New article posted at Tidal Exchange (click me)

Our resident Doctor put this one together...nice work!

Season-setting discussions for Grays Harbor salmon officially kicked off on February 22. The moment we’ve all been nervously waiting for delivered a mixed bag as the state officially released a portion of its preseason forecast (PSF) for the basin. A “portion” being the salmon stocks for which WDFW and the Quinault Indian Nation (QIN) have reached technical agreement.

Specifically, WDFW is forecasting a dismal return of 1,300 spring chinook (spawner goal = 1,400) and a healthy return of 30,100 chum (spawner goal = 21,000). The fall chinook and coho forecasts for the Chehalis and Humptulips sub-basins were left blank on the PowerPoint slide as the state and QIN have yet to come to technical agreement on the numbers. Grays Harbor lead biologist Mike Sharpf hinted that QIN agrees that the chinook number is low and PSF disparity is relatively small. However, the gap in the coho PSF is cavernous. QIN believes only 29K wild coho will return versus WDFW’s forecast of 109K… a 375% disparity!

As per the Grays Harbor Salmon Management Policy (GHSMP) “penalty box” clause, no directed fishery may take place for any natural-origin salmon stocks that have failed to achieve spawner objectives in 3 or more of the previous 5 years. We are squarely in the penalty box for wild Chehalis chinook and wild Humptulips coho for 2017, which means only a 5% incidental impact cap for each of these wild stocks will be allowed while prosecuting fisheries for other harvestable stocks in the basin.

Until the co-managers eventually agree upon the PSF’s for wild Chehalis coho and wild Humptulips chinook, a directed fishery on either stock remains uncertain. If these PSF’s come up short, the best we can hope for is a one fish bag on hatchery chinook or hatchery coho constrained by a 5% wild impact for their wild counterparts.

The GHSMP is the state’s conservation-minded blueprint to ensure our stocks are NOT overfished during times of reduced productivity… just like what the ocean is serving up right now. The tenets of the GHMP are biologically sound from a conservation perspective, and since the policy’s original implementation WDFW has amply demonstrated its commitment to keeping itself accountable to the document.

However, the GHSMP only applies to state-managed fisheries, and there’s been no buy-in to the plan as far as QIN is concerned. Whereas the constraints imposed by the GHSMP to conserve a depleted stock may render state fishers unable to fully access otherwise harvestable surpluses of other more plentiful stocks, the QIN does not hold itself accountable to the same constraints. Nor are they legally bound to do so.

Unfortunately, the two co-managers continue to have different ideas about how to forecast run-sizes, and widely disparate fishery objectives, particularly with regard to measuring spawner objectives. QIN measures chinook and coho spawner goals in the aggregate for the entire basin while WDFW manages the goals for Humptulips separately from those for Chehalis sub-basin. This has profound conservation implications for the success of weak-stock management.

Grays Harbor fisheries function much like a symphony with TWO conductors each reading from a different sheet of music. Imagine the difficulty and frustration as some of the musicians follow the lead of one conductor, while the rest follow the other. Each night when the curtain comes up, it’s anybody’s guess how well the concert will be performed. More often than not, it’s horribly painful to listen to.

Difficult and frustrating suitably describes this dysfunctional relationship in pre-season planning, especially when it results in the chronic inability to consistently meet escapement objectives post-season. Painful.

All of it makes one wonder just how much longer folks will keep buying tickets to the show?

To View the Grays Harbor salmon policy (C3621)in further detail, check out the link below:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/commission/policies/c3621.html

Unfnbelievable...NOT! Comments coming. Thanks for the information.

Here's the dataset used to arrive at the state coho forecast...



I have a tough time believing the 2.85 million combined GH coho natural smolt production for the 2016 outmigration. 2015 was a horribly warm drought year to spend a summer in the river.

That is the rub. While the state drought panic was all over the media most missed that for the Chehalis Basin the flows where close to normal but water temps were up. We are rain driven so a drought for us is one that gets to late Nov without rain. Thing is most of our smolt info comes from red counts and Bingham Cr Science Div trap which is 100% effective the scoop on the Chehalis not so much.

