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#974232 - 03/05/17 11:31 AM Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon
Lucky Louie Offline
Carcass

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
The Pacific Fishery Management Council kicks off their first of five meetings spread throughout the year starting with the council and its advisory bodies meeting March 7-13, 2017 in Vancouver, Washington. Their salmon technical team is responsible for the stock forecast with the preseason report link below.

http://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017_Preseason_Report_I_03MAR17_final.pdf

Off their website:
“The Pacific Fishery Management Council is one of eight regional fishery management councils established by the Magnuson Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976 with jurisdiction over the 317,690 square mile exclusive economic zone off Washington, Oregon and California…
The Council process is a bottom-up process, emphasizing public participation and involvement in fisheries management. Public input is encouraged and appreciated. Management measures developed by the Council are recommended to the Secretary of Commerce through the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS).”

Need to research;

It appears like PFMC is in the business of extracting our state wild but especially hatchery produced salmon for ocean fleets for the sake of US Commerce. If so to what extent and detriment to the salmon returning to their natal waters. Already have read some reports concerning this. Need more info.

Since our state legislature is looking to increase license fees on the backs of our state individuals and their families to support hatchery production, how much are these ocean fleets with direct salmon take or salmon by catch contributing to hatchery production costs? Not only in the PFMC council’s jurisdiction but up north in the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) jurisdiction as well with NPFMC admitting ground fish fisheries catching 5 species of salmon but with their greatest concern being Chinook salmon.

Do all PFMC meetings share similarly traits as their #2 meeting-- the grand finale of the NOF process?

Are PFMC meetings as open to the public as they could be?

Comments? Answers? Suggestions to add to the list? thanks
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#974239 - 03/05/17 01:00 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
PFMC has its own criteria and objectives for conservation. Season setting and harvest guidelines/quotas are intended to meet WDFW's conservation objectives each year.

There are other specific criteria that determine when there has been "overfishing" or when a stock has been "overfished" over multiple years that are not part of the states annual conservation objectives.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#974242 - 03/05/17 01:08 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/domes_fish/StatusoFisheries/2005/finalSOS/Appendices_2-5_FINAL.pdf

Page 38-39 talks about "overfishing" on West Coast Salmon

on September 27, 2000, the Pacific Fishery Management Council's (PFMC) criteria for an overfishing concern are met if, in three consecutive years, the post-season estimates indicate a natural stock has fallen short of its conservation objective (MSY, maximum sustainable production (MSP2), or spawner floor as noted for some harvest rate objectives) as listed in
Table 3-1 of the Salmon FMP. It is possible that a failure to meet conservation objectives for three consecutive years could result from normal variation, as has been seen in the past for several previously referenced salmon stocks which were reviewed under the PFMC's former overfishing definition. However, the occurrence of three consecutive years of reduced stock size or spawner escapements, depending on the magnitude of the short-fall, may signal the beginning of a critical downward trend which may result in fishing that jeopardizes the capacity of the stock to produce MSY over the long term if appropriate actions are not taken.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#974243 - 03/05/17 01:20 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Last year these stocks were deemed to be subjected to "overfishing"

Columbia summer chinook
Grays Harbor fall chinook
Willapa Bay fall chinook
Hoh River coho

http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/fisheries_e...cks_updated.pdf
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#974244 - 03/05/17 01:23 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Overfishing: A stock that has a harvest rate higher than the rate that produces its MSY.

Overfished: A stock that has a population size that is too low and that jeopardizes the stock’s ability to produce its MSY.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

Top
#974246 - 03/05/17 01:46 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/domes_fish/StatusoFisheries/2005/finalSOS/Appendices_2-5_FINAL.pdf

Page 38-39 talks about "overfishing" on West Coast Salmon

on September 27, 2000, the Pacific Fishery Management Council's (PFMC) criteria for an overfishing concern are met if, in three consecutive years, the post-season estimates indicate a natural stock has fallen short of its conservation objective (MSY, maximum sustainable production (MSP2), or spawner floor as noted for some harvest rate objectives) as listed in
Table 3-1 of the Salmon FMP. It is possible that a failure to meet conservation objectives for three consecutive years could result from normal variation, as has been seen in the past for several previously referenced salmon stocks which were reviewed under the PFMC's former overfishing definition. However, the occurrence of three consecutive years of reduced stock size or spawner escapements, depending on the magnitude of the short-fall, may signal the beginning of a critical downward trend which may result in fishing that jeopardizes the capacity of the stock to produce MSY over the long term if appropriate actions are not taken.


The three year definition appears to have been superseded at the last re-write of the salmon fishery mgt plan. A more recent document (Mar 2016) states:

Stock- specific overfishing determinations will be made annually and are based on exploitation during a single biological year.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

Top
#974247 - 03/05/17 02:01 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
What's supposed to happen when there is overfishing?

