As has been pointed out repeatedly by me and by KK, as well, all this debate stuff doesn't really matter at all...

EC projections now show Obama with 264 electoral votes...6 shy of a win.

McCain has 174.

There are still seven battleground states in play, and McCain must win every single one of them.

He's trailing in six of them.

Fish on...

Todd

Oh, yeah...the most recent popular vote polls show Obama leading from anywhere from 7 to 9 points, too.

Even if he only wins by 5 points on the popular vote, the electoral votes will translate into quite a landslide, likely winning by A LOT.

Fish on...

Todd

I'll send an email to John/Sarah, letting them know to call this off.

Cool, CC me and tell Sarah I got a Job for her after the erection.

I don't believe that anyone has it 'in the bag' although evidently Charles Krauthammer is waving the white flag in his column today.

I view the election as volatile, prone to change, and unstable.

That being said, structurally the race certainly favors Obama, and strategically, McCaint's camp has been a series of disasters, in all probablility due to McCain't himself. His arrogant view of almost everything has led him to the point of being his own worst enemy. His attitude toward the press has been poor, and watch the video with the Des Moines Register for some shining examples of a bitter old fogy pissed at the world.

His temper is now getting the best of him, and as I pointed out months ago, at some point he will probably have a meltdown, as a person, he is unable to treat an opponent like an opponent, preferring to display anger and condescension towards them, when simply acting like a sane adult would score him more votes.


It's been his trademark for years, angry old man, and dangerous to America at this point.

PTSD needs more funding.................

It will certainly be an interesting election. Looks like I'll have to buy a few more lowers and parts kits. Maybe a few more magazines to go with the 50 I have now.

It's time for your daily Prayer to THE ONE!!!!Your Messiah demands daily adulation.....on your knees and don't forget to face East....

It's still too close to call. I still think McCain will win. The electoral map looks like a map of the Civil War. I wonder how well Hilliary Clinton would have done. She probably would have won by a landslide. Obama just doesn't seem to be able to seal the deal. The democratic nominee should have been doing better in this economy. I still think alot of the South will stick with McCain. Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio are still tossups but seem to be in play for Obama. Out West you got Colorado, and Nevada up for grabs.

Look back at Todd's predictions so far and.... it starts to look great for McCain. I can't see how he could ever pull it off, but the Democrats did it again by choosing someone who scares a lot of Americans. I think what is missing in many polls, is that, as Corey's sister said, most people end up voting their principals. They would love to vote for Obama, but in the end can not live with what he stands for. Add in the fear of additonal taxes, and more and more people start to swing toward McCain. The problem is, they don't like McCain and he really doesn't represent them real well. Palin does a much better job. That's why she is so important to this election.

I think she's irrelevant now, and will continue to be irrelevant right through November 4th...

Fish on...

Todd

Well I see a swing on Pollster, pretty much the same swing I see on 538.com, and electoral-vote also.

Definately a swing, but it doesn't seem to be towards McCain't.

You just made that up because it fits your opinion, didn't ya krijackoff ?

Well are all these sites listed below and prediction markets making this up ?

Electoral Vote tallies:

538.com: 333-205
InTrade: 338-200 (314-224 using EV averaging)
EV.com : 338-185 (15 tied)
RCP.com: 353-185

Intrade contracts: Obama: 68% McCain: 32%

538.com Obama win percentage: 84%

RCP National Average: O +5.7

Unfortunately a lot of the Republican supporters exist in the same idealistic, non-reality based plane as the Bush Administration...they just keep on watching Fox and hearing about how everyone is so scared of a Muslim and a Socialist becoming our leaders, and how everyone is flocking to an experienced warhawk and sharp tongued hottie who can see Russia.

Just as in the runup to the Iraq war, and the baffling insistence three years ago that the insurgency was in its "last throes" and that they were just a bunch of "dead enders", when your basic and fundamental assumptions are totally wrong, any opinions or strategies based on them are necessarily off base as well.