Sounds like I just said Doc is full of it, correct? Nope Doc is right because Bingham Cr is driven by a shallow aquifer that if fully charged in the winter will stay stable until Nov. BUT the rest of the basin is not so you can and WILL get a high count based upon what I mentioned that may or may not be correct. The one certainty is this fact it is 100% sure it will be wrong plus or minus.

"However, the GHSMP only applies to state-managed fisheries, and there’s been no buy-in to the plan as far as QIN is concerned. Whereas the constraints imposed by the GHSMP to conserve a depleted stock may render state fishers unable to fully access otherwise harvestable surpluses of other more plentiful stocks, the QIN does not hold itself accountable to the same constraints. Nor are they legally bound to do so."

Imagine that!

Its too bad the tribes don't have their "wild Coho forecast"...

Would be nice for the general public to be able to see a "side by side" forecast projection....WDFW and Tribal.....

Only other comment....during 2016 season, as I fish jacks in a local river, my observation that there were more "wild jacks caught, than hatchery jacks", where I was fishing. Because of the way the Sport Fishing Rules were written, August 1 - September 15, was no doubt that you could retain either wild or hatchery jacks.........on September 16 the river went to hatchery only......should have been hatchery only Adults. Many wild jacks were released, until WDFW put out a notice that both hatchery and wild jacks were legal.

The right path would be to stop ALL harvest (commercial and sport) on the west coast (including tribal) and Alaska (we can't do anything about Canada yet) for 5 years then access the returns.
Many fishers in the PNW do not know the true reason why there are fish hatcheries here.

Interesting that you would mention that. I made the very same comment/statement at the meeting.
If we are truly co-managing, why are the tribal forecasts not shared with us at the projections meetings.

I asked, since we are not "allowed" into the negotiations, that WDFW should at a minimum use part of the allotted time giving us a detailed explanation of what the tribes are saying is forecasted and what they propose to fish.

After all. No matter what the slide show says by WDFW. When the real deals are done in the NOF WDFW/Tribal meetings, all bets are off if the two don't hold hands and sing Kumbaya.
The problem is, the Tribes can walk and still fish..we can't!

Perhaps it was because my elementary education was so long ago but back then co meant equal. One thing we should all know, if we he=aven't been brain dead for especially the last few years, is that anadromous fish management in WA is not "Co".

I find it interesting that the predicted marine survival rates for Central Puget Sound stocks are higher than those predicted for the coastal stocks. Considering all the talk about the rampant predation that occurs on Puget Sound smolts in the Sound and the Strait, it seems curious, to say the least.

Also interesting how a very small estimating error for that datum, in either direction, could be the difference between overfishing a weak run and underfishing a relatively healthy one.

I think predicting the weather is more reliable than these salmon forecasts, and that's a perilous way to manage a dwindling resource.

I keep beating the very dead horse that Oregon had a great analysis of OPI coho. It used four temporally and spatially separate but consecutive variables to account for marine survival.

The problem was that any one could overshadow the other 3. So, 3 "goods" with #4 being bad and the return is down. Or, the last one is really good and takes a disaster and makes it a good run.

That is the primary problem of our need to have ocean mixed stock harvests. We fish on a black hole and hope we're close. Faith Based Management at its finest.

Another Carcassman Classic!

BTW here's a helpful link for those interested in GH season-setting that's otherwise nearly impossible to find from scratch...

http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/commercial/salmon/season_setting.html

IRRECONCILABLE no more! Here are the agreed-to wild run-size forecasts for Grays Harbor and their implications for season-setting

Chehalis spring kings: 1277 (goal 1400)... we may fish other stocks up to 5% impact cap on spring kings

Chehalis coho: 41305 (goal 28506)... nearly 13K surplus.... 6400 NON-treaty share to have directed fisheries on wild coho

Hump coho: 6862 (goal 6894).... NOT a fishable run plus we are in penalty box... we may fish other stocks up to 5% impact cap on wild Hump coho

Chehalis fall kings: 10351 (goal 9573).... NOT a fishable run (< 110% goal) plus we are in penalty box... we may fish other stocks up to a 5% impact cap on wild Chehalis-origin kings

Hump kings: 5841 (goal 3573)... nearly 2300 surplus.... 1134 NON-treaty share to have directed fisheries on wild kings