The Salmon Technical Team (STT) will report postseason exploitation rates in the annual SAFE document, and when overfishing occurs, the Council shall:
1) notify the NMFS NWR administrator of the STT’s findings;
2) direct the STT to assess the mortality rates in fisheries impacting the stock of concern and report their findings;
3) immediately take action to ensure Council area fisheries are not contributing to overfishing, and;
4) notify pertinent management agencies of the stock’s status and the contribution of various fisheries to the total exploitation rate.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

Top
#974251 - 03/05/17 02:43 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
While overfishing is deemed undesirable, there really are no "teeth" in the plan until a stock has actually become overfished down to its minimum stock size threshold (MSST).

So while a stock may be red-flagged for being subjected to overfishing, the overfishing is technically allowed to continue until the stock actually becomes overfished to that critically low level.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

Top
#974256 - 03/05/17 03:08 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
A stock will be considered overfished if the 3-year geometric mean of annual spawning escapements falls below the MSST, where MSST is generally defined as 0.5*SMSY or 0.75*SMSY, although there are some exceptions (Table 3-1). Overfished determinations will be made annually using the three most recently available postseason estimates of spawning escapement.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

Top
#974258 - 03/05/17 03:37 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: eyeFISH]
Lucky Louie Offline
Carcass

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/domes_fish/StatusoFisheries/2005/finalSOS/Appendices_2-5_FINAL.pdf

Page 38-39 talks about "overfishing" on West Coast Salmon

on September 27, 2000, the Pacific Fishery Management Council's (PFMC) criteria for an overfishing concern are met if, in three consecutive years, the post-season estimates indicate a natural stock has fallen short of its conservation objective (MSY, maximum sustainable production (MSP2), or spawner floor as noted for some harvest rate objectives) as listed in
Table 3-1 of the Salmon FMP. It is possible that a failure to meet conservation objectives for three consecutive years could result from normal variation, as has been seen in the past for several previously referenced salmon stocks which were reviewed under the PFMC's former overfishing definition. However, the occurrence of three consecutive years of reduced stock size or spawner escapements, depending on the magnitude of the short-fall, may signal the beginning of a critical downward trend which may result in fishing that jeopardizes the capacity of the stock to produce MSY over the long term if appropriate actions are not taken.


The three year definition appears to have been superseded at the last re-write of the salmon fishery mgt plan. A more recent document (Mar 2016) states:

Stock- specific overfishing determinations will be made annually and are based on exploitation during a single biological year.


eyeFISH,

You are on a roll and I probably shouldn't interrupt.

Thank you for the link above, just skimming through it has answered some questions while producing others. I’ll take a more deliberate approach later this week while looking for answers to other questions.

Smalma on occasion has mentioned the ramifications of recreational salmon fishing over mixed stocks. Well, looking at the Ocean commercial fisheries off our coast and up north-- that looks like the mother of all mixed stock fisheries. As we know the pre-season predictions can be quite inaccurate but the ocean fisheries are formed and get first whack.

The ocean fisheries while fishing in mixed stock fisheries are quite wasteful considering that the fish caught can be as small as ½ their potential size compared to being caught later in the season at their terminal areas. But, PFMC and US Commerce must know best.
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





Top
#974261 - 03/05/17 03:48 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
One of the eternal questions asked about the salmon fisheries, especially the ocean fisheries, is why do you chase something all over the place when it is going to come back to you. And, at a much larger size.

Would be interesting to evaluate fisheries based on the pounds of salmon harvested per gallon of fuel used. Especially since there is a finite amount of that fuel.

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#974265 - 03/05/17 04:14 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
So here in Grays Harbor, the MSST is defined as one half the aggregate MSY spawner goal for the entire basin (no separation of Hump and Chehalis)

In the cited table, the MSY goal is listed as 11388 kings and the MSST is listed as half that number, or 5694 kings.

Interestingly, that does NOT reflect the co-managers' (WDFW/QIN) current aggregate chinook goal of 13146. Under that MSY spawner goal, the MSST should be 6573. I've got a call out to help reconcile the discrepancy.

....

So how does all of that shake out for a river like the Chehalis that has only met its chinook goal 4 times in the past 20 years?

Looking back at the last 8 years (data presented at first NOF meeting about GH) managers were overfishing GH chinook 5 of those years.

But because not one of those overfishing years has come anywhere close to reaching the MSST, PFMC will do nothing to improve the plight of Chehalis-origin kings.

....

Same story goes for Humptulips coho.... a stock that has NOT reached it's wild spawner goal but once in the past 20 years!

....

