#242630 - 05/02/04 02:14 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Juvenile at Sea
Registered: 01/22/00
Posts: 183
Loc: Rockport,WA,USA
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Caught me way off guard here too!! Especially since I was the one hired by PSE the past few years to shuttle & help do redd counts and surveys for both chum and kings from the Baker River down to Sedro as part of their re-licensing project. Our area WDFW Biologist at the time was invited out on many occasions to join us and see things for himself,...but sadly declined. Was kinda like watching paint dry after the first week or two, but I can tell you this much,..there were redds everywhere Fall of 2002!! Bar just below the Dalles Bridge we counted & surveyed close to a hundred redds of which maybe 10-15 were dewatered in extremely low flows. About a half mile below that 128 redds in a 200 - 300 yard section of the river of which close to 30 were on the brink of being dewatered, in low flows. (spent a whole day here just on this one bar) Remember too 2002 was the year the OP was shut down due to extremely low flows and fishing here was out of this world!! Water was low here too so the fish adjusted, if anything their redds were covered with too much water during the winter (if thats possible) We also did some fry and smolt surveys in the Spring of 2003 and the numbers were impressive enough to easily catch them with a fish tank net for studying and identifying!! Surveys included redd counts, depth measurements, water velocity readings among other things and were done at high, medium and low water flows at different times of the year. The job was very thorough and intensive!! Most Redds effected by the Baker River are from Concrete to just above Hamilton. Only a handfull below Gilligan Creek in spots not usually fished at all and mostly in side channel areas. If the WDFW wanted to protect one of the largest Salmon runs on the Skagit that could definately support a sport fishery than they should have it open from Gilligan Creek down river at the least.
_________________________
John Koenig John's Guide Service "Wounded Warriors In Action" Associate & NW Field Coordinator
"Life is short. Never pass up a hug. Look children in the eye when you talk to them. Bend the rules. Forgive quickly. Kiss slowly. Laugh uncontrollably. And never regret anything that made you smile."
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#242632 - 05/03/04 12:28 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Juvenile at Sea
Registered: 01/22/00
Posts: 183
Loc: Rockport,WA,USA
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Salmo, ask and you shall receive. Reason for a down river fishery rather than mid to upper river; ( One of my pet peeves actually ) Too many people targeting Chums while on their redds, on the upper river especially!! And I mean blatant targeting of spawning fish, especially in the area just below Swift Creek. Should be a law against knowingly doing this, but then again with lack of any visible enforcement up here, would it really matter. (sorry, this is a touchy subject with me)
Trying to find my fishing logs here for 2001 & 2000, but cant at the current moment, can give you numbers of fish caught, redds seen, & days I was hired to do redd surveys, along with water conditions, temps, ect. going back 5 years or so, if yer ever interested in seeing them. E-mail me if you are
Still, this is one of the healthiest runs on the Skagit. No reason for such a closure.
_________________________
John Koenig John's Guide Service "Wounded Warriors In Action" Associate & NW Field Coordinator
"Life is short. Never pass up a hug. Look children in the eye when you talk to them. Bend the rules. Forgive quickly. Kiss slowly. Laugh uncontrollably. And never regret anything that made you smile."
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#242633 - 05/04/04 03:36 PM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Dick Nipples
Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 27840
Loc: Seattle, Washington USA
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Hey, Johnny,
Long time no see...how's it goin' up there?
I think that it is already against the law to target actively spawning fish...but that sure doesn't stop all those yahoos up at Switft Creek, now does it.
I don't mean to start up another fly vs. gear argument, but there is usually a big crowd of "River Runs Through It" fishermen up there...you know the ones, guys who never fished before the movie, but worked at Microsoft or some other .com boomer, and went out and spent three grand on a whole fly set up. They line up at Swift Creek and snag spawning chums all day...it would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
Fish on...
Todd
_________________________
 Team Flying Super Ditch Pickle
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#242634 - 05/04/04 03:47 PM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Smolt
Registered: 01/16/03
Posts: 85
Loc: Seattle
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I'd like to see a barbed and bait ban above The Cascade as well. It's closed to all salmon retention up there, so why not ban the eggs and barbs?
