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#974448 - 03/07/17 12:01 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
An additional advantage of fishing the ocean and targeting immatures is that they are actively feeding, which makes them much easier to catch. Obviously, the highest food value, largest size, lowest carbon footprint would be adults taken in nets, traps, or fish wheels in a river or bay.

Which means, at some point, society has to decide if salmon are for eating or recreation.

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#974462 - 03/07/17 01:09 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Lucky Louie Offline
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Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
We get sort of an idea how salmon are managed in the EEZ by PFMC when we can see some of the results from returning salmon stocks to their terminal areas. The worrisome part is about the other 118 species PFMC manages that are out of view for the most part.

We can be rest assured though that PFMC will continue to do their job to the best of their ability to attempt to keep the hulls of the subsidized ocean fleets full of fish. Why? Because that is their job and they do it well.


Edited by Lucky Louie (03/08/17 12:19 AM)
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#974470 - 03/07/17 02:32 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
So here in Grays Harbor, the MSST is defined as one half the aggregate MSY spawner goal for the entire basin (no separation of Hump and Chehalis)

In the cited table, the MSY goal is listed as 11388 kings and the MSST is listed as half that number, or 5694 kings.

Interestingly, that does NOT reflect the co-managers' (WDFW/QIN) current aggregate chinook goal of 13146. Under that MSY spawner goal, the MSST should be 6573. I've got a call out to help reconcile the discrepancy.



Spoke to a PFMC operative today. The discrepancy is simply a reflection of Table 3-1 not being updated since 2011. New escapement goals were agreed upon by the co-managers since then.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#974476 - 03/07/17 02:57 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
FleaFlickr02 Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 10/28/09
Posts: 3314
Yup. The habitat just can't make enough to keep the hulls full AND meet escapement, so something's gotta give. So long, escapement!

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#974557 - 03/08/17 09:11 AM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Lucky Louie Offline
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Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
MSY seems like man’s way of saying that we know better than mother nature. I can see where that has gotten us and pretty sure how that story ends.


Another account of MSY explained by the Kenny Tao paper Fishing in the North Atlantic: What’s Left?
“The modern approach to avoid overfishing was to establish the amount of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) (Hagler, 1995). It can be defined as the maximum rate of population removal without jeopardizing the stock for next season (Ricklefs, 1993).” Unfortunately, MSY is a form of gambling in which fishery managers’ attempt, as a matter of speculation, to extract maximum yields from a natural resource, on the assumption that, if they get it wrong one year, they will be able to get right the next. “It is by calculating the MSY that the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that 70 percent of the world's commercial fish species are now fully exploited, overexploited, or depleted (Helvarg, 1997). MSY is not the perfect answer, but it is the most commonly accepted one. It is subject to inaccurate data from reporting agencies, natural variables such as abnormal climatic events, and the lack of long-term historical data for the particular species (Hagler, 1995). It was very difficult for legislative bodies to set fishing limits. The uncertainties involved in estimating fish population led to abuse.”
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#974572 - 03/08/17 10:15 AM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
There is another way to look at MSY similar to LL's.

MSY is not a biological model but an economic one. What is the minimum investment I need to make in order to maximize returns to me? This works if your $10 investment pays a fixed (say) 30% per year. But, say it doesn't. It pays only 25, but you still take your 30.

Alternatively, say I offer you a million dollars ( you can't touch it) but guarantee that you can have 10% annual return. Or, ten million but you are only guaranteed 1.5%.

Which do you want?

A friend modeled coho one time and showed that, if the coho carcasses actually benefitted coho production-as studies show, that fishing the run at 40% actually resulted in more fish in the catch than fishing at 60%. It's published in Restoring Nutrients in Salmonid Ecosystems..

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#974576 - 03/08/17 10:51 AM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Carcassman]
Lucky Louie Offline
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Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
Originally Posted By: Carcassman
A friend modeled coho one time and showed that, if the coho carcasses actually benefitted coho production-as studies show, that fishing the run at 40% actually resulted in more fish in the catch than fishing at 60%. It's published in Restoring Nutrients in Salmonid Ecosystems..

Then you have Chair Blake introducing legislation if not last year then the year before asking for a yearly accountability to the legislature on every “wasted fish” that makes it back above escapement.

Between manmade models, manmade concepts(MSY), manmade laws, and manmade strategy in lowering the bar when runs can’t make escapement etc. leaves little wonder why the salmon runs continue to dwindle.
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#974625 - 03/08/17 04:06 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
That definition of "wastage" is actually enshrined in the Boldt Decision and subsequent Court Orders. Any fish above the escapement goal is "wasted" and therefore available to be caught. That is why the State asked for Foregone Opportunity; can't waste those damn fish by letting them spawn.

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#974632 - 03/08/17 05:38 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
PFMC is gonna have to take a LONG hard look at what to do off California...

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/6745494-181/worst-salmon-season-in-eight?artslide=0
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#974666 - 03/09/17 01:46 AM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Lucky Louie Offline
Carcass

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
California isn’t the only state having problems.