This aggregated mixed-stock harvest model really works AGAINST key natural populations. Their individual demise is simply masked from an aggregate perspective

As far as GH chinook, the Council can simply shed any responsibility because exploitation rates on GH-origin kings in PFMC fisheries is already VERY low (historically somewhere in the 3-4% range). PFMC could wash their hands clean and reasonably claim that the PFMC fisheries do not substantially contribute to the overfishing on this stock. By the PFMC's own conservation standard, there is no compelling reason to change.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

Top
#974281 - 03/05/17 06:18 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Originally Posted By: Lucky Louie


Thank you for the link above, just skimming through it has answered some questions while producing others. I’ll take a more deliberate approach later this week while looking for answers to other questions.




Here's a more up-to-date link to the latest version of the Council's salmon fishery management plan.

http://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/FMP-through-A-19_Final.pdf


3.1 STATUS DETERMINATION CRITERIA

Any fishery management plan . . . shall . . . specify objective and measurable criteria for identifying when the fishery . . . is overfished . . . and, . . . contain conservation and management measures to prevent overfishing or end overfishing and rebuild the fishery
Magnuson-Stevens Act, '§303(a)(10)

Overfishing (to overfish) occurs whenever a stock or stock complex is subjected to a level of fishing mortality or annual total catch that jeopardizes the capacity of a stock or stock complex to produce MSY on a continuing basis
NS1Gs (600.310 (e)(2)(i)(B))

Overfished. A stock or stock complex is considered ‘‘overfished’’ when its biomass has declined below a level that jeopardizes the capacity of the stock or stock complex to produce MSY on a continuing basis.” NS1Gs (600.310 (e)(2)(i)(E))

Approaching an overfished condition. A stock or stock complex is approaching an overfished condition when it is projected that there is more than a 50 percent chance that the biomass of the stock or stock complex will decline below the MSST within two years.
NS1Gs (600.310(e)(2)(i)(G)
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

Top
#974282 - 03/05/17 06:26 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Carcassman]
Dan S. Offline
It all boils down to this - I'm right, everyone else is wrong, and anyone who disputes this is clearly a dumbfuck.

Registered: 03/07/99
Posts: 17149
Loc: SE Olympia, WA
Originally Posted By: Carcassman
One of the eternal questions asked about the salmon fisheries, especially the ocean fisheries, is why do you chase something all over the place when it is going to come back to you. And, at a much larger size.

Would be interesting to evaluate fisheries based on the pounds of salmon harvested per gallon of fuel used. Especially since there is a finite amount of that fuel.



All good questions.

It's as if we plan to fail, and then pass regulations to assure it happens.

WTF?
_________________________
She was standin' alone over by the juke box, like she'd something to sell.
I said "baby, what's the goin' price?" She told me to go to hell.

Bon Scott - Shot Down in Flames

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#974376 - 03/06/17 02:39 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: eyeFISH]
Lucky Louie Offline
Carcass

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
So here in Grays Harbor, the MSST is defined as one half the aggregate MSY spawner goal for the entire basin (no separation of Hump and Chehalis)

In the cited table, the MSY goal is listed as 11388 kings and the MSST is listed as half that number, or 5694 kings.

Interestingly, that does NOT reflect the co-managers' (WDFW/QIN) current aggregate chinook goal of 13146. Under that MSY spawner goal, the MSST should be 6573. I've got a call out to help reconcile the discrepancy.

....

So how does all of that shake out for a river like the Chehalis that has only met its chinook goal 4 times in the past 20 years?

Looking back at the last 8 years (data presented at first NOF meeting about GH) managers were overfishing GH chinook 5 of those years.

But because not one of those overfishing years has come anywhere close to reaching the MSST, PFMC will do nothing to improve the plight of Chehalis-origin kings.

....

Same story goes for Humptulips coho.... a stock that has NOT reached it's wild spawner goal but once in the past 20 years!

....

This aggregated mixed-stock harvest model really works AGAINST key natural populations. Their individual demise is simply masked from an aggregate perspective

As far as GH chinook, the Council can simply shed any responsibility because exploitation rates on GH-origin kings in PFMC fisheries is already VERY low (historically somewhere in the 3-4% range). PFMC could wash their hands clean and reasonably claim that the PFMC fisheries do not substantially contribute to the overfishing on this stock. By the PFMC's own conservation standard, there is no compelling reason to change.


Nice and concise but very disturbing.

It appears like a whole tribe of witch doctors have been exposed using voodoo pseudo-science to fill up the hulls of the ocean fleets when using a known failed management policy (MSY).

This published paper explains how MSY derives from government policy that is disguised as science while explaining the history of MSY.

