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#785772 - 09/13/12 11:49 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Hankster]
Somethingsmellsf Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 12/15/02
Posts: 4022
Loc: Ahhhhh, damn dog!
Since Hank recites polls so much here is a couple for him. smile


Polls: Obama holds the edge in Florida, Ohio and Virginia


After two political conventions and heading into the post-Labor Day sprint, President Barack Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the key battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of each of these three states.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/...d-virginia?lite

Fishy
_________________________
NRA Life member

The idea of a middle class life is slowly drifting away as each and every day we realize that our nation is becoming more of a corporatacracy.

I think name-calling is the right way to handle this one/Dan S

We're here from the WDFW and we're here to help--Uhh Ohh!




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#785773 - 09/14/12 12:03 AM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Somethingsmellsf]
Hankster Offline
2-Points

Registered: 01/24/07
Posts: 31834
Loc: Town in the North Bay Area
NFL

wink
_________________________
“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
-Eric Hoffer

Modern journalism is all about deciding which facts the public shouldn't know because they might reflect badly on Democrats





Top
#785785 - 09/14/12 01:13 AM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: ]
Piper
Unregistered


I got a great deal this year - I could have payed the same Monthly expenditure as last year, but only be covered for major medical (with a 2k deductible) or I could pay an extra 20% per month - in addition to a $100 surcharge for a working spouse... for the same coverage as the year before

JFC
I can't wait till november this year for open enrollement...

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#785825 - 09/14/12 10:34 AM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: ]
Illyrian Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 12/20/09
Posts: 1478
Loc: Spokane, wa
chuck S sure as hell makes more sensible posts than the mole bwp.


Edited by Illyrian (09/14/12 10:35 AM)
Edit Reason: typo

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#785964 - 09/15/12 04:52 AM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Somethingsmellsf]
Fast and Furious Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 3164
Originally Posted By: Somethingsmellsf
Since Hank recites polls so much here is a couple for him. smile


Polls: Obama holds the edge in Florida, Ohio and Virginia


After two political conventions and heading into the post-Labor Day sprint, President Barack Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the key battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of each of these three states.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/...d-virginia?lite

Fishy



Ive been picking up details about these polls.

They often over sample democrats from 3-12 percent more and they also do it, on individual voter blocks. One recent poll counted the same percentage of black votes in the poll as obama got in 08. He isnt likely to get the same level of turnout and he is likely going to get fewer total votes this time.

Most of the polls are registered voters, until the last couple weeks, when accuracy counts.
Likely voters are more accurate, because enthusiasm counts.
Some polls were so bad, they actually increased the vote totals from O8 based on the poll.
Daily track polls can be three days or up to five days. That can affect how the bounce is counted.
What you dont see is the undecided. The undecided breaks for the challenger by large margins. The percentage of undecided can vary from state to state.

When you look at right track wrong track, it favors Romney.
In most cases, Obama cant hit 50%
Romney voters are more enthused
Then you have issues like Obamacare, which over 50% perhaps 60% want repealed.
No president has won relection without getting more votes than in the first election. Bush added 11.6 million votes in 04.
No president has won re-election with UE over 7.9 or 8%
Obama keeps going back to some states he locked up easily. Why?

Obama won 52.9 to about 46% about 7%. Lose 4% in the rights states and the election is tight but goes the other way.

Time will tell.

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#785974 - 09/15/12 10:56 AM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Fast and Furious]
Dan S. Offline
It all boils down to this - I'm right, everyone else is wrong, and anyone who disputes this is clearly a dumbfuck.

Registered: 03/07/99
Posts: 15207
Loc: SE Olympia, WA
lol
_________________________
She was standin' alone over by the juke box, like she'd something to sell.
I said "baby, what's the goin' price?" She told me to go to hell.

