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#976562 - 04/26/17 04:09 PM trump's tax cut
larryb Offline
The Rainman

Registered: 03/05/01
Posts: 2347
Loc: elma washington
what is the difference between trump's tax cut and the one bush did that put the economy into the crapper?
_________________________
don't push the river it flows by itself
Don't argue with an idiot; people watching may not be able to tell the difference.
FREE PARKER DEATH TO RATS

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#976566 - 04/26/17 07:12 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
Todd Offline
Dick Nipples

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 28170
Loc: Seattle, Washington USA
Well, this one is Bigly.

That's what.

Fish on...

Todd
_________________________


Team Flying Super Ditch Pickle


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#976568 - 04/26/17 07:19 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: Todd]
Sol Duc Offline
April Fool

Registered: 06/18/01
Posts: 16138
Nice seeing you back Todd, did you take a sabbatical ?
_________________________
He who joyfully marches in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would suffice.

- Albert Einstein.

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#976569 - 04/26/17 07:20 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
Todd Offline
Dick Nipples

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 28170
Loc: Seattle, Washington USA
Nah, no sabbatical. Just overwhelmingly busy, and not seeing too much to comment on here lol smile

Fish on...

Todd
_________________________


Team Flying Super Ditch Pickle


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#976570 - 04/26/17 07:27 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: Todd]
Sol Duc Offline
April Fool

Registered: 06/18/01
Posts: 16138
I hear ya, you haven't missed much.
_________________________
He who joyfully marches in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would suffice.

- Albert Einstein.

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#976574 - 04/26/17 09:03 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
NickD90 Offline
Shooting Instructor for hire

Registered: 10/26/10
Posts: 7260
Loc: Snohomish, WA
Originally Posted By: larryb
what is the difference between trump's tax cut and the one bush did that put the economy into the crapper?


There's a lot actually. The economy was already in the crapper when Dubya took office (dot com bust). Bush's tax cuts were designed as short term financial relief for all tax brackets (it had an original expiration date that was extended). It was a true temporary cut instead of a systemic restructuring of the tax code. It mostly benefited the rich, as 2x more households filed as millionaires from 2001 to 2006. It was the largest single contributor to the deficit @ $1.8T from 2002 - 2009. It added $1.6T to our debt. It brought the AMT out of obscurity. It kicked the can down the road and Bush, being the big govt Neo-con that he was, added crap ton to the overall debt by way of bloated government (creation of DHS etc.) and an entirely unnecessary war.

The economy at the end of Bush's term was not bad because of his tax cuts, it was bad because of the housing market crash. Once the dot com bubble burst, most everyone left the stormy market for a calmer bay (housing). The Dems sealed the deal with making sure everyone got a house. Everyone in DC was complicit and an accessory to the crime.

Conversely, Trump was handed a relatively stable, but not a growing economy. Last year's tax receipts were at an all time high, but wages are going nowhere. Trump's plan is a lot more about the tax code for both personal and business and its permanent. Its meant to greatly simplify the overall code while spurring business investment.

I'm still processing the implications, but here's the basics:

Business Tax from 35% to 15% (it would be a miracle if he gets 15%)

From seven personal tax brackets down to 3. 10%, 25% and 35%

Doubling the standard deduction, but elimination of all deductions other than Mortgage Interest and Charity

10% income bracket couples would pay no tax on their first $24k

Elimination of the AMT and Death Tax

On the surface, I love all of it. It would give a break to the top earners (of course), but it totally restructures how the second and third brackets manage their taxes. I'd go from 29% down to 25%, so that's cool. It would put a LOT of CPA's and Tax Lawyers out of business. One or two page filing. Top earners would game the system and become instant employees of their own businesses overnight (that's both good and bad thing).

I'm most excited about the the 15% business tax. Trillions of Corporate tax dollars are being held offshore (MS, Apple, Google, Amazon to name a few). Ireland doesn't like this plan at all. We are the world's largest consumer of retail goods. If he can get 15%, we'll have the largest jobs and economy growth seen since the Industrial Revolution. Every company in the world would set up shop in the USA almost overnight. Alibaba v. Amazon? Foxconn in Ohio? MS Ireland closing up shop? Yes please. We would have more choice and our dollar would go much, much further.

My guess is he'll negotiate to 20 - 22.5% and call it a win (if he can even get that). Still, even 20% would spur a BIGLY amount of growth. We shall see I guess...

PS: Paul Ryan will fvck it up.
_________________________
“If the military were fighting for our freedom, they would be storming Capitol Hill”. – FleaFlickr02

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#976581 - 04/27/17 08:24 AM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
Salmo g. Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13521
Good synopsis Nick!