Fish on...

Todd

The Obots declared the democratic nomination for Barack forcing Hillary out, using the MSM to convince the public that Barack won. Polls were the main game plan. (well that & not counting votes).

I am not falling for that trick again! Maybe the MSM media can get Obama in again - selected by default & not counting votes. Yeah right! Don't you Obots know that your tactic of "Obama is the winner" is old news & can't possibly fly in the general election. Pull a new trick from your sleeve that doesn't insults our intelligence.

K.k.,
I didn't say the polls were swinging towards McCain. In fact, it doesn't surprise me at all . I just have a feeling that in the end, it will be a lot closer than the polls say. Its easy to get caught up in the frenzy behind Obama, but in the end, when it comes time to vote, I think a lot of them will calm down and vote differently. Not because they like McCain more than Obama, but because they don't like the liberal philosophy or trust Obama. I would love to be able to vote for Obama. I think he brings an energy and potential I have not seen in my life time. Unfortunately, that energy and potential are packaged with a philosophy that is against much of what I believe. He could make changes that are great for our country, but he has as much or more potential to make changes that I hate. Still not sure how I will vote, but I probably will vote against Obamamania more than for something.

So why not vote for Ron Paul, if you have a 'conservative' set of 'values. (I do use the term 'values' loosley here, in conjunction with the term 'conservative', due in large part to the fact that .................well as you pointed out, fear of anything different seems to be the underlying 'value' that republicans embrace.

C'mon, if you think 'Obamamania' is scary, what exactly is it that scares you ?


The Muslim thing ? The Socialist smear? The fact that we might acutally have a President who strings together a coherent sentence and think for himself ?

The very concept that McCain is somehow intellectually or morally superior to anything beyond Bush is a joke.


On one hand you have a candidate who is clear and articulates his policy boldly, with no reservations, and has an actual plan that he goes public with every day .

On the other hand, you have a bitter oild man who can not even muster the support of his own party, loses his train of thought, backed up with some bimbo who thinks winking at a debate audience is a good way to make herself look credible, wrinkling her nose and acting like a 'valley girl' is a good way for her to look 'qualified'.

What is even more pathetic than that, in regards to Palin, is that people buy into that crap, treating the election, and future policy making decisions, like some sort of beauty contest, and would put such a vapid, vacuous non entity as Palin a step away from the White House, behind a 72 year old man when actuarial tables show he has a 1-6 chance of dying before his term is up.

Now that's scary.

Maverick ?

Neither one I'm afraid.

One's been a reliable sidekick to Bush for 8 years, the other is a 'mimic', and who without a cue card and talking points is lost.

Even with them, during the debate when she was asked questions she didin't have notes for, she simply refused to answer, and went back to the talking points she did have.

Just friggin' awe inspiring.......................


"The real maverick turns out to be Barack Obama, who bucked his party's establishment and whose once-lonely positions have been adopted by nearly everyone including even the Bush administration. Nearly everyone, that is, except John McCain. So what happened to him?"

My feeling is that right now, it's not nearly so close as the media makes it out to be...they don't want to let go of the "neck and neck" story...and I can't think of anything that would change the way the trends are heading now.

A draw on the first Presidential debate, which is the one that McCain should have been best of the three on. Regardless of the hype, all the numbers I keep seeing say the public feels that Biden won the VP debate, and by a rather large margin...something like 50 or 52 to 34 or 36, with the other 15 to 18 percent undecided.

The next two Pres. debates will be much harder for McCain.

I just can't see anything coming up that could lead to a turnaround for McCain/Palin, much less lead to the significant spike that would be required to even compete, much less win. Most national polls show the popular vote running 6-9 points up for Obama, and the electoral map shows that without significant turnarounds in several states that McCain will be mathematically eliminated before we here on the west coast even start reporting precincts...

Fish on...

