#965882 - 10/11/16 10:23 AM
Hatchery escapements
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Three Time Spawner
Registered: 06/03/06
Posts: 1533
Loc: Tacoma
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Has anybody else been looking at the hatchery reports? Some real interesting things in there. Like the fact that Minter creek has got back almost 8000 coho this year compared with just over 1800 last year. Something not in there is the fact that the Nisqually hatchery has gotten around 26000 kings compared to the 6000 expected.
There has got to be a better way to calculate numbers. I think it is interesting that the lack of fish was completely attributed to ocean conditions, but when some runs starting getting back huge numbers, there was no apparent expectation for other runs to do good.
The more I read the sicker I get about the opportunity we lost.
.
Edited by Krijack (10/11/16 10:26 AM)
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#965942 - 10/11/16 07:44 PM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: Krijack]
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Piper
Unregistered
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coho fishing was off the hook in area 9 during the king season. we caught more and bigger fish than the previous 10 years, and we had to quit fishing before it historically gets good for coho...
the last few years have been extremely productive for resident fish... too bad WDFW thinks they all go to the ocean
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#965960 - 10/12/16 07:17 AM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: Krijack]
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River Nutrients
Registered: 04/25/00
Posts: 5077
Loc: East of Aberdeen, West of Mont...
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This is examples of "where in-season adjustments", need to be done. Region 5, seems to have "plans in place" to open/close seasons if numbers are higher or lower.
Region 6, get a pat on the back for allowing the change from not allowing "wild jacks" to be kept....to a in-season change to allow. There were many days, it seemed, that wild jacks outnumbered hatchery jacks, 10 to 1. This was a year of lots of "big jacks", many Coho jacks were in the 18" to just under the legal limit of 20", same was true on the Chinook jacks.
Good move Region 6.......Thanks....
_________________________
"Worse day sport fishing, still better than the best day working"
"I thought growing older, would take longer"
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#965976 - 10/12/16 10:14 AM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: Krijack]
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King of the Beach
Registered: 12/11/02
Posts: 5206
Loc: Carkeek Park
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Agree with Piper.
Some of the best MA 9 July coho fishing in years. Nice big .... hatchery fish.
Since spring we got preached the gospel of coho conservation and now you can bonk two a day on parts of the Skagit and Snohomish systems, wtf!
We got a whole five weeks in MA 9 to fish this summer with three weeks to retain kings.
If I forecast my sales numbers like WDFW forecast fish returns this year, I'd be looking for a new job.
A major overreaction on their part based on last year's returns. The salt guys got screwed this year and look for a attempted repeat next year.
SF
_________________________
Go Dawgs!
Founding Member - 2023 Pink Plague Opposition Party
#coholivesmatter
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#965977 - 10/12/16 10:20 AM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: MPM]
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Three Time Spawner
Registered: 12/29/99
Posts: 1611
Loc: Vancouver, Washington
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To be fair to WDFW, they have made in-season adjustments. It just didn't help the saltwater angler much at all. Very good observation. Nobody can do in-season adjustments while the fish are in the ocean since you can't tell where those fish will eventually be spawning. Only when the fish begin their freshwater migration can WDFW, or anyone else, determine the ultimate run-size. That means only a select group of anglers (those in freshwater) would benefit from the new forecast, if it comes in high. However, the opposite is also true. If the run-size ends up being smaller than predicted, the freshwater angler will get shut down, but the saltwater angler will have already gotten his/her fish. So that door swings both ways.....
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#966017 - 10/12/16 09:51 PM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: cohoangler]
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Ornamental Rice Bowl
Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12767
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Very good observation. Nobody can do in-season adjustments while the fish are in the ocean since you can't tell where those fish will eventually be spawning. Only when the fish begin their freshwater migration can WDFW, or anyone else, determine the ultimate run-size. That means only a select group of anglers (those in freshwater) would benefit from the new forecast, if it comes in high.
However, the opposite is also true. If the run-size ends up being smaller than predicted, the freshwater angler will get shut down, but the saltwater angler will have already gotten his/her fish.
So that door swings both ways.....
Give that man a GOLD star!
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey) "If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)  The Keen Eye MDLong Live the Kings!
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#966018 - 10/12/16 10:13 PM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: eyeFISH]
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King of the Beach
Registered: 12/11/02
Posts: 5206
Loc: Carkeek Park
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Very good observation. Nobody can do in-season adjustments while the fish are in the ocean since you can't tell where those fish will eventually be spawning. Only when the fish begin their freshwater migration can WDFW, or anyone else, determine the ultimate run-size. That means only a select group of anglers (those in freshwater) would benefit from the new forecast, if it comes in high.