Here is a NOAA study from 2013 regarding The Economic Contribution of Marine Angler Expenditures in the United States in 2011.

https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/Assets/econ...ates%202011.pdf

Of the 21 marine states in the lower 48, when it come to non-resident angler participation Oregon comes in dead last at 21st place, Washington once the salmon capital of the world fishing destination comes in second to last in 20th place and California comes in at 13 out of 21st place.

The common denominator of these three states is that PFMC manages salmon and 118 other species in the federal waters off these three states. This isn’t an indictment, but is PFMC the smoking gun—who knows?

But what I do know is what draws me to Florida, which is the state topping the list of non-resident marine anglers by head over shoulders of the other coastal states, isn’t the weather (too humid for my liking) but because of the variety, size, and quantity of fish available.
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#974730 - 03/10/17 03:26 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Lucky Louie Offline
Carcass

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
continuing on...

While trying to compare the differences between the success of Florida and Washington’s failure with out of state fishing tourism in one word, I could not believe the word came up as “hostile.” The hostile environment in Washington due to rules and regulations etc. has a direct impact regarding the availability, reliability, and quantity of fish while vying for the potential non-resident anglers dollars.

Hostile is unreliable marine and river seasons around Puget Sound and the state;

1) Hostile not only to both in and out of state sport anglers but the whole recreational industry itself affecting jobs /employment while manufacturing and selling boats and sporting goods etc.

2) Hostile to the many smaller moms and pop tackle shops and larger sporting good stores too that have gone out of business one-by-one.

3) Hostile to fishing guides and to their out of state or state clients that book reservations and put in for vacation well in advance just to find out the fishery is closed.

Hostile is allocation issues using Puget Sound halibut as an example where the Alaskan ground fishing fleet, managed by the North Pacific Fishery Management Council and with the blessing of the International Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC), catches and dumps many times more dead halibut overboard as by-catch than the whole Puget Sound allocation--- where the PS season is measured in days.

Hostile is the state legislature cutting funding to WDFW by 10’s of millions of dollars over the past 8 years, and now wants to dump this biennium shortfall of $25 million on the sport angling citizens and their families with a major proposed increase in license fees. The 1987 legislative finding and intent found under notes of RCW 77.04.020 states adequate funding for proper management, now and for future generations, is the responsibility of everyone.

Then look what pops up along the Pacific coast recently putting another nail in the coffin with regulations reducing season length and harvest regarding rock fish and the like.

Apparently, subsidized commercial ocean fisheries must be protected by all cost, while at the expense of potential economic benefits to the state and local government through tourism and out of state fishing fees.

And the list could go on and on…

It sure would be nice if my home state would give us the ability to be able to live and fish in a much less “hostile” environment.
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#974731 - 03/10/17 03:47 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
While LL is probably onto something with the hostile attitude towards anglers, perhaps the fish species we have and rely on are hostile to mega-fishing.

Anadromous fish require intact freshwater ecosystems. How many of these have we compromised, lowering the productivity/capacity? We could make more extensive use of hatcheries but that would require the same clean water, land, and food.

Rockfish are very long lived and probably way less supportive of large annual extractions. We could fish them sustainably at low rates; would that bring tourists?

Are the primary target fishes in the Atlantic and Gulf high productivity, short-lived? Plus, they have had quite a few issues with overfishing and pollution too. Just look at east coast Stripers. And, they haven't done well with Atlantic Salmon.

We here in the PNW may not have the species and stocks that can support huge fisheries. Not saying we can't make shifts in who catches them but the ocean just might be limitless.

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#974739 - 03/10/17 11:48 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Carcassman]
Lucky Louie Offline
Carcass

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
My comment about putting another nail in the coffin with regulations reducing season length and harvest regarding rock fish and the like on the coast, the interpretation is when thrown on the stack of the other fisheries with restrictions, the aggregate contributes to the decline of the recreational industry. Where disappearance of the mom and pop tackle shops and possibly the poor results of nonresident participation just mirrors the health of our state fisheries in disrepair.

To answer your question there is already a good size bottom fishing niche fishery in the ocean by the Westport charter boats to compliment their salmon fishing income. Good thing for them since Westport looks like a ghost town in the summer compared to when I use to fish there as a teen. There is no reason to believe that there will not be more restrictions coming in the future to affect their bottom line because that is just how it works--- step by step taking dollar by dollar methodically away.

The last time I read about the world fish biomass I believe 66% of the biomass disappeared in the last 100 years with most of it (54%) disappearing in the past 40 year alone.

The common thread between the precipitous drop in the world fish biomass and anadromous salmon stocks is we ate them and we will continue to feed the world with salmon until it isn’t practical.

Of course, what practical means could be debatable considering over 20 years ago a 1995 report published by Carl Safina was noted, that the annual costs for the fishing industry worldwide to catch $70 billion worth of fish were $124 billion.

The red ink filled in by government subsidies.
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#974799 - 03/12/17 05:40 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: eyeFISH]
Lucky Louie Offline
Carcass

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
PFMC is gonna have to take a LONG hard look at what to do off California...