Todd

It bears pointing out that for over 2 months, probably over 3 months, the media also declared it was neck and neck between Hillary and Obam, even though is was obvious that there was no way Obama was not going to win, the numbers were just too much in his favor. Yet to sell a newspaper, or fill a column inch, the story went on and on.

Same on the republican side. McCain't was the obvious choice back in December, but yet all sorts of converstaions went on about Huckabee and the Southern vote, Romney and the rust belt, and of course, the story went on and on.

In this case, and as I have stated before I think it's still fairly volatile out there, Mccain is going to have a tough time carrying the day. For me, it's not over, but structurally, and looking at the underlying crosstabs, demographically, Obama certainly has an edge that seems to be growing.

Viewing the Senate and House polls shows that more and more indy voters are swinging Dem.

Next week, McCain't will sink to new lows, forever damaging his honor, his dignity, and hir legacy, as advised to by the former Bush strategists who now run him like the vapid mouthpiece he has become.

It's a shame an essentially decent guy has sold his soul to the lowest form of American political life in order to try and win an election.

He's become a gutter dwelling lowlife, and so far, the polls reflect it.

It's all just a liberal conspiracy...viva la Diebold!

Fish on...

Todd

You ask what I am scared of? It's the same thing that made me nervous after 9-11 and watching Bush get what ever he wanted. I was against the war then, at least for the reasons he was giving (still not sure if Iran or Israel had more to do with it). I was laughed at by almost everyone I knew who felt we had to go, mostly because they were willing to give Bush anything he wanted. Specifically I am nervous that
1. He will have the Congress backing to introduce more social programs and raise taxes (remember Carter had a 90% tax on the top end and it was killing our economy).

2. That he will be able to get who ever he wants into the Supreme Court.

3. That he will be able to usurp more of our national security to the UN.

4. That he will be able to use tax laws to stifle religious freedom more (specifically by insisting that certain values are prejudical or political, such as believing homosexuality or abortion is wrong. Already you risk loosing your tax exemption just by having a candidate speak, even if the opposing view is invited to speak but won't.),

5. Increase labor laws to the point of socialism. Maybe by raising the minimum wage, giving more power to the unions, trying to insist on equal pay for jobs that are considered equal, more sick leave, more benefits, more job protection, more vacation, forced profit sharing, better or earlier retirement, or other worker rights over employer rights,

6. Strength unions beyond what is necessary.

7. And last, who knows, with that much power, almost anything is possible. He may be able to accomplish what Bush hasn't. Another terroristic attack and he may be able to get more gun laws in effect. Restrict speach more. Lock up more people without questioning. It is clear most Americans are willing to sacrifice liberty for safety, something I am not.

As I have said before, much of what Bush did scares me. I hated it then. With Obama we have someone with the same powers and more popularity and blind following. It would scare me no matter who it was, conservative or liberal. I guess I am more libertarian then I would like to admit, but I hate government having any unnecessary power in my life. In the end, I probably would be less nervous if congress was republican. But as it is, he could even have a super majority. Maybe he really is clean and will not sell us out. He hasn't convinced me of that yet, rather he seems to be as much as a political opportunist as the rest. Bush gave away the bank with very little public support, what could he give away.

And, for clarification, I really haven't heard him layout any real plans. Saying that you will overhaul the Health care system or save social security, without any details, is not a plan, its just rhetoric. Something all the Candidates are good at.

Ron Paul, well, if it is a given that Obama will win, he very well may get my vote. If he could win, he would get my vote. If it is close I may hold my nose and vote for McCain. The truth is, in the beginning Obama may have gotten my vote. The more he talked and the more people started bowing down and worshipping him, the more I decided I didn't want to take the chance of what his idea of change meant. If he comes in and does what Clinton did, I probably will vote him another term.

It won't be close in Washington, Obama will win this state as it stands today, and unlikely to change at this point.

A vote for Ron Paul is a vote for a libertarian form form of conservatism, while a vote for McCain't is a vote for continuation of the very Bush policies you described above, the ones you said you don't like.

