First Negative PDO in four years

The March 2018 PDO measurement is a negative 0.05. This is the first negative reading since December 2013 and indicates an improving ocean condition just in time for the smolt out migration. This could be an indicator for a larger coho return in 2019. Hope the trend keeps going.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

THX SB and now we wait as it is four years to see and five to get full effect for Chin. Hopefully it graphs up for some years. Hope is key word here. Coho they rebound much faster and will be the canary in the coal mine.

PDO, did not mean anything to me....so I did a search and found the following:

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | Teleconnections ...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo

Information on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), often described as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability.


Thanks Soft Bite

Chinook outmigrant fry numbers have been excellent for the past 2 years as well. I am really hoping those little fellas will be entering a friendly ocean!

Thanks for the good news, Soft Bite.

The late coho last Fall were chunky. Showing signs of growing with more food available.

Just for grins, the PDO is Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Which implies, at least, that the swings are about 10 years long.

Looking at graphs of the oscillation, it looks like it can span up 20+ years to ramp up and then decline. Good for the biologist that comes on board at the start of the upswing and leaves when around the peak and good for the replacement biologist who initiates recovery efforts and then leaves as things start to turn around.....and the cycle continues.

If I remember correctly, there are other oscillations in the East Pacific gyres that can take even longer to change. One has to wonder what is the best overlap for positive population responses and what brings about the worst case scenarios.

The PDO is the one that gets all the notice. It benefits either AK or WA/OR in the simple view. There is, and I forget, a longer term oscillation that was being teased out in the 80s/90s. There are probably even longer swings than that but in order to see if you have, say even a decadal oscillation you need 30-50 years of consistently collected data. Yeah, consistent data.

On a related note. . .

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/03/la-nina-is-doomed.html

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I like how Cliff Mass describes things for the lay people.

I agree. . .and he does it without dumbing it down, but rather, with data in graphic form. . .top-shelf communicator.

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