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#242635 - 05/04/04 07:58 PM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Repeat Spawner
Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 1362
Loc: DEADWOOD
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Todd Sad "I don't mean to start up another gear vs. gear argument, but there is usually a big crowd of fishermen up there...you know the ones, guys who never fished before but worked at Microsoft or some other .com boomer, and went out and spent three grand on gear set up. They line up at Swift Creek and snag spawning chums all day...it would be funny if it wasn't so sad." It is just sad! Todd I had to change it a little 
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Brian
[img]http://images.google.com/images?q=tbn:VeLkiG2PPCrjzM:www.bunncapitol.com/cookbook[/img]
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#242636 - 05/04/04 08:21 PM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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River Nutrients
Registered: 11/25/01
Posts: 2834
Loc: Marysville
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Thought this topic was done!
Johnny - Have to disagree - there are many anadromous skagit stocks that are healthier than its chums - pinks, coho, sea-run cutthroat, bull trout and winter steelhead. Rather than rely on opinion I have based my position on the frequency that that a stock meets or exceeds the co-manager's agreed escapement goals over the last 20 years.
Chums - have an escapement goal of 40,000 on odd years (pinks) and 116,500 on even years. Has met its goals 6 times (30%) over the last 20 years.
Chinook - summer/fall - goal of 14,900 - made goal 5 times or 25% of the time.
Chinook - spring - has not met the combined goal of 3,000 once in the last 20 years.
Coho - goal 60,000 - has met the goal 10 times or 50% of the time.
Pinks - goal of 330,000 - met the goal 8 out of the last 10 years (odd year only) or 80% of the time.
Winter Steelhead - goal of 6,000 - met goal 13 times or 65% of the time.
If the chums are fishable and can support harvest why are not the steelhead which is meeting its goal twice as often?
Johnny/Todd - understand you concerns about fishing on spawning fish. I notice on a web site of a popular Skagit guide this week - while fly fishing the last day of the season he had pictures of 3 steelhead - to my eye they apeared to be a spawned out female, a male running milt, and a male that look as if it were ready to spawn or had all ready spawned.
Would you recommend that the CnR season on the Skagit/Sauk be shorten to get the anglers of the spawners? If so how much? A month?
Tight lines S malma
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#242637 - 05/05/04 05:16 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Returning Adult
Registered: 09/30/02
Posts: 412
Loc: Sequim
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Tx for the figures Smalma. I would argue that the way the CnR is managed may be flawed. They open the upper river only which puts unnecessary pressure on the redds in that area year after year. I have fished this fishery over the last 20 years and it has declined significantly, at least from memory. Yet I have friends that live down river (Capehorn and Birdsview) and they say they see several steelhead rolling in the evenings at the headwaters and tailouts. I havent' seen that occur on the upper river in the last seven or eight years. It used to happen every morning and every evening on Sauk Bar, but I can't remember a day it has happened in recent years. If they're going to run the CnR I think they should cycle it between upper river and mid river every few years. It would average the pressure out.
_________________________
Mark Strand aka - TC
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#242638 - 05/05/04 10:17 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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TC:
"I havent' seen that occur on the upper river in the last seven or eight years. It used to happen every morning and every evening on Sauk Bar, but I can't remember a day it has happened in recent years. If they're going to run the CnR I think they should cycle it between upper river and mid river every few years. It would average the pressure out."
Seems like sound wisdom to me, as well.
There is a bar below our place, and I fished that spot probably 4 days a week from Jan. through April. Never once did I see a Steelhead roll in all the water from there to the house. (and many, many hours were spent just sitting and watching the river roll by). Coho, Pinks - Yes, Steelhead never.
Splitting the river at the Dalles bridge and rotating the fishery on two year cycles - 2 above the bridge then two years below - makes sense to my illogical brain.
Would it help the situation? I don't have the education to know, but it would take some pressure off the fish that get above the Dalles Bridge...they seem to get hammered year after year.
Mike
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#242639 - 05/05/04 11:41 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Juvenille at Sea
Registered: 03/15/03
Posts: 168
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Smalma -
Great stats. Do you have any stats on harvest for chums? Lets say, commercial, tribal and sport? I would be very surprised if the sport harvest was more than 3% on even years. The chum fishing on the skagit is a recreational fishery that generates a lot of income for the local economy. Far more money than will be generated from commercials (we won't bring tribal slitting into the topic). These rule changes need to be addressed and reviewed long before implementing them (at least a year in advance). WDFW probabaly new for some time (3,4 years) that escapement goals would not be met. This would allow for public input and lobbying which could help the sportsmen/women retain their rights. Instead of getting the shaft year after year.
