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#993862 - 09/20/18 05:24 PM Willapa Basin gets the AXE!
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12421
Following the lead of the Columbia Basin and its horrible chinook returns, the ENTIRE basin closes to ALL fishing (rec and commercial) until further notice.

Yeah... it's that bad for chinook
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#993864 - 09/20/18 07:11 PM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
eswan Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 01/19/14
Posts: 126
huh? I guess no one has been on the rivers recently.. there's plenty there we just need rain to move em. That's a shame.


Edited by eswan (09/20/18 07:12 PM)

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#993866 - 09/20/18 09:09 PM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
Drunkenbubba Offline
Fry

Registered: 04/01/11
Posts: 31
Loc: Aberdeen WA
Here is the official link from WDFW

https://fortress.wa.gov/dfw/erules/efishrules/erule.jsp?id=2214


A question I have is there a possibility that Grays Harbor and its tributaries could face a similar closure, or are we in better shape here?

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#993871 - 09/21/18 06:56 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
humble hubby Offline
Egg

Registered: 11/01/16
Posts: 4
WTF? There's more than enough in the Nemah and Naselle's hatcheries and the Willapa is off to an ample start with a good amount staging for the next water movement. Is there a political bargaining game going on with the non-tribal killnet fishery?

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#993872 - 09/21/18 07:17 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 5414
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
WDFW could post the numbers needed to meet egg-take needs versus the numbers on hand now to make the decision transparent.

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#993873 - 09/21/18 08:09 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: Carcassman]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 3208
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
Here is the link as it is posted. https://wdfw.wa.gov/hatcheries/escapement/2018/092018.pdf

Without pulling the model up the last number I had was that hatchery chinook were at around 29% of forecast data in commercial with rec showing about the same. NOR's were lower. So the Naselle at 111 NOR with a 60 M to 40 F you could say the jig is up.

To be frank after 2020 returns regardless of ocean or other conditions this is the coming norm. After 2024 it will likely be worse as then the NOR's in Willapa will be lacking any substantial staying that back filled the NOR void. You will have hatchery fish ( as in the past ) but a small NOR population on its own after many generations hatchery straying.


Edited by Rivrguy (09/21/18 08:17 AM)
_________________________
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in

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#993874 - 09/21/18 08:11 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
DrifterWA Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 04/25/00
Posts: 4524
Loc: East of Aberdeen, West of Mont...
Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
Following the lead of the Columbia Basin and its horrible chinook returns, the ENTIRE basin closes to ALL fishing (rec and commercial) until further notice.

Yeah... it's that bad for chinook


Amazes me that the summer fishery off Westport, was limited, then suddenly the Chinook limit was raised from 1 to 2. Did this increase in Chinook take, cause the Columbia, Cowlitz and Willapa problems????? I don't know, but it sure couldn't have helped.
_________________________
"Worse day sport fishing, still better than the best day working"

"I thought growing older would take longer"

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#993875 - 09/21/18 08:15 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
WDFW X 1 = 0 Offline
Official Darkside Fucktard Whisperer

Registered: 01/27/15
Posts: 2465
You guys still question WDFW fisheries management????

That is laughable.

You know they will screw up and have failed for decades.

Hell.........................They're right on schedule.

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#993882 - 09/21/18 10:02 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: WDFW X 1 = 0]
Bay wolf Offline
Spawner

Registered: 10/26/12
Posts: 895
Loc: Graham, WA
Originally Posted By: WDFW X 1 = 0
You guys still question WDFW fisheries management????

That is laughable.

You know they will screw up and have failed for decades.

Hell.........................They're right on schedule.


Excellent!
_________________________
"Forgiveness is between them and God. My job is to arrange the meeting."

1Sgt U.S. Army (Ret)

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#993887 - 09/21/18 11:28 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
Ward Offline
Parr

Registered: 09/14/09
Posts: 66
Hopefully there are sufficient Coho to reopen the Willapa fishery once the Chinook spawning season is complete. It isn't a pretty picture.

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#993896 - 09/21/18 01:34 PM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
War-Paint Offline
Spawner

Registered: 08/02/12
Posts: 693
Loc: In a drift boat...
Next year will be even worse
_________________________
YOUR MOTHER IS A TULE!