Here is a paper written by Finley, C. and Oreskes, N. 2013. Maximum sustained yield: a policy disguised as science. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 245–250

https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fss192

“Overfishing is most commonly explained as an example of the tragedy of the commons, where individuals are unable to control their activities, leading to the destruction of the resource they are dependent on. The historical record suggests otherwise. Between1949 and 1958, the US State Department used fisheries science, and especially the concept of maximum sustained yield (MSY) as a political tool to achieve its foreign policy objectives. While there has been much criticism of MSY and its failure to conserve fish stocks, there has been little attention paid to the political context in which MSY was adopted.”

Where did MSY come from?
“Chapman defined MSY as making “possible the maximum production of food from the sea on a sustained basis year after year” (Chapman, 1949). The basic idea was to harvest fish stocks until they showed signs of overfishing. At that point, restrictions to slow the catch could be applied. On the face of it, the policy was logical enough, but it rested on four assumptions: (i) that scientists were able to accurately estimate existing stock levels for the major economic fisheries, (ii) that scientists could accurately recognize when stocks had reached the maximum sustainable levels, (iii) that governments would act promptly to curtail fishing when those levels were reached, and (iv) that scientists could accurately identify the levels at which recovery was sufficient to permit fishing to resume. None of these assumptions was supported by a strong empirical base, and all four were subsequently shown to be incorrect (Pauly, 1994)...”


Edited by Lucky Louie (03/06/17 02:56 PM)
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#974394 - 03/06/17 04:43 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
FleaFlickr02 Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 10/28/09
Posts: 3314
Sounds more or less like the reasoning behind my stance that the three biggest threats to long-term salmon survival are harvest, harvest, and harvest.

It should be obvious to anyone that MSY is not based in science, but it's good to see some scientific literature stating the same.

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#974398 - 03/06/17 06:25 PM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
One of the problems, of many, with MSY is that when you fish (say) the salmon, herring, and whatever the herring eat at MSY you knock the spawning population down to about 20% of unexploited, on average. So, what eats herring and salmon now have a lot less to eat.

Then, we try and "recover" pinnipeds. Killer Whales, cormorants, terns, grizzlies, and all the other predators that eat salmon to historic numbers. Without the food base to support it.

It may make sense to fish the top of the food chain at MSY but the further down the food chain one goes, the less one can support at the upper levels.

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#974433 - 03/07/17 10:37 AM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Carcassman]
Lucky Louie Offline
Carcass

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2286
Originally Posted By: Carcassman
One of the eternal questions asked about the salmon fisheries, especially the ocean fisheries, is why do you chase something all over the place when it is going to come back to you. And, at a much larger size.

Would be interesting to evaluate fisheries based on the pounds of salmon harvested per gallon of fuel used. Especially since there is a finite amount of that fuel.

What a waste on many different levels with salmon being chased and caught at much smaller size while leaving a carbon footprint instead of waiting for full grown mature salmon to come back to their natal terminal areas.

Looking back, the origin of commercial ocean salmon fisheries was to get away from rule and regulations protecting dwindling salmon runs on the Columbia river in the late 1800’s. As sail made way to engine powered ships a more reliable source of transportation would take the ocean commercial fleet even further away from port. The ocean harvest of salmon was an unregulated free for all until 1948 seems to come to mind but I’ll have to double check that.

The premise and reasoning of ocean fleets to get away from regulations was just wrong---not much different today by making rules and regulations to protect ocean salmon harvest or by-catch of salmon by other fisheries not targeting salmon, while leaving escapement goals in terminal areas barren.
_________________________
The world will not be destroyed by those that are evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.- Albert Einstein

No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#974440 - 03/07/17 11:05 AM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
There was an interesting article by the head of WA State Fisheries in the teens (nine-teens) decrying the catch of immature salmon in the ocean, particularly off the mouth of the Columbia.

Besides the small size and chasing them they actually looked at "food quality" of the fish. The comparisons were with adults at local hatcheries. They were looking at "quality" from nutritional aspects and not such things as skin color. The highest quality was a springer while the lowest were the ocean caught fish.

Made for an interesting read.

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#974446 - 03/07/17 11:46 AM Re: Is PFMC a cancer or cure for our state salmon [Re: Lucky Louie]
FleaFlickr02 Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 10/28/09
Posts: 3314
That is interesting, Carcassman. No mystery that springers are the finest of the fine, but it is a surprise (initially) to hear that the quality of small, ocean fish is less. After a little thought, however, it makes plenty of sense. Salmon put on the bulk of their weight while foraging in the waters off their streams of origin. Coho do most of their growing in just a few months. By that rationale, the longer the fish are allowed to forage, the more of the fat that makes them tasty is present in their flesh. Not only bigger, but better.

I think Lucky Louie has the motivation for fishing in the ocean nailed. Sport fishers like the ocean, too, because thete are more fish and the rules out there (although they're much more strict today) are much less restrictive, which means a better chance at catching a limit. Heck, I take every chance I can get to fish the ocean, even if that's not many.

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