All others concerned about swift creek/ snagging. Stopped stewing about something you can never change unless you close the river to fishing (every where). Look at the big picture, those involved are affecting probably .005% of the population. Half of the fish they catch are spent and their effect is quite irrelevant.
LT
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#242640 - 05/05/04 12:11 PM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Smolt
Registered: 01/16/03
Posts: 85
Loc: Seattle
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Great points LunchTime. I don't see what's so difficult about going selective rules in areas where fresh and spawning fish mix. That way we still get fishing opportunity, while minimizing hooking mortality. The "kill it or close it" mentality just shafts the sportsfishers. The fish pictures Smalma points to make that point perfectly- you will catch downstreamers and ripe fish when winter steelhead fishing- everywhere and anywhere on the Skagit, even when staying away from tailouts and spawning areas. With C&R regs the fishery stays open, and the fish get a quick barbless C&R.
"the co-manager's agreed escapement goals" maybe where the problems start?
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#242641 - 05/05/04 01:46 PM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Juvenile at Sea
Registered: 01/22/00
Posts: 183
Loc: Rockport,WA,USA
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Smalma, The fish that you are refering to caught on the fly the last day of the season were definately not fished for or caught off of spawning water and were caught in more fast moving traditional holding type water as Nailknot could attest to. Both males had not yet spawned, although one was indeed milting. ( I would not ever purposely fish on or target spawning fish and can distinguish spawning water from holding or traveling water ) Lunchtime, didn't mean to stew about things I know I cannot personally change, ( try not to be negative about things) just a sore spot with me; and I wasn't pin pointing the Swift Creek Drift or pitting fly vs.. gear, said the "area" meaning actually the area from Swift Creek down to Rockport where redds are far more visible than in the Swift Creek Drift. (especially the dewatered ones) Run timing was also pretty screwed up this year on our wild fish, (pretty much all our runs) They came, but in their own due time,..seems to be getting a little later each year. We traditionaly see our first push of upper Skagit system Natives in late January & the first few weeks of February,...then it goes dead for a few weeks. These fish are upper trib fish. This year they just didn't materialize till' a bit later, either that or they screamed right by us and we didn't see em'. Generally they are the bigger fish. This year, a good sign perhaps, over 80% of the fish caught were in the 6-10 pound range, another 10 + % 10 to 12 pound range. And I also personally agree with Nailknot on the upper Skagit above Marblemount going to no bait & barbs, right along with the upper Sauk above Darrington starting in Feb. ( BUT THEN AGAIN,.. how much more govt. control in our lives do we really need?!?! How's about educating the masses first on the fragility of somthing we take so precious, and after that letting us make our own decisions on how we live our lives. Hopefully integrity will win over!!) :rolleyes: Aw man,...there I went and did it,..starting to jones already. Only 3 more weeks till AK, only 3 more weeks till AK My 2 cents!! 
_________________________
John Koenig John's Guide Service "Wounded Warriors In Action" Associate & NW Field Coordinator
"Life is short. Never pass up a hug. Look children in the eye when you talk to them. Bend the rules. Forgive quickly. Kiss slowly. Laugh uncontrollably. And never regret anything that made you smile."
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#242642 - 05/05/04 07:57 PM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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River Nutrients
Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13615
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Johnny Coho,
I see. I don’t think very well of fishing for fish on their redds. Some folks do it; I don’t know why. However, I’d hate to see a stream closure because over the years I’ve fished for Dolly Varden and early winter steelhead during the same time that chum salmon are spawning in the middle and upper Skagit River. Most fish I see on redds have already spawned, and the damage done by those who target them for fishing is negligible. I’m not defending that action, just saying that in the greater scheme of things, very little actual harm is done to the chum population. I’d rather see a focus on educating anglers and let enforcement agents ticket those they observe actively snagging salmon on redds. My preference is to retain angling opportunity whenever it’s consistent with fish conservation objectives.
