2022 NOF

NOF & OFF TO THE RACES

February 11, 2022

Contact: Kyle Adicks, 360-902-2664
Public Affairs contact: Ben Anderson, 360-902-0045
WDFW invites public participation in annual salmon season-setting process

Washington’s North of Falcon process kicks off March 4 with statewide forecast meeting

OLYMPIA – Fishery managers with the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) have scheduled numerous opportunities for public participation in setting state-managed salmon seasons in 2022, beginning with a statewide forecast meeting on March 4.
That meeting, part of the season-setting process known as North of Falcon, is just one of more than a dozen virtual meetings scheduled in the coming months to discuss salmon fisheries across Washington. North of Falcon refers to waters north of Oregon’s Cape Falcon, which marks the southern border of management of Washington’s salmon stocks. This includes Puget Sound, Columbia River, and coastal Washington salmon stocks.

Input from anglers, commercial fishers and others interested in salmon fishing will be considered while state fishery managers partner with tribal co-managers to craft this year's fisheries.
“Interest in Pacific Northwest salmon fisheries has grown significantly in recent years, and the season-setting process is a crucial time for the public to engage as we work alongside tribal co-managers,” said WDFW Director Kelly Susewind. “This process is about cooperation and collaboration, as well as better understanding the diverse interests of sport anglers and commercial operators across the state.”

"North of Falcon is a critical venue where each treaty tribe engages in the sovereign process of negotiating fisheries with our state co-managers," said Ed Johnstone, chairman of the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission. "Fisheries management only gets more challenging because of ongoing loss of habitat, declining salmon runs and impacts of climate change. Tribes of the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission have a responsibility to make tough decisions as stewards for the resource to protect fish for our children and their children.”

From 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Friday, March 4, WDFW will present initial forecasts developed by WDFW and tribal fisheries biologists. WDFW and tribal forecasters use a suite of scientific data, including watershed sampling and monitoring, ocean indicators, and previous year returns, to estimate the number of salmon and steelhead that will return to Northwest waters, and how many fish will be available for harvest.

In addition to attending virtual meetings, other ways the public can participate in the state’s process include:
• Online comments: The public can now provide general comments on potential fisheries at WDFW’s North of Falcon public input page. Additional comment opportunities on specific seasons and fisheries will be available as forecasts and proposed season summaries are made available.
• Conference calls and daily briefings: During the final days of negotiations, state fish managers plan to hold briefings each day, which will be available via conference call.
For a full timeline of the state’s North of Falcon process, including a public meeting schedule with opportunities to participate in virtual meetings and provide public feedback, visit WDFW’s North of Falcon public meetings web page. Any additional meetings will be added as they are scheduled. To support COVID-19 safety guidelines, these meetings will be conducted online and be available to the public to watch or listen via webinar or conference call.

This process occurs in tandem with Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) public meetings to establish fishing seasons for salmon in ocean waters 3 to 200 miles off the Pacific coast. The PFMC will discuss preliminary options for ocean fisheries during its March 8-14 meeting and is expected to adopt final ocean fishing seasons and harvest levels at its April 6-13 meeting. More information on these virtual meetings is available on the PFMC’s website.

The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife works to preserve, protect, and perpetuate fish, wildlife and ecosystems while providing sustainable fish, wildlife, and recreational and commercial opportunities.

I was wondering who they were going to get to ride the horse to the meeting..

As far as public input is concerned, it is just the yearly dog and pony show. You would better off asking the tribes what they are going to let WDFW have for seasons.

Well,yeah. That covers it pretty well. Cap in hand, begging for crumbs.

self inflicted penalty box,

I asked one WDFW regional biologist how our non-treaty recreational seasons would be any different if WDFW didn't participate in NOF at all. It would save the Department hundreds of thousands of dollars, and I think we would still get whatever seasons the treaty tribes decide we can have.

Agree. Would save lots of money and expectation.

This one is for Willapa and Grays Harbor, yes they will be Zoom which frankly is not the best way in my mind.

Hi Everyone,
Welcome to the 2022 North of Falcon (NOF) salmon season setting process. We wanted to provide everyone with some public meeting dates that have now been scheduled relative to Willapa Bay.

Our website has been updated with the 2022 NOF public meetings scheduled to-date, which can be found at 2022 North of Falcon public meeting schedule | Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife. All meetings will be conducted virtually via Zoom.

The 2022 Willapa Bay NOF public meeting dates are:
Date Time Meeting
March 3 6 – 8 p.m. Joint Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor Forecast Meeting
March 24 6 – 8 p.m. Willapa Bay Fisheries Discussion
April 5 6 – 8 p.m. Willapa Bay Fisheries Discussion
April 19 6 – 8 p.m. Joint final Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor discussion


Other NOF and Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) public meeting dates:
Date Time Meeting
March 4 9 a.m. – 2 p.m. 2022 Salmon Forecasts and Fishing Opportunities (Puget Sound, Coastal WA, and Columbia River)

March 8 – 14 TBD PFMC Webinar March 8-14, 2022 Council Meeting - Pacific Fishery Management Council (pcouncil.org)

March 16 9 a.m. – 12 p.m. North of Falcon #1

March 30 9 a.m. – 3 p.m. North of Falcon #2

April 6 – 13 TBD PFMC Webinar to adopt final federal regulations April 6-13, 2022 Council Meeting - Pacific Fishery Management Council (pcouncil.org)

Please check our website for updated information throughout the NOF process.
If you have any questions regarding this schedule, please contact regional staff or reply to this email with your questions.

