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#976595 - 04/27/17 12:41 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
cohoangler Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 12/29/99
Posts: 1611
Loc: Vancouver, Washington
I have not yet read the court decision.....

However, I'm not seeing a huge downside if the issue is confined to the impacts of hatchery smolts fish on wild smolts. When hatchery smolts are released, they move downstream to the ocean very quickly. The potential for interactions with wild fish is minimal. And once they're in the ocean, it's everyfish for itself. Survival of the fittest. In that case, wild fish will have the advantage every time. So I don't see a huge concern.

But what's going to happen when the hatchery adults return? If the resulting harvest includes an exploitation rate that takes large numbers of hatchery adults, the wild fish will go extinct very quickly. That should be obvious. Wild fish cannot take an exploitation rate of 90+ percent, even though hatchery fish can.

As I see it, stocking of hatchery fish is a concern, but by itself it's not huge. The real threat is the potential for high levels of terminal harvest that usually accompany hatchery stocking. Even modest levels of terminal harvest will likely take too many wild adults. Those adults need to be on the spawning grounds. So the real threat with hatchery fish is not the stocking, it's the subsequent harvest.

I agree with Salmo g. who suggests that allowing natural recolonization would be an experiment, but only to the extent that doing so under current conditions is highly uncertain. The reason Elwha River Chinook grew so large 100+ years ago was that they needed to attain a body size large enough to get over the enormous rapids in Elwha Canyon. And 100 years ago Chinook could grow to 70+lbs because ocean harvest was virtually non-existent. Chinook salmon can no longer grow to a large body size because of the time it takes to do so. They'll get caught and bonked before they reach their terminal body size. Nobody throws back a 50lb Chinook in hopes it will grow to 80+ lbs, even though it might. Every 50lb Chinook that gets caught gets bonked.

So, will there be enough large Chinook (hatchery or wild) returning to the Elwha to recolonize the spawning grounds upstream of the Elwha Canyon rapids? That is the uncertainly that hovers over this experimental restoration project.









Edited by cohoangler (04/27/17 12:43 PM)

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#976597 - 04/27/17 07:33 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
OncyT Offline
Spawner

Registered: 02/06/08
Posts: 506
There has been a fishing moratorium (sport and commercial fisheries) on the Elwha River and its tributaries since 2011. That moratorium has just been extended until June 1, 2019.

Elwha Fishing Closure

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#976609 - 04/27/17 09:28 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Thx!

applause
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#976611 - 04/27/17 09:57 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7412
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
But, especially the Chinook and coho are still taken on the outside. Those fisheries do more damage than a terminal fishery on adults would.

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#976639 - 04/28/17 11:54 AM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: OncyT]
NickD90 Offline
Shooting Instructor for hire

Registered: 10/26/10
Posts: 7260
Loc: Snohomish, WA
Originally Posted By: OncyT
There has been a fishing moratorium (sport and commercial fisheries) on the Elwha River and its tributaries since 2011. That moratorium has just been extended until June 1, 2019.

Elwha Fishing Closure



Good! As Carcassman points out, some will still get intercepted on the outside. But protecting the lucky ones that successfully run the gauntlet is the right thing to do. If it were up to me, I'd extend a VERY large no-go zone for ALL on the outside to protect staging fish and mandate no hatchery fish EVER. Shut er' down completely for at least 10 years. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity to further study and observe what is working and what is not. Don't waste it. Plant a crap ton of fish on the Cowlitz and and let the Elwha go...IMO.
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#976646 - 04/28/17 01:28 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7412
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
The marine mixed stock fisheries are what will **ck-up Chinook recovery. To get recovery, the fish need to grow to adult size and age. Probably the same with coho, to a lesser extent. They need to grow instead of being sucked up in the July-August fishery as aggressively gorging fish. As long as we lop off the older fish we won't get much for recovery even with closing the terminal areas.

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#976648 - 04/28/17 02:06 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Older, more fecund hens are a HUGE part of the productivity equation. If you can't recruit more 4-ocean hens to adulthood, it's pretty much a lost cause.



As ol' Vedder used to say.... no huevos, no pollo!
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#976649 - 04/28/17 02:09 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: Carcassman]
cohoangler Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 12/29/99
Posts: 1611
Loc: Vancouver, Washington
Originally Posted By: Carcassman
The marine mixed stock fisheries are what will **ck-up Chinook recovery. To get recovery, the fish need to grow to adult size and age. Probably the same with coho, to a lesser extent. They need to grow instead of being sucked up in the July-August fishery as aggressively gorging fish. As long as we lop off the older fish we won't get much for recovery even with closing the terminal areas.


This is spot-on correct for Chinook. Coho have an obligate three-year life cycle, so they only have about 18-20 months to reach their terminal size before they return to spawn. So ocean fishing for coho reduces overall abundance, but not size-at-maturity.

Chinook can continue to grow in the ocean until they reach a very large body size (e.g., see the above pic from FishDoc). But they can only do that if they can escape the high seas fishing. So ocean fishing for Chinook reduces the size-at-maturity and the abundance of the adults, as we've discussed at length on this BB in the past. So, yes recovery depends greatly on reducing exploitation in the open ocean. If fishing takes place in saltwater, it should occur near the river of origin of the adult salmon.

By the way, the Tribes have been telling us this for about 100 years.....