Smalma,
You asked Johnny/Todd, but I don’t support shortening the season, CNR or otherwise, to keep some anglers from fishing on redds. Two reasons. First, as I mentioned to Johnny above, the actual damage to the fish population, if any, is negligible (like we once thought the entire CNR season was!). Most fish observed on redds have already spawned. The eggs are in the gravel. The resultant fishing activity is harassment, but doesn’t reach the threshold of damaging the fish resource. Second, when the river is closed, there continues to be fishing, based on my personal observations. That fishing is not CNR, and does meet the threshold of damage due to the slight reduction in spawning escapement. I’d rather risk the negligible harm of dolts who fish on redds than accept the certain harm of post-season poaching.
TC & Mike,
Why would it make sense to rotate the late season steelhead CNR fishery between the middle and upper Skagit River? You’ve seen less fish rolling in the upper river in recent years because the run sizes have been smaller. More fish were rolling on Sauk Bar 20 years ago because run sizes were larger, and Sauk Bar had more preferred steelhead holding water - and less fishing pressure. Those conditions I think better explain the difference in your observations.
Those steelhead in the middle river don’t stay there. The vast majority of them migrate to the upper Skagit and Sauk Rivers and their respective tributaries to spawn. A relatively low percentage of the Skagit basin steelhead run spawns downstream of the Dalles bridge. At least they did when I used to help do the redd counts, and I haven’t heard of any significant shifts in spawning distribution. But all the steelhead do have to migrate through the lower and middle rivers. And particularly, since this is a CNR fishery, with a very low overall exploitation rate, I can’t see how this action would improve steelhead productivity in any way. As Smalma points out, the steelhead run meets its escapement goal most of the time, although that goal is the legitimate subject of debate.
Lunch time,
Great question. Terminal area run size and escapement are not the same thing. The even year chum runs are usually forecast as above, to well above, escapement, and fishing seasons are set. Sometimes the fishery “over achieves,” and the escapement goal isn’t quite met. Even with the increase in popularity of fishing for chums, the effect of the recreational fishery is likely between negligible and small. To the best of my knowledge, it’s not computed as a factor in chum management. Maybe that’s changed in recent years; perhaps Smalma would confirm or refute.
Unfortunately, sport anglers have no rights - at law anyway - at stake in this issue. As far as getting the shaft, well there’s a lot of perception driving that. The more terminal a fishery is, the greater the likelihood that it will be shut out of opportunity due to the excess of a prior fishery. The U.S. v. Washington case law has greatly reduced that likelihood, but it cannot eliminate it.
I agree with you about the probably effect of the snagging activity and fishing on redds. My preferred approach is education. Most anglers don’t want to be perceived as dirtbags, but I never argue with a fisherman about it. Any who would argue, or tell me to mind my own business (albeit in more direct language), clearly need that snagged spawnout more than I need to tell them about sportsmanship and the rules of fair chase.
Sincerely,
Salmo g.
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#242643 - 05/05/04 08:53 PM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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River Nutrients
Registered: 11/25/01
Posts: 2834
Loc: Marysville
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lunch Time - Looked at the in river sport harvest - see report listed at this site - http://wdfw.wa.gov/fish/harvest/99sport.htm Found that for the years 1997 to 1999 the last three years easily available to me (sorry to lazy to do additional work) found that in: 1999 the sport harvest was estimated to have been 884 chums or about 6.97% of the total harvest. 1998 the sport harvest was estimated to have been 2,158 or about 8.58% of the total harvest. 1997 the sport harvest was estimated to have been 583 or 22.76% of the harvest. The three average was 12.77% of the harvest occurred in the river sport fishery. Remember that is just the harvest and I would guess that the number of fish released would be an order of magnitude higher. Clearly the sport fishery is having some impact. Johnny - I in no way meant to imply that the anglers were targeting spawning steelhead. Rather you and Todd were suggesting that the chum fishery be moved down river to get anglers off the spawning chums. I'm suggesting that if fishing on spawning fish is a concern that adjustments to the CnR steelhead should be considered - Please not I did not suggest that those changes be made but rather asked you how to address your concerns. I see no reason why management of our wild salmonid resources should not be based on consistent principles. That would apply to either fishing on spawners or runs expected to be underescaped. I find your desire to fish on underescaped chums runs inconsistent with your stance on wild steelhead. Salmo - Generally speaking the expected impacts from freshwater fishing is modeled into the expected total impacts for each season. I share your concern about the willingness of some of our anglers to target a given species even when the season is closed. This type of unethical behavior (at least in my opinion) seems to getting more common. This may be due in part to some anglers and guides willingness to put their own fishing needs above that of the fish. The newbies that Todd referred to see this and accept such behavior as the norm. Tight lines S malma
