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#914415 - 11/28/14 01:43 PM A bit of high water.
ondarvr Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 09/07/05
Posts: 1882
Loc: Spokane WA
Lots of big trees floating past, we haven't had water this high in a very long time. Almost had a very nice new picnic table, it got stuck in the yard, then a big tree came through and crushed it.

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#914416 - 11/28/14 01:48 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: ondarvr]
RognSue Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 08/14/06
Posts: 2508
Loc: edmonds
61,800 n climbing, you might see a cabin float by soon... Hunker down n be safe !

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#914418 - 11/28/14 02:09 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: RognSue]
Sky-Guy Offline
The Tide changed

Registered: 08/31/00
Posts: 7232
Loc: Everett
Same thing down on the Green, never seen it as high in a few years we've had property here below Whitney bridge., it's way up into the pastures. With the rain we've been having all AM I dont expect it to start dropping anytime soon.
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#914439 - 11/28/14 04:33 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: Sky-Guy]
Driftin' Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 04/29/06
Posts: 1740
Loc: Offshore
A good time to be tying flies/gear...

...or going duck hunting....

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#914443 - 11/28/14 04:57 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: Driftin']
cobble cruiser Offline
~B-F-D~

Registered: 03/27/09
Posts: 2256
Cant wait! Ive actually been rooting for the rain to design a few new channels. Rediscovery of an old river is always fun. Maybe well get a few of those old troughs back that used to be so good. This ones definitely a game changer for sure. smile
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#914468 - 11/28/14 11:02 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: ]
stonefish Offline
King of the Beach

Registered: 12/11/02
Posts: 5201
Loc: Carkeek Park
It was just a bit wet today, but the fishing was good.
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#914471 - 11/28/14 11:49 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: stonefish]
supcoop Offline
Lady Killer Deluxe

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 1132
Loc: Kirkland
Originally Posted By: stonefish
It was just a bit wet today, but the fishing was good.


Fishing for???

Src in the salt?

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#914475 - 11/29/14 12:25 AM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: supcoop]
stonefish Offline
King of the Beach

Registered: 12/11/02
Posts: 5201
Loc: Carkeek Park
Originally Posted By: supcoop
Originally Posted By: stonefish
It was just a bit wet today, but the fishing was good.


Fishing for???

Src in the salt?


Yep....water colored up from all the dirty creeks dumping into the canal but the fish didn't seem to care.
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#914477 - 11/29/14 12:48 AM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: stonefish]
supcoop Offline
Lady Killer Deluxe

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 1132
Loc: Kirkland
Nice!

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#914516 - 11/29/14 07:00 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: supcoop]
Jerry Garcia Offline



Registered: 10/13/00
Posts: 9160
Loc: everett
Drove up the Sky yesterday, water over the road in a couple of spots on Ben Howard. On up to index, lots of wood racing past.
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#914561 - 11/30/14 10:29 AM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: Jerry Garcia]
Smalma Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/25/01
Posts: 2844
Loc: Marysville
CC -
Not sure how much channel changing you will find after the river drop.

While a flow at Goldbar over 60,000 is a significant event it was hardly a major flood. Over the last 25 years there have been a half dozen floods that were significantly larger than this weeks. Included in that period was the huge event in November of 2006. That 2006 event had twice the volume of water and was nearly 6.5 feet higher than the one this week.

Regardless this flood this week could hardly been timed worst for the basin's chums. Much of this years spawn would have been in their most "tender" stage where even the slightest jostling causing mortalities.

Curt

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#914583 - 11/30/14 04:21 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: Smalma]
On The Swing Offline
Spawner

Registered: 02/06/03
Posts: 783
Been like that on alot of our streams this year and good point curt. We seem to have lost a bunch of summer chum redds out here in hood canal too. Be interesting to see what happens is 2 or 3 years
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#914587 - 11/30/14 05:20 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: On The Swing]
skyrise Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 03/16/00
Posts: 328
Loc: snohomish, wa
Maybe a good thing to remind the Dept about when they are setting fishing seasons.
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#914602 - 11/30/14 07:20 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: skyrise]
On The Swing Offline
Spawner

Registered: 02/06/03
Posts: 783
They know about it..the field bio's mention info like this and etc all the time every year. The data just doesn't get used, cause it conflicts with their agenda
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#914603 - 11/30/14 07:24 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: skyrise]
Smalma Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/25/01
Posts: 2844
Loc: Marysville
Skyrise-
The current forecast method for Snohomish (and other "S" river chum) is fry based. A regression is used based on the fry abundance on various Sound beaches. As such the driver for the forecast is not how many redds there may have been but rather how well the redds produced fish to those beaches.

