Weather is on the Way
silver hilton Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 10/08/01
Posts: 1155
Loc: Out there, somewhere
And after that happens and the water comes back down, prepare for bratfest on the local PS rivers. I'm twitching...
_________________________
Hm-m-m-m-m

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#226073 - 01/04/04 07:15 PM Re: Some Weather is on the Way
cupo Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 06/18/03
Posts: 1060
Loc: north sound
It's my fault. I took this coming thursday and friday off. By wednesday night the rivers will be out.

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#226074 - 01/04/04 09:39 PM Re: Some Weather is on the Way
Bustinbig Offline
Spawner

Registered: 10/08/03
Posts: 515
Loc: silverdale
cupo,the same happens to me whenever i take time off.i think sometimes it is just better to call in sick and go. laugh

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#226075 - 01/05/04 12:20 AM Re: Some Weather is on the Way
Sparkey Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 03/06/99
Posts: 1273
Loc: Western Washington
It might not be all that bad (as in not post-Christmas '96 bad)...

Now for the interesting part...the possibility of heavy snow as we
transition to warm air on Tuesday and Tuesday night. 00z ETA model and GFS
guidance continues previous thoughts of moving precipitation onto the coast
late Monday night and into the interior early Tuesday morning. All snow to
start off. Offshore gradients and an initially deep cold air mass
keep 850-1000 mb thicknesses below 1305 meters with offshore
gradients in the Seattle Everett area until 7-10 PM Tuesday evening.
This is later than previously thought. Latest model precipitation amounts
vary with mm5-ETA model initialization and mesoeta indicating 5-10 inches
around Shelton...and 1-3 inches in the greater Seattle area. The GFS
MOS and GFS show a generalized 6-8 inches. The GFS initialized mm5
shows 7-12 inches around Shelton and 3-5 inches around Seattle.
_________________________
Ryan S. Petzold
aka Sparkey and/or Special

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