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#242644 - 05/06/04 02:13 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Repeat Spawner
Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 1362
Loc: DEADWOOD
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Thanks,
Smalma
_________________________
Brian
[img]http://images.google.com/images?q=tbn:VeLkiG2PPCrjzM:www.bunncapitol.com/cookbook[/img]
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#242645 - 05/06/04 03:28 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Smolt
Registered: 01/16/03
Posts: 85
Loc: Seattle
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Smalma and Salmo- thanks! I agree with Smalma that we need a baseline to have consistency and measure effects. We can and should keep an eye on the baseline- but you guys have the knowledge. Keep us in the loop? That said, I'm all for sport opportunity (thanks you Salmo), and I believe regs could be modified to account for holding upriver fish, and spawners in the same water, by using the same established baselines for hooking impact- barbless C&R works according to science. I see a number of waters that are obvious candidates for this reg- particularly on the Skagit. If kelts are of concern, why open a bait season on the Sauk June 1? If salmon are closed, and no hatchery steelhead planted, above the Cascade, why open a bait & barber season up there? We have tools to mitigate sport impact, why not use them where appropriate? Just give it a chance and see what happens? My understanding of this years minor reg cycle says we need to find an advocate inside WDFW for regs change. Fitting with the economic benefits and wild & scenic designation of the Skagit drainage- I'm all for year round selective on the Sauk, and selective above the Cascade. The only legal take in those waters are Dollies and steelhead (and "trout"). We could run a "whitefish season" but for Dollies... but that doesn't work well- too complicated. Seems like a win-win to have clear C&R selective rules in place where so many species are around but off limits. I have no anger towards anyone just looking for good solutions that allow me to keep fishin... Worth a try?
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#242646 - 05/06/04 04:55 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Returning Adult
Registered: 09/30/02
Posts: 412
Loc: Sequim
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A couple things here:
Salmo - While I don't have baseline statistics in front of me I can reflect on psych 101 and Pavlov’s dogs. After a while an animal will become conditioned to environmental impacts. If getting hooked and the resultant struggle disturbing, even if the fish are released, I would suspect that eventually the fish will become behaviorally modified. Behavior in psychological terms meaning the resultant action or reaction to a given condition or set of circumstances. Maybe I'm giving the fish too much credit for reacting to being jerked around by the lips but I think I'd learn pretty fast. I believe it is possible that some of the fish would react to their set of circumstance and determine that it was safer to migrate back downstream to remove themselves from potential harm, spawning in the mid river. Consequently the fish that results from a downriver redd would then continue to return to that area. At least that was my understanding of the process, though I don't profess to be a certified professional in this field.
This would also explain the observation made by my friends over the past couple of months.
I completely agree as you are reading this that it is conjecture on my part but that's my somewhat educated opinion.
Additionally I have been told by seemingly knowledgeable people that the Steelhead in this river spawn pretty much all up and down the river. So I think all things taken into consideration that cycling the CnR to a different area of the river may have a positive effect of re populating the upper stretch of the river during March & April.
I would agree that the holding water on the Sauk Bar this year has changed dramatically and that very little on that stretch of river exists as it did 20 years ago. However I have made my observation over the past 15 years and I assert that before the last flood the Sauk Bar did have good holding water, just not many fish.
Nailknot - As a side note: I'd like to see an advocate as well but I'm pretty sure this ruling may have had significant input from the tribes as this river now sports the "triangle" indicating that the river is NOW co-managed with input from the tribe.
I believe this is why Brian Cleduesby has been asked to attend the upcoming Wildcat Steelhead Club meeting.