The method essentially accounts for all freshwater variables but there of course remains the big mystery of how those fry will do in the big blue.

Curt

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#914637 - 11/30/14 11:40 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: Smalma]
cobble cruiser Offline
~B-F-D~

Registered: 03/27/09
Posts: 2256
Originally Posted By: Smalma
CC -
Not sure how much channel changing you will find after the river drop.

While a flow at Goldbar over 60,000 is a significant event it was hardly a major flood. Over the last 25 years there have been a half dozen floods that were significantly larger than this weeks. Included in that period was the huge event in November of 2006. That 2006 event had twice the volume of water and was nearly 6.5 feet higher than the one this week.

Regardless this flood this week could hardly been timed worst for the basin's chums. Much of this years spawn would have been in their most "tender" stage where even the slightest jostling causing mortalities.



Curt

Hmmm good point on the chum. Definitely didnt think of that. Friend of mine lives at the mouth of the wallas and said the far bank accross the river had moved a bit below the side channel. Havent seen it myself yet.























Edited by cobble cruiser (11/30/14 11:44 PM)
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#914659 - 12/01/14 10:44 AM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: cobble cruiser]
ondarvr Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 09/07/05
Posts: 1882
Loc: Spokane WA
It's been quit a while since the Sky has been this high, and then it stayed high for several days, the duration of the high water has a great deal to do with the amount of change.

There were more trees than normal careening down river, so I assume there were some changes upriver somewhere.

The recently modified bank directly upstream of my property held up pretty well, but it channeled the flow directly at my bank and eroded away at least 20' of it. With this bank being moved back 20' the flow is now directed towards the center of my yard, I would say with a couple more high water events it will cut my yard about in half.

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#914661 - 12/01/14 11:40 AM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: ondarvr]
Smalma Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/25/01
Posts: 2844
Loc: Marysville
Ondarvr -
Sorry to hear about the erosion on your property.

According to USGS records the peak flow at Goldbar in this recent event was 62,000 cfs. Over the last decade there have been at least 4 events at least that large; peak on 1/11 reached 63,900, the one in 1/2009 reached 74,000, the one in 11/2006 reached 129,000 and the one in 1/2005 reached 74,600.

You are correct that the duration of the event can be key to the amount of damage a flood can do. According to the flow records at Goldbar flood stage is about 30,000 cfs and this weeks event was at that level or above for about 24 hours. During the 2009 event it was at or above the 30,000 level for about 35 hours.

I suspect that it speaks volumes about the sad shape the Skykomish basin is in when we can see floods the size (discharge twice the "flood threshold") or lager than this weeks event multiple times a decade.

Curt

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#914662 - 12/01/14 11:45 AM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: Smalma]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7411
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
It gets worse in urban areas. What used to a 2-year flood is now monthly in many urban streams. Or was in the early 90s and I don't see that it is getting any better.

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#914675 - 12/01/14 02:07 PM Re: A bit of high water. [Re: ondarvr]
ondarvr Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 09/07/05
Posts: 1882
Loc: Spokane WA
When I say the duration was longer, I mean that while it wasn't over flood stage (15') for more than one night, it went passed 12' on the 25th and didn't really come back down past that until the 29th. Also it depends on where most of the water is coming from. Gold Bar is far enough upriver that it leaves many other tributaries unaccounted for, so what I see on the GB gauge is just one indicator of the flow.

At around 12' the water starts reaching bank surfaces that don't normally see much flow, frequently this is softer and less compact ground deposited from prior floods, with brush and small trees growing in it. This is what much of the valley is made up of, loose sandy soil with shallow rooted vegetation, it's no match for several days of pounding from high water and heavy rain.

While many people look at CFS, I always look at feet, I know what a foot is on any river, and it's always a foot. With CFS, 10,000 doesn't mean the same thing from river to river, or as flows increase or decrease even on the same river.

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