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#993899 - 09/21/18 08:12 PM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
eswan Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 01/19/14
Posts: 126
Wdfw really is pathetic. good luck on the hump this weekend everyone.

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#993919 - 09/23/18 07:57 PM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
mitch184 Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 02/02/05
Posts: 328
Loc: Lake Stevens
Good God..... What a joke. Some areas down there are polluted with chinook.
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Team Haters

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#993923 - 09/24/18 03:08 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 5414
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
MSY really has nothing to do with biology. It is basically an economic evaluation; what is the minimum investment (spawners) for the maximum return (dead fish in the boat). It looks at a single stock as if that stock exists totally independent of the ecosystem. Further, it is backward-looking. If, for example, the ocean becomes less productive because pinniped predation (Larry's favorite) an MSY analysis will only show that escapement is not producing human catch. So, lower the goal.

Further, we know that the ocean has long-term cycles; longer than PDO. These are ignored too.

Using MSY we'll continually lower the goals and keep on fishing.

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#993928 - 09/24/18 09:51 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: mitch184]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 3208
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
Quote:
Good God..... What a joke. Some areas down there are polluted with chinook.


Ah ............ guy the nets and rec harvest was at about 29% of forecast on hatchery and lower on NOR's. Nor's at 15 to 20% of forecast will shut down any fishery regardless of the number of hatchery returns present.

We had rain early sucked a bunch in that held on the drop. Thats it in a nutshell, not a river full of fish. The minutes of the Willapa Advisers meeting are posted with documents on WDFW's website. If that is to much e mail Barbara at R6 and get on her mailing list. Staff has been pretty good about getting info out but cannot force folks to read it.


Edited by Rivrguy (09/24/18 09:54 AM)
_________________________
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in

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#993930 - 09/24/18 10:00 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: Carcassman]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12421
Originally Posted By: Carcassman


Using MSY we'll continually lower the goals and keep on fishing.


Give that man a GOLD star.



No matter how depressed the run, there is always an MSY e-goal that can be calculated... and that's what the bass turds will fish it down to.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#993935 - 09/24/18 11:10 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
Black Bart Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 303
Loc: Adna
Will Grays Harbor and all of it's tributaries be next?

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#993937 - 09/24/18 11:32 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
steelhead59 Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 01/09/07
Posts: 141
Loc: Olympia, WA
I have a friend that lives on the Willapa and he says the hatchery if loaded with kings. Forks creek was full of fish and lower river has fish boiling everywhere. He drove up the Nemah and Naselle and says the rivers are teaming with fish and the water too low for fish to get to the hatchery. he said they should have walked the river to really get an idea of how many fish are in there before they closed the whole somebitch down. Watch and see how many are called surplus ( MISS MANAGED ) in the end.

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#993957 - 09/24/18 07:34 PM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: steelhead59]
eswan Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 01/19/14
Posts: 126
This. if anyone has spent any time on these rivers in the past month they'd know they are loaded with fish.

Originally Posted By: steelhead59
I have a friend that lives on the Willapa and he says the hatchery if loaded with kings. Forks creek was full of fish and lower river has fish boiling everywhere. He drove up the Nemah and Naselle and says the rivers are teaming with fish and the water too low for fish to get to the hatchery. he said they should have walked the river to really get an idea of how many fish are in there before they closed the whole somebitch down. Watch and see how many are called surplus ( MISS MANAGED ) in the end.

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#993966 - 09/25/18 12:25 AM Re: Willapa Basin gets the AXE! [Re: eyeFISH]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 5414
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
One of the results of hatchery production is often the over-harvest of wild fish. They are different.

Back in the 70s, PS experienced two problems with Chinook. Hatchery surpluses in most systems and under-escapement of wilds. The WDF solution? They lowered the wild goals on the streams, like the Green, with the most egregious surpluses. They were then happy to report that they could now achieve the wild goal and avoid surpluses.

Consider now that they will try and produce more hatchery Chinook for the SRKW. If, at the same time, they try to rebuild the wild runs then we may see even more "surpluses".

Want wild fish? Get rid of hatcheries. Want hatchery fish? Blow away the wilds. Look at the comments here. There are (lots, gazillions, way too many) hatchery fish out in the river; let us kill them. And, as Rivrguy points out, there just aren't very many wilds and the release mortality, if every angler was law abiding and highly skilled, would still significantly impact the remainder.

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