Bon Scott - Shot Down in Flames

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#785975 - 09/15/12 11:00 AM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Fast and Furious]
Illahee Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 05/22/05
Posts: 2611
Here's the only poll that makes any difference, win this one and your in the White House.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

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#785978 - 09/15/12 11:27 AM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Illahee]
Hankster Offline
2-Points

Registered: 01/24/07
Posts: 31834
Loc: Town in the North Bay Area
Originally Posted By: freespool
Here's the only poll that makes any difference, win this one and your in the White House.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Correction..the only thing that makes any difference is how that map looks on election day. wink
_________________________
“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
-Eric Hoffer

Modern journalism is all about deciding which facts the public shouldn't know because they might reflect badly on Democrats





Top
#785979 - 09/15/12 11:35 AM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Hankster]
Illahee Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 05/22/05
Posts: 2611
The only difference will be a larger margin of victory.

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#785981 - 09/15/12 11:43 AM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Illahee]
Hankster Offline
2-Points

Registered: 01/24/07
Posts: 31834
Loc: Town in the North Bay Area
Originally Posted By: freespool
The only difference will be a larger margin of victory.

rofl
_________________________
“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
-Eric Hoffer

Modern journalism is all about deciding which facts the public shouldn't know because they might reflect badly on Democrats





Top
#785986 - 09/15/12 01:18 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Hankster]
Illahee Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 05/22/05
Posts: 2611
Originally Posted By: Hankster
Originally Posted By: freespool
The only difference will be a larger margin of victory.

rofl


How about a little wager there Hanky, if O wins you stop posting and C&P'ing, and if Mit wins I'll stop all partisan comments?
Have we got a bet?

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#785988 - 09/15/12 01:44 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Illahee]
Hankster Offline
2-Points

Registered: 01/24/07
Posts: 31834
Loc: Town in the North Bay Area
rofl


Not a chance freespooly. I'll be posting (along with any C&P I see fit to post) until I'm dead, cremated and my cremains are dropped in my favorite salmon fishing water. You in turn can continue with all of your partisan comments, of which I'm certain there will be many.

Do we have a deal?
_________________________
“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
-Eric Hoffer

Modern journalism is all about deciding which facts the public shouldn't know because they might reflect badly on Democrats





Top
#785994 - 09/15/12 02:58 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Hankster]
Illahee Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 05/22/05
Posts: 2611
Originally Posted By: Hankster
rofl


Not a chance freespooly. I'll be posting (along with any C&P I see fit to post) until I'm dead, cremated and my cremains are dropped in my favorite salmon fishing water. You in turn can continue with all of your partisan comments, of which I'm certain there will be many.

Do we have a deal?



Just as I thought, you know as well as I do what the outcome will be.
Better stock up on guns and ammo now and avoid the rush.

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#785996 - 09/15/12 03:03 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Illahee]
Hankster Offline
2-Points

Registered: 01/24/07
Posts: 31834
Loc: Town in the North Bay Area
Originally Posted By: freespool
Originally Posted By: Hankster
rofl


Not a chance freespooly. I'll be posting (along with any C&P I see fit to post) until I'm dead, cremated and my cremains are dropped in my favorite salmon fishing water. You in turn can continue with all of your partisan comments, of which I'm certain there will be many.

Do we have a deal?



Just as I thought, you know as well as I do what the outcome will be.
Better stock up on guns and ammo now and avoid the rush.

The guns and ammo have already been bought up by "those that cling to their guns and religion".

Didn't you hear about the gun buying surge in '08?

smile
_________________________
“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
-Eric Hoffer

Modern journalism is all about deciding which facts the public shouldn't know because they might reflect badly on Democrats





Top
#785997 - 09/15/12 03:07 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Hankster]
Illahee Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 05/22/05
Posts: 2611
Originally Posted By: Hankster
Originally Posted By: freespool
Originally Posted By: Hankster
rofl


Not a chance freespooly. I'll be posting (along with any C&P I see fit to post) until I'm dead, cremated and my cremains are dropped in my favorite salmon fishing water. You in turn can continue with all of your partisan comments, of which I'm certain there will be many.

Do we have a deal?



Just as I thought, you know as well as I do what the outcome will be.
Better stock up on guns and ammo now and avoid the rush.