Thank you.

And the rest of the story? What was the response???

In answer to Larry's question I think the Tribes need to "image" of State participation to give an air of respectability. They may well control things, but they and the State can't really admit that publicly. And i don't think the Tribes want the responsibility of being recognized as the setters of the NI seasons. They may then be called to account.

Does anyone know what happened to the lawsuit the rec groups brought against WDFW to view the WDFW and Tribal negotiations? I remember the recs hired a couple of lawyers to handle the case. That seemed like a couple of years ago and I haven't heard anything since. I think the lawsuit wanted WDFW to also give up the minutes to the meetings. Is that still going on or was it swept under the rug. If I remember correctly the suit went before a Thurston County judge and I haven't heard anything since. Anybody know anything?

Are you talking about fishnorthwest.org?

WORD!

Tribal whipped we are.

Lay in the bed you made.
Yoda you are not.

Here is the latest for Grays Harbor and Kim identifies some changes. As distasteful as ZOOM meetings have become to most it will be ZOOM again.

All interested Grays Harbor parties,

For those participating in the 2022 North of Falcon public meetings, please be advised to periodically check the schedule at the following site: 2022 North of Falcon public meeting schedule | Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife

There have been some scheduling conflicts resulting in adjustments to some meeting dates and times. For instance, the Grays Harbor fisheries discussion originally scheduled for Tuesday, March 22 has changed to Monday, March 21. The meeting time is the same, 6 to 8 p.m. via Zoom webinar. Please remember to click the underlined blue font text “Zoom webinar” to register for the meeting you are interested in attending.

If you have questions regarding the Grays Harbor public meeting schedule or how to register for a meeting I would be happy to assist.

Have a great day,

Kim Figlar-Barnes
WDFW – Fish Management
Grays Harbor Area F & W Biologist
360-249-4628 Ext. 235
Region 6 Office
48 Devonshire, Rd. Montesano, WA 98563
graysharbor@dfw.wa.gov

This is a question about NOF and a suggestion as to how the whole process might improve.

As I understand it, the process kicks off when the PSF (Pre-season Forecasts) are agreed to. This is done in the winter before any NOF.

In my work in salmon management, we had the escapement and run size data for the salmon runs a few months after the last spawner died. At that point, you can make an escapement-based PSF for 2 (pinks), 3 (coho), or 4 (chum, Chinook, sockeye) years in the future. As each year rolls by you can add smolt outmigration and hatchery plants, various flow information, and some return for younger ages (sockeye and coho jacks, Chinook and chum age-3s).

Basically, you have forecasts that you update annually. It means that at least general patterns can the developed, issues of either low or high abundance can be dealt with early, and so on.

It would drag out the process, which might let it actually comply with APA.

Many preseason forecasts are still being worked up now. The PFMC Preseason I report that has most all coastwide Chinook and coho agreed-to forecasts will be out in a couple weeks. Most years there are a one or two stocks that have not gotten state, tribal agreement for this report. Agreement for these are usually worked out for the PFMC meeting in early March; not always though.

But what is your suggestion?

Work on them once the escapement is in in the brood year. Just keep adding. By the time you hit the real reg-setting time you have had a couple years to work it through.

Again, from experience, some of the disagreements on PSFs are because they don't offer enough harvest. To heck which PSF makes the most biological sense; they have to make harvest sense.

For Chinook and coho, state and tribal staff spend the winter putting the relevant numbers together to reconstruct the run of the previous year. Usually this reconstruction is a terminal run of catch and escapement. This dataset is used to make the upcoming forecast in a wide variety of methods. For coho, it is often an estimate of smolt outmigration applied to a marine survival rate (common in Puget Sound). It can also be the current year jacks to the history of adult returns per jacks the previous year such as for Columbia River coho. For Chinook is it often broodyear sibling regressions. It also can be simply a recent year average return (occurs when no reliable predictor has been found). Descriptions of the forecast methods for Chinook and coho stocks are in the PFMC Preseason I reports. The explanations can be a bit cryptic for most but you shouldn't have any trouble. The 2022 version of this report should be out in a couple of weeks.

https://www.pcouncil.org/documents/2021/03/2021-preseason-report-i.pdf/

But my point is as soon as they have the brood year run size they can forecast the return in 2/3/4 years. They can update the forecast when more information comes in or a new model is developed.

They can have forecasts years in advance and be continuously working on at least general options. The pencil sharpening can occur the last winter, but there is no reason why a rather accurate fishing plan is not developed further in advance.