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#976596 - 04/27/17 04:21 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
Dan S. Offline
It all boils down to this - I'm right, everyone else is wrong, and anyone who disputes this is clearly a dumbfuck.

Registered: 03/07/99
Posts: 17149
Loc: SE Olympia, WA
Grew the economy right into a recession.

Impressive feat.
_________________________
She was standin' alone over by the juke box, like she'd something to sell.
I said "baby, what's the goin' price?" She told me to go to hell.

Bon Scott - Shot Down in Flames

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#976598 - 04/27/17 07:53 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: Dan S.]
Sol Duc Offline
April Fool

Registered: 06/18/01
Posts: 16138
Bush was elected into a recession.
_________________________
He who joyfully marches in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would suffice.

- Albert Einstein.

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#976600 - 04/27/17 08:04 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: Dan S.]
erikj Offline
Spawner

Registered: 01/06/07
Posts: 660
Huh?

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#976606 - 04/27/17 08:50 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: erikj]
Sol Duc Offline
April Fool

Registered: 06/18/01
Posts: 16138
Thanks to greenie super-low interest rates Greenspan brought in the early 2000s and his long-standing disdain for regulation are now held up as leading causes of the mortgage crisis.

He should have raised them gradually ( admittedly), but didn't. Sounds like we are now repeating history.
_________________________
He who joyfully marches in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would suffice.

- Albert Einstein.

Top
#976610 - 04/27/17 09:45 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
Dan S. Offline
It all boils down to this - I'm right, everyone else is wrong, and anyone who disputes this is clearly a dumbfuck.

Registered: 03/07/99
Posts: 17149
Loc: SE Olympia, WA
lol

You're a big fan of regulation now?
_________________________
She was standin' alone over by the juke box, like she'd something to sell.
I said "baby, what's the goin' price?" She told me to go to hell.

Bon Scott - Shot Down in Flames

Top
#976612 - 04/27/17 11:03 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: Dan S.]
Sol Duc Offline
April Fool

Registered: 06/18/01
Posts: 16138
That was greenies words, not mine. Pay attention. wink
_________________________
He who joyfully marches in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would suffice.

- Albert Einstein.

Top
#976613 - 04/27/17 11:13 PM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: ]
Steelheadman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/15/99
Posts: 4214
Loc: Poulsbo, WA,USA
Originally Posted By: Hankster
Originally Posted By: NickD90
Originally Posted By: larryb
what is the difference between trump's tax cut and the one bush did that put the economy into the crapper?


There's a lot actually. The economy was already in the crapper when Dubya took office (dot com bust). Bush's tax cuts were designed as short term financial relief for all tax brackets (it had an original expiration date that was extended). It was a true temporary cut instead of a systemic restructuring of the tax code. It mostly benefited the rich, as 2x more households filed as millionaires from 2001 to 2006. It was the largest single contributor to the deficit @ $1.8T from 2002 - 2009. It added $1.6T to our debt. It brought the AMT out of obscurity. It kicked the can down the road and Bush, being the big govt Neo-con that he was, added crap ton to the overall debt by way of bloated government (creation of DHS etc.) and an entirely unnecessary war.

The economy at the end of Bush's term was not bad because of his tax cuts, it was bad because of the housing market crash. Once the dot com bubble burst, most everyone left the stormy market for a calmer bay (housing). The Dems sealed the deal with making sure everyone got a house. Everyone in DC was complicit and an accessory to the crime.

Conversely, Trump was handed a relatively stable, but not a growing economy. Last year's tax receipts were at an all time high, but wages are going nowhere. Trump's plan is a lot more about the tax code for both personal and business and its permanent. Its meant to greatly simplify the overall code while spurring business investment.

I'm still processing the implications, but here's the basics:

Business Tax from 35% to 15% (it would be a miracle if he gets 15%)

From seven personal tax brackets down to 3. 10%, 25% and 35%

Doubling the standard deduction, but elimination of all deductions other than Mortgage Interest and Charity

10% income bracket couples would pay no tax on their first $24k

Elimination of the AMT and Death Tax

On the surface, I love all of it. It would give a break to the top earners (of course), but it totally restructures how the second and third brackets manage their taxes. I'd go from 29% down to 25%, so that's cool. It would put a LOT of CPA's and Tax Lawyers out of business. One or two page filing. Top earners would game the system and become instant employees of their own businesses overnight (that's both good and bad thing).

