The Columbia River coho forecast was recently released, and anglers shouldn't expect off-the-charts fishing in the ocean this summer.

The total forecast, known as the Oregon Production Index (OPI), calls for 276,100 coho to arrive off the coast, compared with an actual return of 536,600 last year. The Columbia River forecast alone is a mere 196,700. Doug Milward, a state Fish and Wildlife salmon resource manager, says the coho news doesn't look good, and ocean coho returns could be comparable to the 1995 to 1998 stretch when time on the water was slim.

While the predicted Columbia coho run looks to be in the tank, many believe that there will be enough to sustain some kind of ocean fishery.

"There are differences between now and the 1990s, when we were in an El Niño weather pattern, compared to now where there's a La Niña pattern," said Mark Cedergreen, president of the Westport Charterboat Association.

El Niño generates a warm inshore water current from South America that moves north, wreaks havoc on cold-water marine life and brings with it predators that feed on fish. On the other hand, La Niña generates cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures.

"The OPI run-size index is low and typical of a couple times in the 1990s, but not too far off from what happened in 2006," Cedergreen said. "Plus we are now selectively fishing for coho [with only hatchery-marked coho kept], and that allows more fishing opportunities than in the 1990s."

Fishing was slow during the 2006 ocean fisheries, Cedergreen said, with some of the lowest coho catches ever.

"Even with the low coho quotas in 2006 nobody hit their catch limits and we went through the entire fishing season without closing down early," he said. "I would suspect it ... Continued@URL... http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin...7&date=20080217