This came in my email from a friend and is a comment on a subject in Steelhead Voices. Food for thought as the coming forecast will be driven by survival for hatchery releases.




matt k commented on Serious Business.
in response to rshooton:

Disquieting news from rivers within sight of some of our own. The question to ponder – are the current winter returns a predictor of the summer to follow or are they a reflection of the summer past? No clear answer but I’m leaning more to the former based on what we can see of distressingly […]

Looking at the Info that is coming from the international salmon survey, It seems this winter has been particular hard on fish.
“Last night we caught 7 sockeye at 52N, 147W, following a catch of three sockeye in the morning at 53N, 147W. Many of these fish again had enlarged, green gall bladders indicating poor feeding conditions,”
“The chum salmon looked thin, and had empty stomachs and enlarged gall bladders, suggesting they were struggling to find enough food”

https://nwsportsmanmag.com/2022-puget-sound-wa-coast-chinook-coho-forecasts-out/

It didn't seem like there was much interest in the Year of the Salmon winter ecosystem survey when it was mentioned earlier. The info you mentioned is from the Bell M. Shimada, a NOAA vessel, and not optimal for salmon surveys. They are using a trawl and are probably not towing fast. A more interesting vessel to follow is the Raw Spirit from Canada, a large commercial fishing vessel. They are using a Japanese research driftnet and floating longline gear which they deploy at night.They recently started their survey and are making interesting catches. Below are quotes from there online posts which might be of particular interest to steelhead fishers.

From March 2 after 2 stations talking about steelhead;

" Only one steelhead has been captured by the trawl in the previous two surveys in 2019 and 2020 when one was caught by the Pacific Legacy in 2020. The gillnet, which is floating right on the surface, is possibly more effective at capturing this surface-oriented species. Another first for the three years of the expedition is the catch six Oncorhynchus species in one set! Sockeye, coho, chum, pink, chinook and steelhead!!! "

"Total catch to date: 30 sockeye, 12 chum, 6 steelhead, 4 coho, 2 pink, 1 chinook plus black rockfish (several), squid and a dogfish. "

How much of what was discussed today actual gets presented to the co-managers? Seems like they should of already thought of seasons that the public presented today before today and had models ready. People requested in writing last week to have some sort of July opportunity in Area 7.

The trouble with the public NOF process is that are more than willing to ask for more than is possible given the constraints of ESA listed Chinook.

Even though the modeled fisheries were approximately 12% above the non-treaty share of allowable impacts all folks wanted to talk about was what more was wanted

Were the folks in MA 7 willing to give up the February winter blackmouth season to provide for some July opportunity? Seemed like the expectation is that some other fisheries would be cut.

curt

I think the question becomes what actually is the non-treaty share? Surely its quite a bit less than 50% of the harvest. What is our allowable impact on Stilly wild fish? It should be 4.5% but if you work the WDFW tools backwards we are really being allowed MAYBE 3%. The real numbers for chinook harvest are kept obscured just enough to pull the wool over everyone's eyes.

Look at the WDFW supplied coho impact model spreadsheet. If the Snohomish coho are such a concern what are treaty fishers allowed over 16,000 fish and reducing river escapement to 40,000, well below the 55,000 rebuilding plan goal? Meanwhile non-treaty fishers get a 2,500 fish impact. Hardly a 50/50 split. This same story repeats to a similar extent on every river.

We are constantly told we need to cut our fisheries to reduce impact when our impact is only 20-35% of the SUS harvest. The whole NOF show is just insulting and it's all just spit in our face every year.

I could go on and on but it's just tiring and infuriating. Its so obvious we get what the tribes allow us, the state has ZERO leverage and they know it.

I totally agree with the above.

And now that this realization has set in, try this organization on for size. The Wa. state political class has selected this group to help direct us all towards a new age progressive vision of our hunting future.

https://wawildlifefirst.org/


This will take care of the hunting side of the WDFW organization.

Thanks for the link 20ga; quite impressive HP there at the wolf huggers society! I agree, as hunters..we’re phucked in the long run with Dimslee and such progressives running the show.

Just read on another forum that NOF is totally stalled. The PS tribes won't negotiate until the coastal tribes are set, and that hasn't happened yet. Only a few days left, supposedly.

Does this surprise anyone?

Not surprising. Just another way to get WDFW to do the Tribe's wishes because they need to finalize in the last minute or two.

Exactly.

At some point it is the state is going to have to go back to the courts and get the tribes held in contempt. They are required by Boldt to negotiate. If they are present but acting in bad faith, the state could appeal to the courts to intervene. If they are refusing to even negotiate at all, then they should be in trouble. Boldt is an active case, with on going requirements. I think of it the same as if someone had a divorce case with custody or alimony and one side just decided to ignore the agreement and do as they pleased. Obviously the injured party would have the right to recourse.

4/14/2022

Time to open up the "meetings on NOF" between Tribes and WDFW to the general public.

Zoom is used nation wide, as a live media source....time to move the meetings into the 21 century. I understand that in the "old days", some individuals caused problems and meetings weren't able to be completed.

Zoom has the ability to allow just viewing only.......but could allow questions if the tribes and WDFW wanted to allow.

Really.....it is time to move on with this process

...at least the WDFW had the decency to inform us beforehand that the summer salmon season would only last three days in MA7...