Do you have a better overall odds if you select 4 area as oppose to just one? Lets say you and a friend both have 0 points and you pick an individual hunt for one and only one area. Your friend, picks the same area for his first choice and picks another area for 2nd and 3rd and 4th.

Do you have a better odds of getting your first and only choice than he does? How about overall odds. Does he have a better overall odds of getting something since he selected 4 areas?

Hope I didn't confuse anyone.
I am STIHLHEAD and I approve this message

1. Yes. 2. Your odds are the same as his for that particular hunt, but he has a higher chance of drawing a tag because he is in 4 drawings.

I only put down one hunt for deer, and two for elk. If I don't draw any special permits, I have some pretty good plan B's. If I don't draw these hunts, I don't want to waste my points.

I suggest finding a permit area that you like and just keep drawing for it. It took 4 years to draw this tag.
I have 1 point going into this next drawing, so chances are slim I'll draw, but then again, its 10:1 odds for this hunt, so I do have a chance.

They have switched the doe and cow permits a bit, so that if you draw antlerless only tag, you do not lose your points. "Any deer" or "Any elk" tags will bring your points down to ZERO.

Good Luck!

Andy, can you clarify for me that point system rule change? I'm not sure I understand you correctly. If you get drawn for an antlerless tag you don't lose your points?

I don't totally agree with Dogfish's answer. Your friend who put down 4 choices as opposed to your one choice wouldn't necessarily have better odds of drawing a tag. The 3 last choices could be tougher to draw than the 1st choice, therefore his odds of drawing any of the last 3 choices would be zero, because he would get the #1 choice, or he wouldn't get any. I realize this probably doesn't make sense, you have to understand how the drawing system works. If you go to the WDFW website, somewhere in there is an explanation as to how it is done. All you really have to remember is don't put down any hunts that you aren't willing to lose your points over.

Now that part about not losing points when drawing an antlerless tag I would like to know more about also. I never heard of that. Dogfish would you mind elaborating on that? If that is true I wish I would have known before I applied...I could have put a cow hunt down for my 3rd and 4th choices, but as it was I just left them blank.

My fault on not explaining losing points better. AHE antlerless only hunts will not lose you points for deer and elk, but for the other guys, you will lose your points for a draw on a doe or cow tag. Antlerless moose only tags will not keep you from drawing a permit for "any moose" later on either. I limit my hunt choices.

I do stand by my hunt choice info. If your partner's second through fourth hunt choices were 5:1 odds, and your first hunt choice was 20:1, then yes, he has better odds.

Andy

Andy,

I kind of get the picture but I am still somewhat confused.

Lets assume:

I have 0 points and no AHE.
My first choice for deer is 555.
I make no other choices.

My friend has 0 points and no AHE.
His first choice for deer is 555. Same as mine.
He make 2nd choice (666) and 3rd choice (777) and 4th (888).

question:
Do we both have the same exact odds on our 1st choice? for example lets say 1 in 20.

BTW Nice buck.

Thanks

My uneducated responce is that you would both have the exact same odds on choice 1 he just has a chance to draw another choice and you don't because you didn't select one. My question is the AHE hunt unit Quinalt Ridge. What is it like? As a bowhunter you can hunt the mathaney unit which is where the Quinalt unit is in , Correct?? How big is the AHE area and what makes it so great? By the way the first year of the late muley special tags there were five in the gardner unit and that was our fourth choice and we drew 2 of the five. Should of bought a lotto!!

Yup, same odds on 555.

Dogfish is exactly right.

If you both put in for the same 1st choice, you both have the same odds (asuming you have the same amount of preference points).

But, if he puts in for other additional hunts, he has a chance to draw those as well.

The odds are what they are per drawing (regardless of what else you put in for).

The order you list them in on your application determines which tag they'll give you if you happen to draw two or more of your choices.

Happy hunting......

Dogfish, what I was trying to say was that if the first choice was 5:1 odds, and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices each had 20:1 odds, then the chance of drawing a permit wouldn't be any better than if he had only applied for the #1 choice.

Stihlhead, this is from the WDFW's website:

Q: How do the hunt choices work?
A: When the drawing occurs, it is as if all of the applications for a species are placed in a barrel. The computer spins the barrel by issuing random numbers to each application. The lowest random number that is issued to each application is the number used to order the applications from the lowest random number to the highest. It is the same as drawing cards from a barrel one by one. The application with the lowest random number is drawn first from the barrel and the hunt choices are checked. As each application comes up for consideration, the first hunt choice is checked to see if there is a permit left to be awarded. If there is none left, the second hunt choice is checked. If there is a permit available for that hunt choice, the application is selected for that hunt. If not, the process continues until all of the hunt choices on the application have been checked. If all of the hunt choices marked on the card have run out of permits, no permits are awarded to that application.

To see all the FAQ's: http://wdfw.wa.gov/faq/wpsfaq.htm#10

Thanks guys. Hairy Ape I looked for it yesterday and couldn't find it. Thanks for posting it.


Another question/quiz for you guys:

What are the odds of getting 3 tails in a row. We are talking about coin here.

0.12

Right on.

Why did I ask that?

Lets say you got drawn for a tag last year and the odds were 1 in 10 or %10. Lets assume you apply for the same tag this year and the odds are again 1 in 10.

What are your odds of getting drawn for the second time in a row?

%10 -- 1 in 10 or
%1 -- 1 in 100 or
%5 -- 1 in 20 or
%20 -- 2 in 10 or
...
Something else?

The odds are still 1 in 10. Drawing or not drawing the year before makes no difference.

Statistics are a funny thing, because you are correct, your odds this year are once again one and ten. However, the odds of you drawing two years in a row, is 1/100, and the odds of drawing three years in a row is 1/1000. These odds do no relate to individual years, only the statistical probability that it would happen two or three years in a row.

Thats right. Odds of 2 years in a row are 1 in 100.

Good way to show this is with the coin example. The odds of a getting a tail is 50/50 (1 out of 2) but odds of getting it twice in a row is %25 (1 out of 4) and odds of getting tails 3 times in a row is %12.5 (1 out of 8).

That is because when you flip the coin twice you can have 4 combinations.

Head Head or
Head Tail or
Tail Head or
Tail Tail

so overall tail tail odds will be 1 in 4 (%25) which is %50 of %50.

If you do the same for 3 coin toss you see the odds of 3 tails in a row are 1 in 8 (%12.5) which is %50 of %50 of %50.

For deer example it would be %10 of %10 which is %1.