However, the opposite is also true. If the run-size ends up being smaller than predicted, the freshwater angler will get shut down, but the saltwater angler will have already gotten his/her fish.
So that door swings both ways.....
Give that man a GOLD star! Unless you actually fish the fishery. Anyone who fished Puget Sound in July can tell you the forecast was looking way off. Tons of nice size hatchery coho that had to be released....aren't they all supposed to die? SF
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Go Dawgs!
Founding Member - 2023 Pink Plague Opposition Party
#coholivesmatter
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#966020 - 10/12/16 10:24 PM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: stonefish]
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Ornamental Rice Bowl
Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12767
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Tons of nice size hatchery coho that had to be released....aren't they all supposed to die?
SF
In a perfect world.... YES!
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey) "If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman) The Keen Eye MDLong Live the Kings!
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#966023 - 10/13/16 07:10 AM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: stonefish]
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Repeat Spawner
Registered: 12/06/07
Posts: 1385
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Very good observation. Nobody can do in-season adjustments while the fish are in the ocean since you can't tell where those fish will eventually be spawning. Only when the fish begin their freshwater migration can WDFW, or anyone else, determine the ultimate run-size. That means only a select group of anglers (those in freshwater) would benefit from the new forecast, if it comes in high.
However, the opposite is also true. If the run-size ends up being smaller than predicted, the freshwater angler will get shut down, but the saltwater angler will have already gotten his/her fish.
So that door swings both ways.....
Give that man a GOLD star! Unless you actually fish the fishery. Anyone who fished Puget Sound in July can tell you the forecast was looking way off. Tons of nice size hatchery coho that had to be released....aren't they all supposed to die? SF This surprises me? You would think the WDFW sport sample guys on the water would have been catching those tons of nice size hatchery coho. Then reporting the results that an in season change is warrented. This happened this last Blackmouth season in area 10, when the samplers were catching to many undersized kings. Area 10 did not open until those numbers went down. That's an in season adjustment!
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"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” – Ferris Bueller.
Don't let the old man in!
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#966034 - 10/13/16 09:20 AM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: RUNnGUN]
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King of the Beach
Registered: 12/11/02
Posts: 5206
Loc: Carkeek Park
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Very good observation. Nobody can do in-season adjustments while the fish are in the ocean since you can't tell where those fish will eventually be spawning. Only when the fish begin their freshwater migration can WDFW, or anyone else, determine the ultimate run-size. That means only a select group of anglers (those in freshwater) would benefit from the new forecast, if it comes in high.
However, the opposite is also true. If the run-size ends up being smaller than predicted, the freshwater angler will get shut down, but the saltwater angler will have already gotten his/her fish.
So that door swings both ways.....
Give that man a GOLD star! Unless you actually fish the fishery. Anyone who fished Puget Sound in July can tell you the forecast was looking way off. Tons of nice size hatchery coho that had to be released....aren't they all supposed to die? SF This surprises me? You would think the WDFW sport sample guys on the water would have been catching those tons of nice size hatchery coho. Then reporting the results that an in season change is warrented. This happened this last Blackmouth season in area 10, when the samplers were catching to many undersized kings. Area 10 did not open until those numbers went down. That's an in season adjustment! Are you sure samplers were fishing beginning July 1st? I'm just telling you what I saw. Myself and others caught a bunch of nice hatchery coho we had to release, with some up to 6 lbs before mid July. That doesn't happen every year. I wasn't fishing out of a boat either. It sounds like Piper and others I know had similar success. It wasn't just July either. Both MA 9 & 10 fished well for coho until the August closures. I've also been seeing lots of silvers moving through the sound since then while cutthroat fishing. There are also currently a ton of very nice size resident hatchery coho around. Based on the numbers I've been encountering and their size, next July looks really promising as well. The same was true last fall through spring. We were catching nice resident coho, some in places we've never caught them before. Will we get screwed again next year? I've fished the sound since the mid 60's and fish it over 100 days annually. I'm not blind and I know what I saw and experienced this summer. I could tell the forecasts were off some. Perhaps WDFW samplers were the blind ones if they are fishing. SF
Edited by stonefish (10/13/16 09:32 AM)
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Go Dawgs!