The guns and ammo have already been bought up by "those that cling to their guns and religion".

Didn't you hear about the gun buying surge in '08?

smile



Hanky, all hat, no cowboy.

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#785999 - 09/15/12 03:12 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Illahee]
Hankster Offline
2-Points

Registered: 01/24/07
Posts: 31834
Loc: Town in the North Bay Area
I never claimed to be a cowboy.
_________________________
“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
-Eric Hoffer

Modern journalism is all about deciding which facts the public shouldn't know because they might reflect badly on Democrats





Top
#786001 - 09/15/12 03:24 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Hankster]
RowVsWade Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/08/06
Posts: 3390
Loc: Island Time
Just to take the C&P heat off'a Hank I'll throw this up...



Why Romney Will Win
By Dick Morris - September 14, 2012

Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.

Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll -- taken after the conventions -- Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen's state-by-state likely voter data indicates a tie in the the battleground states.

But it's not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining '04 and '08 but skewing their samples to '08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in '04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in '08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered "yes" for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.

For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say 47-45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama's base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win in this sample by 46-45.

And then there is the enthusiasm gap. All recent polling suggests that Republican- and GOP-leaning Independents are 13 points more enthusiastic and following the race more closely than their Democratic counterparts. If the grassroots do their job, this will yield a stronger Romney vote.

Finally, when every poll among every sample has Obama below 50 percent of the vote, it is most likely that the undecided have, in fact, decided not to back his re-election.

But to crawl out of the statistical weeds, let's examine the state of the partisan dialogue. Former President Bill Clinton made a huge blunder when he accepted the Republican challenge and flatly -- and loudly -- asserted that we are, in fact, better off than we were four years ago. Polls show that only about 33 percent of voters agree, while close to half do not see the world that way.

Finally, both parties seemed happily to embrace the same formulation of the difference between them. Both agreed that the Republican Party is based on a philosophy of individual responsibility. Obama articulated it as, "You're on your own." Republicans put it differently: "We'll get government off your back." Democrats said theirs was a party that would lend you a hand.

Gallup measured these two options, and voters chose "leave me alone" over "lend me a hand" by 54-35.

Over the long haul, these are the questions that will dominate voting intentions. The function of the conventions is to formulate and articulate each party's view of the world. The fact that they were so similar and that each was willing to trust its fate to the question of, "Are you better off?" means that the Romney message will have a very strong advantage. The decision of the Democrats to embrace this choice and not to move to the center will make it impossible for them either to re-elect their president or to command a majority in the new Senate.
_________________________
"...the pool hall I loved as a kid is now a 7-11..."

If you don't like our prices bring your wife down and we'll dicker.

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#786002 - 09/15/12 03:40 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: RowVsWade]
Hankster Offline
2-Points

Registered: 01/24/07
Posts: 31834
Loc: Town in the North Bay Area
Yikes! Now Toddler and K(up)K(ake) are gonna throw out a bunch of rofl and calling you an idiot for posting a Morris C&P. You might as well throw up a Krauthammer and a Will C&P now...you're doomed anyway.

grin
_________________________
“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
-Eric Hoffer

Modern journalism is all about deciding which facts the public shouldn't know because they might reflect badly on Democrats





Top
#786037 - 09/15/12 08:14 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: Hankster]
RowVsWade Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/08/06
Posts: 3390
Loc: Island Time
I 'spose an Ann Coulter would be too much? grin

Probably exacerbate their hemorrhoids which could cause a cerebral bleed. rofl
_________________________
"...the pool hall I loved as a kid is now a 7-11..."

If you don't like our prices bring your wife down and we'll dicker.

Top
#786053 - 09/15/12 09:57 PM Re: Job Creation: Pesky facts getting in the way.. [Re: RowVsWade]
Illyrian Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 12/20/09
Posts: 1478
Loc: Spokane, wa
Aw you guys can't have all the fun, Hw

September Surprise
The storming of the U.S. embassy in Cairo and the brutal murder of U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, produced chaos this week in the so-called mainstream media. Instead of asking about how the heck this happen in the aftermath of the Obama administration's Arab Spring euphoria, "reporters" started looking for scapegoats.

