Can anyone stand a little good news?

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been positive (meaning unfavorable warm ocean conditions) nearly every month from January 2014 through December 2019. In fact 2015 and 2016 had the worst positive PDO readings ever recorded.

The first four months of 2020 have all had negative PDO readings indicating favorable ocean conditions for the smolt out migration going on right now. The 2020 terminal Chehalis coho return is forecasted to be 70,000 fish. All things being equal (they never are), the negative PDO could be forecasting a 2021 coho run in the range of 120,000 fish.

Well now that is some good news....

Thanks......maybe it will help the 2020 summer run steelhead......2019 was the worse I've seen in my 40+ years of chasing summer run steelhead, locally .

Thanks for the info SB!

That's good for us down here. But, the shift in PDO will crash Alaska. Not that they'll fish less, they'll just get less of their fish.

Ready the nets!!

Actually, Alaska has constrained the SEAK troll fishery from the PST max allowed when their own stocks were in trouble. They don't when its only nonAlaska stocks that are hurting.

Thanks for the good news! That and the herring spawn bode well for the future.

The probable large return of jacks being reported may be a confirmation of an improved run for 2021. The PDO for 2020 year to date is through July is -0.26.

Where do you find the monthly values? The UW site I used to look at is no longer updated.

I used to follow the UW site until it went dead. I do not know much about this one.


http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/data/db/climate/pdo/pdo.txt

The NT nets caught 918 coho this week compared to a model prediction of485. This is 189% of the model which could mean the run is 189 % of the predicted 62,176. That would be a run of 117,700 coho.

10/29/2021

Thanks.....I'd REALLY like to know Coho numbers, hatchery vs. wild. I understand it was my call to only fish above South Monty but what I did not expect was "guessing", a 10 to 1 ratio of wild over hatchery, some would say even a higher ratio.

I already posted elsewhere, that a never saw or heard of a boat, with 2 or more fishers, that limited the boat with hatchery fish. Got to be major model problems??

there just not clipping the number of fish they say they are..

Ah guys the harvest model is based on past commercial harvest by week or regulation ( Rec ). The numbers imputed to the harvest model are the agreed to forecast for run size numbers between the co managers.

What the harvest model does NOT reflect is wet falls which brings fish upstream early like this year or dry falls which they stack up and come in later. One very dry year I recall we did not get major movement for Coho until the 3rd week of November.

As to runsize guesses one is seldom right mid way for the reasons outlined. Combined NT and QIN are not that far off except for Chinook and again it rained early which messes with trying to get a flavor for things. NT's were up one week way down next then rain and back up again.

Always remember if fishing the Chehalis the Hatchery fish are proportionally way down because they are mixed with the upper Chehalis fish. Need to be on the Satsop to break the ratio to favorable. The Skook Mit fish are a later returning fish so Sept & Oct will have few marketed fish above Fuller Hill and backwards in H / W mix on the Chehalis as it is just 300k Coho smolt released in the upper basin.

BINGO!!!
Anyone catch n releasing said wild fish noticed that the adipose fins are very small verses a "WILD" fish with a big adipose?

Says a couple guys that have never done that work for a day in their lives...

yes a$$ swing iv'e clipped fish

Most of the hatch coho went thru BEFORE the season opener on Oct 1

Wild fish with more protracted run timing are now dominating the run

Wild run is easily TWICE as strong as the preseason forecast.

It will be a GOOD escapement year for the fish