Founding Member - 2023 Pink Plague Opposition Party
#coholivesmatter
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#966047 - 10/13/16 11:22 AM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: Krijack]
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Lord of the Chums
Registered: 03/29/14
Posts: 6829
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Voights creek has now passed what they had back for the entire season last year...
and i got an email from the Bio out here that said that they will be making an emergency opening for the Puyallup river, starting when it opens for Chum on Sunday....
will have to wait for the river to calm down, should be plenty of fish around tho...
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#966050 - 10/13/16 12:01 PM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: Krijack]
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Ornamental Rice Bowl
Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12767
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It will be a VERY strong escapement weekend!
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey) "If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman) The Keen Eye MDLong Live the Kings!
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#966053 - 10/13/16 12:09 PM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: Krijack]
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Piper
Unregistered
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My biggest issue this year is that they closed it based on one factor, poor ocean conditions... well guess what, not all Puget Sound salmon go to the ocean, and from what i've witnessed the last couple of years, Puget Sound is home to a huge biomass of bait fish and the resident populations are flourishing in it...
food for thought... even if this was a poor return year and fishing was still open, the fishing pressure takes care of itself in the fact that most weekend warriors wouldn't be catching much if anything at all and would likely quit fishing all together after a couple of skunk outings.
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#966111 - 10/14/16 08:42 AM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: Krijack]
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Three Time Spawner
Registered: 12/29/99
Posts: 1611
Loc: Vancouver, Washington
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Just so everyone knows….
WDFW cannot develop a creel census program on the “back of an envelope”, and implement it for the purposes of making an in-season adjustment, based on perceived angling success. Or lack thereof.
Creel census programs are designed to be statically valid. The experimental design has to be scientifically validated with specific design criteria such as time, date, location, sample size, and effort. The data collected has to be processed, compiled, and analyzed. Once this is done, management decisions, such as an in-season adjustment, can be considered. Again, this cannot be done quickly or easily. And it cannot be designed, funded, and implemented based on anecdotal reports of really great fishing. Or really bad fishing.
Creel census programs currently in place are the result of considerable thought and preparation, years of implementation, some bouts of trial and error, continual refinement (i.e., adaptive management) and specific funding mechanisms.
Those are already in place at the appropriate locations to make whatever adjustments need to be made. So even though lots of folks are catching lots of fish in some areas, WDFW is not in a position to make in-season adjustments based on this information.
That’s not to say they cannot be agile enough to make changes on-the-fly, but those circumstances are unusual and infrequent.
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#966121 - 10/14/16 01:25 PM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: cohoangler]
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King of the Beach
Registered: 12/11/02
Posts: 5206
Loc: Carkeek Park
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Just so everyone knows….
WDFW cannot develop a creel census program on the “back of an envelope”, and implement it for the purposes of making an in-season adjustment, based on perceived angling success. Or lack thereof.
Creel census programs are designed to be statically valid. The experimental design has to be scientifically validated with specific design criteria such as time, date, location, sample size, and effort. The data collected has to be processed, compiled, and analyzed. Once this is done, management decisions, such as an in-season adjustment, can be considered. Again, this cannot be done quickly or easily. And it cannot be designed, funded, and implemented based on anecdotal reports of really great fishing. Or really bad fishing.
Creel census programs currently in place are the result of considerable thought and preparation, years of implementation, some bouts of trial and error, continual refinement (i.e., adaptive management) and specific funding mechanisms.
Those are already in place at the appropriate locations to make whatever adjustments need to be made. So even though lots of folks are catching lots of fish in some areas, WDFW is not in a position to make in-season adjustments based on this information.
That’s not to say they cannot be agile enough to make changes on-the-fly, but those circumstances are unusual and infrequent.
Thanks for the info but...... Kind of hard to have a creel census program, get good data and make in season management adjustments for saltwater when all coho fishing in the sound is closed. SF
_________________________
Go Dawgs!
Founding Member - 2023 Pink Plague Opposition Party
#coholivesmatter
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#966127 - 10/14/16 03:28 PM
Re: Hatchery escapements
[Re: Krijack]
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Three Time Spawner
Registered: 12/29/99
Posts: 1611
Loc: Vancouver, Washington
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"Kind of hard to have a creel census program, get good data and make in season management adjustments for saltwater when all coho fishing in the sound is closed."
Absolutely correct. In this case, WDFW would have zero information on which make in-season adjustments, and no possible way to obtain any information. All they have is anecdotal reports of good fishing.
So under these circumstances, there is no way to open a fishery if the pre-season forecast is for a poor adult return, but the number of adults may be quite high. It reiterates the importance of a good pre-season forecast.
But that's sorta obvious......
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