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#923848 - 02/27/15 11:09 PM Another DRY week
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
WOW... can't get over how little precip we're getting this winter...

http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi

If this keeps up, it's gonna be one hot dry summer for the rivers !
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#923852 - 02/28/15 09:39 AM Re: Another DRY week [Re: eyeFISH]
thaxor Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 08/07/06
Posts: 425
Loc: Olympia, WA
Driest and most mild winter I can remember in a long while. Sump pump is usually running solid 24 hours a day from Oct through April. Only been on for a week or two at a time this winter.

Less ducks on the lake than normal as well...

Frogs going full boar in February.

Definitely a weird year.

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#923854 - 02/28/15 10:29 AM Re: Another DRY week [Re: eyeFISH]
Eric Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 3513
Quote:
If this keeps up, it's gonna be one hot dry summer for the rivers !



For sure.

A few rivers I target this time of year are very low. Too low really. Coming back from town this morning, I glanced at the Olympics to the north and what is normally pretty white only shows patches here and there. I worry about the OP rivers mid/late summer. If we have an indian summer and the rains are late, Fall will be brutal for fish passage.

Then there's the Columbia. Bouy 10 temps often hover in the 68-71 degree range on a normal snow year. Whaddaya think it's going to be this year as those E. Washington reservoirs cook without any significant snowmelt?

I preface all this doom and gloom on the assumption our snowpack never arrives and March/April are much of the same as we've had this winter.

Going to be interesting and not in a good way.

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#923857 - 02/28/15 11:15 AM Re: Another DRY week [Re: eyeFISH]
lovetofish365 Offline
Hahahaha haha ha

Registered: 04/07/07
Posts: 1884
Loc: Silverdale WA
I am franticly trying to get the garden going cause of the nice weather...clean up the yard..do a bunch of yard stuff...this is the year of landscaping after building the house and shop..instead we bought a bigger boat and it comes in April...so we are trying to get as much stuff done now so we can fish a bunch this summer...hope it works out
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see ya on the river smile

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#923868 - 02/28/15 04:06 PM Re: Another DRY week [Re: lovetofish365]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4393
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope

As the weather scramble is on I browsed around and found that most say we are in for a hot and dry summer and many predict a really prolonged Indian Summer. Then you start seeing the input from scientist who track the historical influence of the sun and solar cycles. Way past my pay grade but a lot is emerging about the sun spot cycle. A snippet of one below and here is a link. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/16...rmest-Year-Ever

Climate forecasters say that 2015 could be the warmest year ever, Raw Story Reports. The study, presented at the National Academy of Sciences Monday, built on other work to show that we have a 76% chance of an El Nino event happening sometime later this year. The potential consequence, combined with the phenomena of man-made global warming, could be the warmest year on record since we started keeping track back in the 1800's.

Although they occur in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, the effects of El Niño events can reverberate around the globe, wreaking havoc with typical weather patterns. El Niños increase the likelihood for California to be pummeled by Pacific storm systems, for example, while leaving eastern Australia at greater risk of drought. Because they are characterized by higher than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, and they add heat to the atmosphere, El Niño events also tend to boost global average temperatures.

By acting in concert with manmade greenhouse gases, which are also warming the planet, calendar years featuring a strong El Niño event, such as 1998, can more easily set all-time high temperature records.
So instead of the extreme drought that is affecting California right now, we could see them getting extreme rain next year. In the light of these forecasts, it is irresponsible of our politicians to cut back on funding for long-range weather research. Our research needs to be expanded and improved so that we can better understand the weather patterns of this planet.

Larry Bell, writing in Forbes, claims that we are on a path to global cooling. He quotes a Russian scientist as follows:


But if you thought global warming was scary, here’s an alternative to consider. Some really smart scientists predict that Planet Earth is now entering a very deep and prolonged cooling period attributable to 100-year record low numbers of sunspots. Periods of reduced sunspot activity correlate with increased cloud-forming influences of cosmic rays. More clouds tend to make conditions cooler, while fewer often cause warming.
Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov who heads Russia’s prestigious Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg predicts that: “after the maximum of solar Cycle-24, from approximately 2014, we can expect the start of the next bicentennial cycle of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055 plus or minus 11 years” (the 19th to occur in the past 7,500 years).

Dr. Abdussamatov points out that Earth has experienced such occurrences five times over the last 1,000 years, and that: “A global freeze will come about regardless of whether or not industrialized countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions. The common view of Man’s industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect.”

While solar output typically goes through 11-year cycles with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak, we are currently approaching the peak of “Cycle-24” with numbers running at less than half of those observed during other 20th century peaks.


Also the solar geeks such as this guy http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2305/astromets-climate-forecast-winter-2014 are a interesting read. Thing about it is I would write him off as nut case but then you find mainstream scientist starting to come his way little at a time. One thing about it will be interesting. As I am a old goat I will likely miss most of what is coming (dead/out of here) but you young guys are going to have a interesting time I think.
_________________________
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in

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#923869 - 02/28/15 05:22 PM Re: Another DRY week [Re: eyeFISH]
STRIKE ZONE Offline
GOOD LUCK

Registered: 08/09/00
Posts: 12107
Loc: Hobart,Wa U.S.A
Yeah we need some rain & snow bad. Ain't gonna be good this summer/fall. Good luck,


SZ

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#923872 - 02/28/15 06:04 PM Re: Another DRY week [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Well at least it'll be another epic clam opener.

Man I hope WDFW is tracking participation and harvest closely this year.

LOTSA openers with excellent conditions has meant greater participation and virtually universal for avid clammers all winter.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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