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Mark Strand aka - TC
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#242647 - 05/06/04 10:59 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Juvenille at Sea
Registered: 07/24/01
Posts: 149
Loc: Everett, WA
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Todd,
Not going to disagree with the fact that the fly guys on the Skagit are flossing chummers but they are not the majority at Swift Creek. The gear guys snagging there pretty much make it know they don't want the flossers around. The fly flossers take up to much of their snagging water with all of room needed to huck out those weighted flies and all. Take a look above the 101 hole or power lines and you will find more fly flossers. Although I have seen them on the river from Sedro to Marlbemount. What I don't understand is why? Once you have hooked a couple of chums you pretty much know what to expect. Big pull and thats it. Boring! If they are after the meat there isn't a chum worth taking home after it passes Burlington.
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#242648 - 05/06/04 11:44 AM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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River Nutrients
Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13615
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TC,
I don’t believe either Psych 101 or Pavlov’s dog are directly applicable here. Fish psychology is decidedly different than human psychology because fish have less brain, and what parts they do have in common with humans is still less developed than the human brain. The result is that to the extent that fish “think,” they think differently. While it’s reasonable to believe that fish don’t enjoy being hooked, they don’t experience it mentally the way you would, and consequently they don’t learn from it the way you would. Trout, and therefore probably steelhead, do become more selective after having been hooked several times. However, only a few steelhead are hooked more than once, altho individual steelhead have been identified as having been hooked and caught 3 times. (An exception might be the Thompson River, where the run size is often small over the past decade or so, fishing conditions optimal, and angling pressure quite intense.) I think the result is that steelhead don’t learn very much from being hooked because it doesn’t occur frequently enough for most of them. And to the extent they would learn from it, they would become more selective about biting bait and lures - that is what trout, for which there is more direct knowledge, are known to do. I see no evidence that steelhead would turn around and migrate back downstream to the middle Skagit River. The steelhead do not know that the Dalles bridge is the fishing boundary line. I suspect the observations made by your friends over the past couple months is the result of being observant, or coincidence. Skagit and Sauk steelhead have been holding in the middle river - often until after the April 30 closing date - for many years. They do so because it’s good holding water, but it is not where the preponderance of them will spawn. Yes, steelhead do spawn as far down as the bar below the Hwy 9 bridge, and very occasionally the Johnson bar near Burlington, but well over 80% of the steelhead run spawns upstream of the Dalles bridge. They probably always have and probably always will. That’s because that is where the best spawning habitat is, and importantly, the best early juvenile colonization habitat is. Biology and ecological necessity far outweigh the effects of steelhead fishing activity and the CNR fishing regulations in determining where and why steelhead spawn in the river system.
Another consideration about where the CNR fishery is located relates to the uncontrollable effect of the Miner’s Creek slide on the Baker River. If there is a flood year, the Baker will puke turbidity into the Skagit, causing fishing conditions downstream of the Baker to be marginal or worse much of the time. If a flood year and a middle river season coincided, then the fish would have no worries that year from anglers.
Regarding Sauk Bar, the major changes there occurred from the 1990 and then the 1995/96 floods. The quantity of good holding water has been less ever since, but it’s still one of the better pools on the river, just not the premier place it once was. I didn’t notice much change from the October 2003 flood, but I was only up there once this season.
Sincerely,
Salmo g.
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#242649 - 05/06/04 12:57 PM
Re: Chum, endangered on the Skagit?
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Juvenille at Sea
Registered: 03/15/03
Posts: 168
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Guys, Great discussion and input for this topic: Chum, endangered on the Skagit? http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=017720 Smalma - I have one more questions. I did some math with then numbers you provided. Now, I do not have the actual escapement numbers for the years, so I used the target numbers you provided. I also understand there may be significant variation. I calclulated the average estimated harvest compared to the escapement is: Sport 1.84%, commercial/tribal 19.90%. The numbers forecasted for 2004 were derived from the data of previous years, they are purely speculation. Also, you stated, “The three average was 12.77% of the harvest occurred in the river sport fishery.” I don’t buy this number. It was calculated with out any deviation. The 22.76% sport harvest (which is way off from the standard deviation) is a result of a low commercial/tribal harvest. Not an over harvest by sport fisherman. Besides that, it doesn't represent the harvest in relation to the escapement. Now, with this data maybe you could give me an explanation to the benefits of closing the Skagit to the sport harvest of chums. Thanks, Lunch Time
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