I don't like them either, that's why I will be voting for Obama.

In your bullet point list, it seems like there an awful lot of 'maybe', 'might', 'could' , while some of the other points are so without foundation as to be purely speculative in nature.

That would be like me saying if McCain't wins I would be afraid that we'd have a manchurian candidate for President who was mentally unstable from prolonged periods of 'enhanced interrogation techniques', and would likely fill key positions with poorly qualified idealogues, while staffing the administration with lobbyists from his campaign staff. Beholdent to the same interests that funded and ran Bush's campign, he would be directed to continue the policies of the last eight years, further bankrupting the government while transferring billions in taxpayer dollars to the corporations who off shore jobs, bank accounts, and tax liability, all the while with a taxpayer subsidy for doing so.


Well, so maybe I should look for an example that was a little further from the truth for it to be a fair comparison with you post.............

After all, nothing in my 'description' of a McCain't presidency is fabricated from whole cloth.

Face it, you think Obama is a 'boogeyman', the 'Socialist Muslim'.........

KK,
Those are all good things to worry that McCain may do. I know those are the things that I worry about. I just hope that if he is elected a democratic majority in both houses can keep him in check better than they did Bush.

I am not scared of the boogy man, but yes, I do think he is a socialist at heart. Did you hear his bit about how unfair it was that a waitress had to work so hard for so little money? I guess he thinks that it is up to the government to increase her wages. But to what? It kind of reminds me of the teachers union pointing out that a teacher has as much or more schooling than a engineer, so they should get paid the same or more. Who cares if it takes a 3.9 gpa to get into the electrial engineering program at UW and a 2.0 to get into the teaching program.

Latest numbers and they don't look good for McCAin / Palin. The "MAVERICKS"
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://politicalwire.com/

October 06, 2008

WCU/NPR Poll: Obama Ahead By Ten In Pennsylvania
Political Wire got an advance look at a new West Chester University/NPR poll in Pennsylvania that shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 52% to 42%, in the key battleground state.


2 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008


A Limited Town Hall
Lynn Sweet previews the rules for Tuesday night's town hall presidential debate moderated by NBC's Tom Brokaw.

The questions will "be culled from a group of 100 to 150 uncommitted likely voters in the audience and another one-third to come via the Internet." Gallup "has the job of making sure the questioners reflect the demographic makeup of the nation."

"An audience member will not be allowed to switch questions. Under the deal, the moderator may not ask followups or make comments. The person who asks the question will not be allowed a follow-up either, and his or her microphone will be turned off after the question is read. A camera shot will only be shown of the person asking -- not reacting."

"While there will be director's chairs (with backs and foot rests), McCain and Obama will be allowed to stand -- but they can't roam past their 'designated area' to be marked on the stage. McCain and Obama are not supposed to ask each other direct questions."


6 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

Fox/Rasmussen: Obama Gains in Key Swing States
The latest batch of Fox News/Rasmussen swing state polls shows that Sen. Barack Obama has made significant gains in Colorado, Missouri and Florida. In Ohio and Virginia, there was little change from the week before.

Florida: Obama 52%, McCain 45%

Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

Missouri: Obama 50%, McCain 47%

Virginia: Obama 50%, McCain 48%

Ohio: McCain 48%, McCain 47%


5 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

The Clinton Charisma
The Clinton Charisma: A Legacy of Leadership In the mail: The Clinton Charisma by Donald T. Phillips, author of the bestselling Lincoln on Leadership.

The book is "a fascinating, prescriptive guide that reveals the former president's complex leadership techniques, including his attention to public opinion, his ability to take quick corrective action, and his efficient damage control in the face of political and personal difficulty. From diversity to decisiveness, from consensus to compromise, each chapter explores how Clinton employed important leadership principles and the ways in which they were -- or were not -- effective."