Edited by cohoangler (04/28/17 03:29 PM)

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#976658 - 04/28/17 04:28 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7412
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Coho are actually significantly more plastic than recently thought. When there is enough escapement, you get age-0 smolts. There are fry, fingerlings that rear in the estuary, and fall smolts. At least the fall smolts return either 12 months later (2 year old) and smaller than average or 24 moths later as much bigger age-3's. There are also 2 year old smolts; these can be quite large. Finally, in AK at least, there are smolts that return to freshwater in the fall once or twice, overwinter, and then go to the ocean. These would be 4 and 5 year old adults and probably fairly large.

The idiocy of marine mixed stock fisheries has been known and ignored for quite a long time. It was certainly part of the first exposure I had to salmon management in college.

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#976659 - 04/28/17 04:32 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Interesting post, CM.... plasticity and all.

But would you not agree that all adult coho share one similarity in life history in that they all return after only one winter in the salt?
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#976660 - 04/28/17 04:35 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Coho are gluttonous eating machines. Imagine if there were bonafide 2-salt coho (those spending a second winter at sea) The way they eat, a number of them would routinely hit 30-35 pounds!
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#976675 - 04/28/17 05:57 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: eyeFISH]
supcoop Offline
Lady Killer Deluxe

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 1132
Loc: Kirkland
Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
Older, more fecund hens are a HUGE part of the productivity equation. If you can't recruit more 4-ocean hens to adulthood, it's pretty much a lost cause.



As ol' Vedder used to say.... no huevos, no pollo!




Did you check your messages?

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#976696 - 04/28/17 07:47 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: eyeFISH]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7412
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
No Doc. The age-0 smolts that return in 12 months are not jacks but fully mature adults of both sexes. And, there are 2-salt coho from the traditional yearling smolts.

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#976697 - 04/28/17 07:49 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: eyeFISH]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7412
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Look at the old records for coho; state records and such. I think there were some above 30. Consider, though, which coho is most likely to be taken in a summer troll or sport fishery. It is the mos aggressive, gluttonous fish. The one more likely to be bigger as he is first in line to eat.

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#976698 - 04/28/17 07:55 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: Carcassman]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Originally Posted By: Carcassman
And, there are 2-salt coho from the traditional yearling smolts.


I'd guess for the most part that 2-salt life history is exceedingly uncommon and for practical purposes has essentially been snuffed from the gene pool... inconsequential to the overall spawning escapement.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#976699 - 04/28/17 08:37 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7412
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
They are probably inconsequential (2-salt adults from yearling smolts) but they are a pretty significant fraction of the fall smolt return. But, to get fall smolts you likely need to heavily seed the stream; way above MSY when managing only for spring yearling smolts.

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#976700 - 04/29/17 06:05 AM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: Carcassman]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4394
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
Interesting conversation. Sooooo Coho are easy to work with as to re-population even if heavily influenced by outside factors. Simple fact is if the issue is not the total destruction of habitat it is a three or four cycles and minus harvest Coho will sort out genetically in rather short order. Chinook are different but it is around four or five cycles but then the marine harvest is the primary driver. Hell the Elwa can bounce back but NOT with the monster Chinook of the past as the AK & BC harvest will weed out the 5 & 6 year olds, In fact from what I have seen in my time is the simple fact that the drastic shrinking of size is directly related to the removal of the 5 & 6 year olds from the gene pool by the marine fisheries. Chum are do about the same as Chinook but minus the ocean harvest they can be turned around fast.

So folks like it are not our problems have always revolved around harvest clear back to when TR was president.Sure habitat impacts have reduced stream productivity ( hugely in places ) which comes hand & hand with human activities but it is the failure to recognize this and reduce harvest to the level a stream can support is what drives the down spiral. Want to see salmon start to stabilize? Get rid of MSY and drastically reduce marine intercepts of ALL kinds on Chinook for at least 4 to 5 cycles. Anything else is window dressing and will not work which is why salmonids are at the place they are.


Edited by Rivrguy (04/29/17 06:08 AM)
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#976701 - 04/29/17 06:34 AM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7412
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Here's the problem about Elwha Chinook and it is, to my mind, the best example of the problems of "simple" restoration by setting only numerical goals. The Elwha Chinook were not as huge as they were (like Kenai) so anglers could catch huge fish. They were big because THAT was necessary for the long-term survival. They needed to be big to navigate the flows, to dig redds deep enough, to move the riverbed, and so on.

Sure, we can have wild Chinook in the Elwha but unless we restore the Hawgs we will get a minor population nibbling at the edges of the habitat. Same with all the other species. We need the coho to smolt as fry, estuary fry, fall smolts, spring smolts, lake smolts, and nomads in order to exploit the ecosystem. We need the repeat-spawning steelhead as well as the age 1-5 smolts.

They all existed for a reason, and that was to optimize population survival. Or, we can choose what is convenient and have fragile museum populations.

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#976702 - 04/29/17 06:50 AM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7412
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
I would also add that, originally, Chinook were big river fish. Spawned in big mainstems. That was, I believe, "why" they were big. In our relentless effort to kill as many as quickly as possible what we have created is a piscivorous chum. At 20 pounds an adult can spawn in much smaller water.

Maybe that is how we will "save" Chinook. make them 10-20 pound creek fish. Since we want to use the big rivers for things other than salmon, maybe that is the route to go.

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#976708 - 04/29/17 06:36 PM Re: Elwha Hatcheries -Feds win in 9th Circuit decision [Re: JustBecause]
Steelheadman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/15/99
Posts: 4214
Loc: Poulsbo, WA,USA
Donald Trump is going to destroy the Ninth Circuit Court. I wonder if this will have an effect on this decision.
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