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/6745494-181/worst-salmon-season-in-eight?artslide=0

Tough times for CA and Oregon really got hit.

NMFS Announces Inseason action in the 2017 Commercial Ocean Salmon Fishery

Effective March 15, 2017, the commercial salmon fishery from Cape Falcon, OR to Humbug Mountain, OR is closed March 15, 2017 through April 14, 2017. The Council will review this fishery at the April 2017 Council meeting regarding opening or remaining closed in April.
Effective March 15, 2017, the commercial salmon fishery from Humbug Mountain, OR to the Oregon/California border (Oregon KMZ) is closed March 15, 2017 through April 30, 2017.
Effective April 16, 2017, the commercial salmon fishery from Horse Mountain, California to Point Arena, California (Fort Bragg) is closed April 16, 2017 through April 30, 2017.




Edited by Lucky Louie (03/12/17 05:47 PM)
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#981523 - 11/12/17 06:33 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Back to the WA home front....

Originally Posted By: eyeFISH



3.1 STATUS DETERMINATION CRITERIA

Any fishery management plan . . . shall . . . specify objective and measurable criteria for identifying when the fishery . . . is overfished . . . and, . . . contain conservation and management measures to prevent overfishing or end overfishing and rebuild the fishery
Magnuson-Stevens Act, '§303(a)(10)

Overfishing (to overfish) occurs whenever a stock or stock complex is subjected to a level of fishing mortality or annual total catch that jeopardizes the capacity of a stock or stock complex to produce MSY on a continuing basis
NS1Gs (600.310 (e)(2)(i)(B))

Overfished. A stock or stock complex is considered ‘‘overfished’’ when its biomass has declined below a level that jeopardizes the capacity of the stock or stock complex to produce MSY on a continuing basis.” NS1Gs (600.310 (e)(2)(i)(E))

Approaching an overfished condition. A stock or stock complex is approaching an overfished condition when it is projected that there is more than a 50 percent chance that the biomass of the stock or stock complex will decline below the MSST within two years.
NS1Gs (600.310(e)(2)(i)(G)



Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
A stock will be considered overfished if the 3-year geometric mean of annual spawning escapements falls below the MSST, where MSST is generally defined as 0.5*SMSY or 0.75*SMSY, although there are some exceptions (Table 3-1). Overfished determinations will be made annually using the three most recently available postseason estimates of spawning escapement.



PFMC should be looking VERY carefully at Willapa Bay right now, as that chinook stock is CLEARLY in that "APPROACHING AN OVERFISHED CONDITION" status as I type.

Last year's natural origin escapement of 1581 is BELOW the MSST of 1697. There is significant risk that the 2017 run is even smaller. If the 2017 escapement does not at least exceed 1513 chinook, the 3-yr geometric mean for 2015-2017 WILL fall short of the MSST threshold.

In other words, the stock has declined to a point that we are within 68 fish of triggering an OVERFISHED status.

SAD... friggin' sad.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#981524 - 11/12/17 06:46 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
The really sad thing is that you know what the escapement was, what you need, and what you need to avoid one of "overfished" designations. It should come as no surprise. Knowing that the Feds will look at trends it would seem that one low year would trigger conservatism the next.

And in WB you can't blame the Co-managers for a high forecast, fixed schedule, unwillingness to adapt, etc.

WB shows us how the rest of the State would be managed in the absence of Boldt.

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#981525 - 11/12/17 07:07 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Carcassman]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Originally Posted By: Carcassman


WB shows us how the rest of the State would be managed in the absence of Boldt.


AMEN! The ONE place where the state could possibly get it right.

There's a handful of us trying to hold their feet to the fire. Stay tuned.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#981530 - 11/12/17 07:40 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Gonna have to burn more than their feet to get any response.

I know a lot of folks working hard to help WB.

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#981540 - 11/13/17 07:09 AM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Smalma Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/25/01
Posts: 2844
Loc: Marysville
eyeFISH-

During the late August September trips we found a higher than expected portion of unclipped fish in the catch. Of course that is a small sample size and does really tell us whether there more unclipped or less clipped fish than expected. The WB creel checks showed the same thing; out of 635 fish 153 or 24% were unclipped. This is roughly twice percentage expected from the forecasts.

That said I did notice that the latest hatchery escapement report (11/9) showed that the 3 WB hatcheries had handled and released a good number of "wild" fish. The total for the 3 hatcheries was 1,586 adults. Don't know what portion of the potential escapement those wild fish represent. However the numbers at a similar time had 864 "wild" fish released in 2016 and 1,013 in 2015. Could it be that there might be more than 2,000 NOR spawners?.

Curt


Edited by Smalma (11/13/17 07:13 AM)

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#981548 - 11/13/17 08:25 AM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Good to hear that last part, Smalma. That will keep WB chinook off the "overfished" status for the 3-yr geometric mean, but it's still likely to make the overfishing category for the year as the aggregate NOR goal for the entire basin is 4350 (WDFW) and 3393 (PFMC).
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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