The potentates of the press first focused their ire on something few of them even had seen -- a puerile Internet video titled "Innocence of Muslims" -- and then they turned their guns on Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. As usual, the O-Team's media cheerleaders got it all wrong.

As Americans in Manhattan, Washington, D.C., and Pennsylvania participated in solemn ceremonies honoring our nearly 3,000 countrymen killed in the terror attacks 11 years ago, angry crowds were gathering around our embassy in Cairo. The U.S. Embassy responded by issuing an apologetic statement condemning "the continuing efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims." Instead of defusing the situation, the crowd swelled and stormed the embassy, tore down the U.S. flag and replaced it with a radical Islamic banner.

Meanwhile, 700 miles west of Cairo, a well-armed Islamist paramilitary force was laying siege to the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi. By 8:30 p.m. EDT, U.S. and international news services were reporting that Americans had been killed and wounded in Benghazi – without specifying numbers or names. Many reports speculated that the Libyan onslaught was part of a growing "spontaneous" protest against the "Innocence" video.

At 10 p.m. EDT, the State Department finally issued a written statement from America's most-ever-traveled secretary of state in which Hillary Clinton condemned "in the strongest terms the attack on our mission in Benghazi today" and confirmed "that one of our State Department officers was killed." But in a reference to the offensive Internet video, the press release also noted that "the United States deplores any intentional effort to denigrate the religious beliefs of others." There was no mention of the attack on our embassy in Cairo.

Less than a half-hour later, the Romney campaign lifted an embargo on a previously prepared statement: "I am outraged by the attacks on American diplomatic missions in Libya and Egypt and by the death of an American consulate worker in Benghazi. It's disgraceful that the Obama Administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks." It was the first "official" reference to the events in Cairo.

Shortly after midnight, the Obama campaign – not the White House – sent an email to reporters: "We're shocked that, at a time when the United States of America is confronting the tragic death of one of our diplomatic officers in Libya, Governor Romney would choose to launch a political attack." But once again, no mention of the attack on the embassy.

By dawn on September 12, it was known that Stevens and three other consulate personnel were among the dead in Benghazi. Since then, the media feeding frenzy has been nonstop. So, too, have anti-American "protests" -- in Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan.

On September 12, in a Telemundo interview that was supposed to focus on his outreach to Hispanic voters, the president was asked about the U.S.-Egypt relationship. In his response, Obama said, "I don't think that we would consider them to be an ally, but we don't consider them an enemy. They're a new government." That statement prompted another round of diplomatic doublespeak from White House and State Department officials – and demands from some on Capitol Hill to cut economic and military aid to Egypt totaling more than $1.5 billion this year. Those calls finally prompted Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood's hand-picked president of Egypt, to promise better protection for U.S. diplomats and missions in Cairo.

Here's what the media elites aren't telling us about these developments:

Focus on the "Innocence" Internet video as a pretext for all this is simply wrong. Ayman al-Zawahiri -- Osama bin Laden's successor -- issued a far more relevant video, urging Libyans to "strike back" at Americans for killing his operations chief, Abu Yahya al-Libi, in a "targeted attack" from a UAV. So much for the O-Team's claim that al- Qaeda is "all but finished."

The myth of the "Arab Spring" has been exposed. We are seeing not the rise of democracy but the imposition of neo-Nazi regimes devoted to imposing Sharia throughout the region.

Gutting our defense budget, Obama's "apologetic diplomacy," kowtowing to foreign potentates, abandoning our ally Israel, delaying the installation of ballistic missile defenses and "leading from behind" have not worked. Nor have "harsh sanctions against Iran" deterred the ayatollahs in Tehran from the race to acquire nuclear weapons.

It's now up to the Romney campaign to explain how he would do better. He has six weeks to do it. That's no surprise.
Oliver North | September 14,

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