0 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

WP/ABC Poll: Obama Leads By Six in Ohio
Sen. Barack Obama "is riding economic discontent to an advantage in Ohio, bolstered in part by financially stressed voters in the state's hard-hit industrial belt," according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Obama leads Sen. John McCain, 51% to 45%, in the key swing state.


5 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama Widens National Lead
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that independent voters are starting to swing behind Sen. Barack Obama, "who continue to benefits from economic turmoil and the public response to their debate performances."

Obama now leads Sen. John McCain by six points, 49% to 43%, up from just two points in the same poll two weeks ago.

Update: Interestingly, though most recent national polls show Obama increasing his lead, the latest CBS News poll has the race closer with Obama just edging McCain, 48% to 45%.


3 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

CNN Poll: Obama Expands National Lead
The latest CNN/Opinion Research survey shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain nationally by eight points, 53% to 45%.

Key finding: "Low approval numbers for the current commander-in-chief may be part of the reason Obama's fortunes are rising in the latest survey: Only 24% of those polled approve of President Bush's job performance, an all-time low for a CNN survey... And that's bad news for McCain, because the poll suggests a growing number of Americans believe the Republican nominee would have the same policies as the current GOP president. Fifty-six percent say McCain's policies would be the same as Bush's, up from 50% a month ago."


55 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

Martin Closes In On Senate Seat
There are now two polls in Georgia that show Jim Martin (D) has chance to knock off Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), a Senate seat once thought completely safe.

SurveyUSA: Chambliss 46%, Martin 44%

Research 2000: Chambliss 45%, Martin 44%


21 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

PPP Poll: Obama Expands Lead in North Carolina
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama now leading Sen. John McCain, 50% to 44%.

For the first time, "Obama is earning over 80% of the vote from self identified Democrats, and that's fueling a four point increase in his lead in the state compared to last week. He now has an 82% to 15% lead with voters in his own party. His share of the Democratic vote had been anywhere between 69% and 76% in PPP's previous five surveys of the state."

Interesting: Obama's numbers rise every time he makes a visit to the state. McCain hasn't visited in five months.


44 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

Democracy Corps: Obama Up By Six in Ohio
A new Democracy Corps poll in Ohio finds Sen. Barack Obama now leading Sen. John McCain, 49% to 43%.

Obama's lead is built "on an impressive 48% to 35% edge among independent voters. McCain's attempt to seize the mantle of change is falling on deaf ears in Ohio as by 24%, voters in the Buckeye state believe Obama, not McCain, is the reformer and by 18%, Ohioans believe Obama will bring the right kind of change. And in a state where the economy is king, Obama's aggressive positioning of the economic contrast with McCain has produced an 11-point Obama lead on which candidate will do a better job on the economy."


43 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

Suffolk Poll: Obama Crushing McCain in Virginia
A new Suffolk University poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by a stunning 12 points, 51% to 39%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: "Barack Obama has built a coalition of suburban DC area progressives from the north, African-American voters from the south, and young voters statewide. That broad-based support suggests a 44-year Republican run in the Old Dominion State, dating back to Lyndon Johnson's victory in 1964, is in jeopardy."

Key finding: "The poll shows last Thursday's vice presidential debate was a net plus for the Democratic ticket. Exactly three-quarters (75%) of likely voters watched and scored Joe Biden (46%) the clear winner over Sarah Palin (26%), while 20% said neither won the debate. When asked if the debate affected their presidential selection, 32% said it made them more likely to vote Obama, while 18% said the debate moved them to McCain, and 47% said the debate didn't affect their decision."

Earlier today, a SurveyUSA poll also showed Obama with a double-digit lead in Virginia.


64 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

SurveyUSA: Obama Way Ahead in New Hampshire
A new SurveyUSA poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Barack Obama leading by an astonishing 13 points, 53% to 40%.

A little history: "New Hampshire voted Republican in 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988 and 2000. New Hampshire voted Democrat in 1992, 1996 and 2004, but no Democrat running for President in New Hampshire has received more than 50% of the vote in the past 44 years."

