This time last yearover 20,000 springers were counted at Bonneville. So far this year only a little over 500 went over. Sure has me baffeled. Would appreciate any helpful info. My rod is limp. The Duck

Duck,

From what I have heard and read..... this year's springers are mostly four salts which have a tendency to run later than the five salts (which were a majority of the run last year). I am not sure why but that is what I heard. Anyone know why?

devine

They may not be late at all. There's no data (that I have seen, at least) that says they're there, just all pooled up in the ocean waiting for something.

The run may just suck this year.


If you look at 10-year averages, then push everything back 10 days because of "cold water" or whatever else, the current data indicate a total springer run of 130,000 fish over Bonneville, not 360,000.

https://www.nwp.usace.army.mil/op/fishdata/AdultFishCounts/BON_Ave_1994_2003.txt

Here is where it gets really interesting. If DFW lets the sport fishery continue, and the run is 130,000 fish, they will have blown through the 2% bycatch on wild chinook, in the face of clear data that showed that the sport fishery should have been suspended.

I think it is a distinct possibility that DFW will suspend the sport fishery, on the basis of Bonneville passage numbers.

The other interesting angle to this is that if DFW's pre-run forecast turns out to be way off, inquiring minds will want to know what is wrong with the science, and are other pre-run forecasts similarly afflicted (like, say, Lake Washington sockeye ).

The question !!!! I ask myself is where is the 10,000 wild fish the commercials released.

I got wind of a rumor today.....that said the comercial boats in canada cut off a huge number of fish on the inside passage. Im not sure what kind of impact that really has? They do love curling, so they're capable of anything.

You know,

Should we be surprised?

For all of the "science" that is quoted and "needed" to sustain any reasonable agruement regarding our fisheries there needs to be a giant ASTERISK.

I had a personal conversation with Dr. Earnest Salo, who is one of the Godfathers of salmonid research in this state, and he freely admitted that even the best science available is highly suspect when it comes to our salmon and steelhead resources. There are still just too many uncontrollable variables to really get a handle on things all o' the time.

And yes, we should not worry about any remaining wild steelhead runs... they'll do just fine!

Thank you for for the info but I'm still at logger heads to what is going on. Some of us are a little dense.( Referring to me. ) The Duck

Washington and Oregon are required to manage the non-tribal impact (death) on wild upriver (meaning those that pass over Bonneville Dam) chinook salmon to no more than 2% of the run. Run size is based first on estimates, then by actual #'s over the dam. For 2004, commercial non-tribal interests were allocated 0.8% out of the total 2%, with the remaining 1.2% going to sport fishers. To date, the commercial interests have realized close to their 0.8% impact, and have been suspended from further activity. The sport fishers have realized only a fraction of their 1.2% allowable impact.

However, this is all based on a run forecast of 360,000 upriver chinook (wild + hatchery). If the run turns out to be smaller than forecast, the commercial impact will have exceeded their 0.8% allocation, and the excess will be taken out of the sport allocation. If the actual run size is MUCH smaller than forecast, the commercial impact may be sufficient to account for the total 2% impact allocation, and any further fishing by sport interests will cause the total non-tribal impact to exceed 2%, and DFW will have failed to manage the impact.

So, until the #'s over Bonneville indicate a run closer to forecast, it becomes more and more risky for DFW to continue the sport fishery.

BTW, the spring run stops on May 31, and gives way to the summer run. So, if the 2004 spring run forecast is to be realized, the daily count from now until May 31 would have to _average_ 5000. Yesterday's count was 273.

Relax fishing friends for I still believe they will come,marked alot of fish this weekend in lower river alot more than I been seeing but record run not!!!