I'm most excited about the the 15% business tax. Trillions of Corporate tax dollars are being held offshore (MS, Apple, Google, Amazon to name a few). Ireland doesn't like this plan at all. We are the world's largest consumer of retail goods. If he can get 15%, we'll have the largest jobs and economy growth seen since the Industrial Revolution. Every company in the world would set up shop in the USA almost overnight. Alibaba v. Amazon? Foxconn in Ohio? MS Ireland closing up shop? Yes please. We would have more choice and our dollar would go much, much further.

My guess is he'll negotiate to 20 - 22.5% and call it a win (if he can even get that). Still, even 20% would spur a BIGLY amount of growth. We shall see I guess...

PS: Paul Ryan will fvck it up.

Any deficit is proof gubmint spends too much and not that it isn't taxing enough. It was better to have that $1.8 trillion in the pockets of taxpayers than in the wasteful hands of gubmint.

The Bush tax cuts came in two stages in 2001 and 2003. Before them the dot com bursting bubble had the economy moving along at about a 1% growth rate.
After them the economy grew by 3.8% in 2004 and 3.3% in 2005.

Obamanomics has the economy struggling to reach a 2% average rate of growth. It didn't ever have a one-year growth rate of 3% or better.

It's past time to change that.


No a deficit is proof that somebody isn't paying their fair share. Frigging billionaires like Trump and Buffett spend little to nothing on federal income tax. It's like welfare for the rich. Trump wants to increase taxes on the middle tax and give rich old farts like himself a tax break. No wonder you couldn't get into the Stanford School of Economics Hank.
_________________________
I'd Rather Be Fishing for Summer Steelhead!

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#976618 - 04/28/17 07:46 AM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: Steelheadman]
NickD90 Offline
Shooting Instructor for hire

Registered: 10/26/10
Posts: 7260
Loc: Snohomish, WA
Originally Posted By: Steelheadman

No a deficit is proof that somebody isn't paying their fair share. Frigging billionaires like Trump and Buffett spend little to nothing on federal income tax. It's like welfare for the rich. Trump wants to increase taxes on the middle tax and give rich old farts like himself a tax break. No wonder you couldn't get into the Stanford School of Economics Hank.


Sort of, but not really. What is a "fair share" and who determines that?

It takes money (and a good tax lawyer) to make money. As Maddow showed, in 2005 Trump paid $38M in taxes on $150M in earned income (25%) whereas Sanders paid 14% in 2014. Buffet paid around 11% in 2010. Most rich folk actively work to reduce their effective rate as much as possible. That is not a new thing. Nobody is stopping anyone from paying as much as they want to. The IRS will gladly take overpayments. To add, Trump will likely never recoup his campaign expenditures merely from tax cuts alone. The argument that he is doing this to give himself a tax break is rather invalid when he's already spent more to become President than he can recover from just tax breaks.

Zero or reduced deficits are achieved one of two ways. Either reduce government spending to match receipts OR increase tax receipts to match current levels of spending. Trump has reduced the deficit by over $100B in his first 2 months by reducing spending. Billy Clinton did the same when he and Newt worked together to balance the budget.

It all boils down to big government v. small government and it always starts with spending (not revenues). Taxes always play catch up and are adjusted up or down based on what the greater government vision is at the time of implementation (if at all). Bush II and Obama couldn't help themselves at the trough. Clinton and Trump have exercised a bit more restraint.

Trump's plan does call for elimination of the death tax ($5M+) which does help the rich, but it also eliminates capital gains (mostly a wash). Trump's plan does remove things like child care tax credits which hurt lower income families, but it also doesn't tax the first $24K in low income (another wash). Trump's personal tax plan will ONLY work if he also gets the business rate that he's after while keeping spending in control. Something has to make up the difference in lost receipts. That something is less government spending and more business investment (quasi business Trickle Down via investment). It'll work if he doesn't get us into another stupid war (TBD).

Again, Trump's plan is about simplification and cuts across the board for all brackets - which has been badly needed regardless of where you fall on the political spectrum. It hasn't been attempted by a sitting President in years and for that I applaud him.

Lastly, you are making be defend Trump. That sucks. He's an ass, but the man has the best business chops of any President we've had in office in our lifetimes. I trust that he knows a hell of lot more about taxes than either you or I, seeing how he paid more in one year than all of us combined across our lifetimes.

PS: Turn off NPR and write a bigger check next year. Pay whatever you feel is your fair share, which I assume would be more than you are obligated. Moral superiority achieved. Problem solved.



Edited by NickD90 (04/28/17 07:55 AM)
_________________________
“If the military were fighting for our freedom, they would be storming Capitol Hill”. – FleaFlickr02

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#976621 - 04/28/17 08:53 AM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: NickD90]
erikj Offline
Spawner

Registered: 01/06/07
Posts: 660
Love me some NPR, but I think they're little worried about budget cuts.
I think you're reading a slightly different source regarding Trump's tax plan than I did. Actually, I like your analysis better than the few I read. Care to share the links?