Key findings: Obama holds a 22-point advantage among women, 29-point advantage among young voters, 21-point advantage among Moderates, 18-point advantage among those who consider themselves an intellectual, 24-point advantage among lower-income voters, and 23-point advantage among college graduates.


20 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

SurveyUSA: Obama Pulls Away in Virginia
A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by ten points, 53% to 43%.

Since a similar poll conducted just after the Republican convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

Key finding: McCain no longer leads in any region of the state.

http://politicalwire.com/

New numbers are putting McCain/ Palin in the dust. Sorry Dogfish and Dan S. Ron Paul didn't make the poll.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
The new negative adds McCain's campaing are running aren't helping and in fact are hurting among undecided voters. What else does the old man have if he has to resort to negative adds?
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/mccain_once_opposed_negative_a.html

No doubt some of the wingnuts here can read, and when they read this, they tend to get more irrational. It's a trend on most of the political boards I frequent, and also most of the fishing boards. Deperate attacks designed to rally the knuckle dragging base don't really work on undecideds, but that's the last and only tool McCain't has in his tool box. On every issue, he's on the wrong side, as far as most Americans view it.

What you are watching, if any of you are watching, is the last gasps of the Neo Con wing of the Republican Party, an inevitable turn of events,.
What little dignity 'The Gelding' has left he is throwing out the window in his as far failed attempt to win an election.

He comes up for re-election in 2010, where he will lose in Arizona.

As a matter of fact, the Republicans have another slew of loser incumbents who come up that year, and so look for them to lose even more seats, if Obama has anything close to a 50% or above approval rating come 2010.

Didn't figure he would.......but that's ok. I never listened to Michael Jackson, never drove a Ford Escort, and never watched American Idol, so I've never been one to be part of the majority of Americans.

Ron Paul 2008

Projections have it at 345 for Obama and 193 for McCain. Let us see what happens after a week of negative adds if the numbers move in the old mans favor.

That's the platform I'm looking for in any candidate.

If chuches want to get into politics, they should start paying taxes on those Escalades the preachers drive and those 100 acre Mega Churches with 600,000 congregants charged 10% to 15% of their annual income.

Unions mean middle class incomes, healthcare, and freedom from wage-slavery. I guess you prefer outsourcing. Outsourcing needs to stop--now.

Supreme Court? We dont need more Scalias or his lil bitch-puppet Thomas.

The UN was nice because it kept aggressive a$$hole wanna-be dictators from invading nations on trumped-up excuses just to plunder their natural resources. Sound familiar? How has the UN usurped our national security? Please explain.

I didnt know Kraft had a new flavor of Kool-Aid called "John Birch Berry Fruity."

New social programs and higher taxes are not going to fly in this economy. Can't afford the social programs and taxing your way to prosperity has never worked.

Thomas and Scalia both voted against the taking of private property for developers.

The U.N. has done a fantastic job in Somalia, has stopped Iran dead in it's tracks in atomic weapons production and has excelled in every area where it has exerted it's influence. Yeah right.

Churches and politics? Just ask the Reverend Jeremiah who is moving into a multi-million dollar home. Throw Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton into the mix and you've got some fine makings for religious freedom and very questionable tax obligations.

One of the two battleground states leaning towards McCain't...+1 in OH in the above list...is now polling at +3, and moving, for Obama.

McSame still has to win virtually every battleground state, and with the exception of Georgia, is unlikely to win any of them.

It's all over but the right wing whining.

Fish on...

Todd

Lets just for a minute pretend Obammy loses..what happens next?
rioting the likes we haven't seen since Rodney King. As with the OJ murder trial, he got off only beacause of what a conviction would have caused. So Obammy is going to win it by threat of total anarchy should he lose.

Public opinion, 2nd grade level math, and logic say it just ain't gonna happen.

He's going to win because he had has a significantly higher public opinion.

Fish on...

Todd