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#976623 - 04/28/17 09:28 AM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
NickD90 Offline
Shooting Instructor for hire

Registered: 10/26/10
Posts: 7260
Loc: Snohomish, WA
My inference comes from all over the net and has some gaps filled accordingly to make some sense here as I see it. I'm no economist and just a Joe-Blow taxpayer. Someone with more knowledge could probably do a better job than I can at breaking it down (and could probably correct any of my misinterpretations along the way).

Wikipedia, Forbes, The Economist, Wall Street Journal, Zero Hedge, Times among others are my general sources. I try to divorce politics from my own internal analysis and conclusions and read everything I can whether or not I agree with the politics behind it. Presidents from both parties come and go. Some politicians are big government and some are small government. The D or R next to their name usually matters little. Bush II was a hog. Clinton was not. The exact opposite of what everyone expects when a D or and R shows up next to names.

I'm all for smaller government in our current financial climate. I'm all for running the government like an actual business. We are $20T in debt with another $80 - 100T in unfunded liabilities because we haven't been running it like a business. Cutting fat is what smart businessmen and women do in times like these. They pull into port and mend their ship's sails.

NPR's inefficient budget should be the least of our worries. They should survive in the open market just like anyone else and pay salaries based on what the market can bear (they weren't). Cutting the deficit by $100B in his first few months is Trump being smart with our money. Sorry NPR, those are the breaks when you pay on-air talent 2x what the open market dictates.
_________________________
“If the military were fighting for our freedom, they would be storming Capitol Hill”. – FleaFlickr02

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#976624 - 04/28/17 09:29 AM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
Dan S. Offline
It all boils down to this - I'm right, everyone else is wrong, and anyone who disputes this is clearly a dumbfuck.

Registered: 03/07/99
Posts: 17149
Loc: SE Olympia, WA
Government isn't business. Pretending they're the same is fuckin stupid.

But whatever.

I'm about done giving a sh!t either way, as everyone seems more interested in being political cock gobblers than doing what helps the country.

Party first. Country second.

Great.
_________________________
She was standin' alone over by the juke box, like she'd something to sell.
I said "baby, what's the goin' price?" She told me to go to hell.

Bon Scott - Shot Down in Flames

Top
#976627 - 04/28/17 10:35 AM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
NickD90 Offline
Shooting Instructor for hire

Registered: 10/26/10
Posts: 7260
Loc: Snohomish, WA
C'mon guys - you two are much too smart for that and I mean that.

To pretend it isn't a business is ludicrous. Please explain how it is not a business and show your work.

Revenues and expenditures. Money in, money out. Providing a consumable service while paying salaries to employees. It is the very definition of a business.

The only major difference between a government and a business, is that you are forced through taxation to buy services from the government (captured market) and money can be printed to cover immediate losses (devaluation of the dollar). In the open market, nobody forces anyone to buy from any certain business and money has to be made rather than printed. That's it. Other than that, they financially operate in exactly the same way. Money in and money out.

Not treating it like a business is EXACTLY how we find ourselves $20T in debt with another $80 - 100T in liabilities. As Thatcher put it, what happens when you run out of other people's money? Either as a business or a government, you go broke when that happens. See Venezuela right now and Yugoslavia before it. Ironically, Venezuela could immediately right their ship and become the largest economy in SA if they properly utilized the very one product of value they have that matters. Their natural resources and reserves. Their political system is preventing that, not the math of running a business.

I deal with stats all day long and I can make the numbers say whatever my Leadership wants them to say. Math is math. It's settled science. Either you are going broke, staying static or you are increasing your bottom line. Math has nothing to do with politics. It's the policies behind the math that people fight over, but the math itself doesn't change.

It's ok to not agree with me. You'd just be wrong is all. grin


Edited by NickD90 (04/28/17 10:59 AM)
_________________________
“If the military were fighting for our freedom, they would be storming Capitol Hill”. – FleaFlickr02

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#976628 - 04/28/17 10:58 AM Re: trump's tax cut [Re: larryb]
Bent Metal Offline
Carcass

Registered: 01/09/14
Posts: 2312
Loc: Sky River(WA) Clearwater(Id)
Nick, in business there are two main factors.....Competition and Profit... They are both interrelated.
Are the American people employees or customers? If the objective is to profit off its customers (us) then mission accomplished. The least they can do is tell me they love me before taxing the fuk out of me.
_________________________




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