PEAK OIL!

Just curious whar everyones take on this is, alot of info on the web. Input, thoughts, consequences etc. FS

If you were an oil man, the president of the usa and you understood the consequences of peak oil production what might you do?

Steal %16 of the world's remaining oil reserves thereby nullifying Chinas claim to them?

Good plan if your an oil man....


....and a douchebag.

Peak into the librium bottle and see if there are any left.

“Well, we've got good relations with a lot of members of OPEC. If the president does his job, the president will earn capital in the Middle East, and the president should have good standing with those nations. It's important for the president to explain, in clear terms, what high energy prices will not only do to our economy, but what high energy prices will do to the world economy.”

Presidential Candidate George W. Bush
January 26, 2000


“I think the president ought to get on the phone with the OPEC cartel and say, ‘We expect you to open your spigots.’ … The president of the United States must jawbone OPEC members to lower the price.”

Presidential Candidate George W. Bush
February 2, 2000


“I would work with our friends in OPEC to convince them to open up the spigot, to increase the supply. … Use the capital that my administration will earn, with the Kuwaitis or the Saudis, and convince them to open up the spigot.”

Presidential Candidate George W. Bush
June 28, 2000


“We're dependent upon crude. … I would hope the administration would convince our friends in OPEC to open the spigots.”

Presidential Candidate George W. Bush
June 22, 2000

OPEC production is at a 25 year high. The rest of the worlds production is flat. Demand is at an all time high. This = high prices. I do suppose it's easier to blame it on GW and get a standing ovation in this crowd.

Demand is at an all-time high, yet OPEC only produces enough to justify $65 a barrel, not MAXIMUM output.

I do suppose it's easier to believe OPEC and bushco aren't in it for maximum profit, thus remaing to look clueless in this crowd.

Warning!!!! conspiracy theroy alert!!! an old tired conspiracy threory is thrown out in place of a valid point, clue, inkling of what is really taking place.

How would OPEc move the oil if it bumped to max capacity there brainiac. How would it get refined? Where is the bulk of the refining done captian clueless?

It's amazing how many neocons need sparkly helmets!

It must get difficult pretending to be right all the time. Or always professing to have the right opinion while everyone else regardless of rationale are either doing drugs or are bleeding heart liberals.

Fortunately there are enough people in this world that live with their eyes open and are able to discern a little bit of reality out of the BS tossed to them daily. Sadly many are unable to see through what is being told to them either on TV or through "articles/books" they read. Claiming to read x amount of books or x amount of articles does nothing more than provide evidence to those with brains that your reading for comprehension level is very very low....

The best is the claim that there is only ONE TRUE way for correct Biblicle interpretation. I seem to remember a few rocket scientists in Guyana drinking cool aid thinking the exact same thing... But hey, if you like cool aid who am I to stop you! (oops there I go bashing Christians, how typical)

How bout the time Senor sparkly helmet claimed that if you believe you married your best friend then you are really just hiding from unresolved issues. Because we all know men and women cannot be best friends and if they are well, one of em must be gay.

I'm sure there will be attempts to nuke me now especially seeing as how I paraphrased a lot, as the thought of searching for quotes from prior posts of sir Sparkly Helmet seemed nauseating.

So forgive the paraphrasing and I will promise to stop teasing the retard. Do you think his parents told him the Sparkly Helmet was a crown hence the moniker?? OOOOOOOOOO I just thought of another conspiracy theory........

Poor Elvis; never could follow a conversation. Maybe counseling would help. Oh, that's right... never mind.

Am,

Could you find an older document? The releveance of 2001 statistics today is what. I could pull up some 1973 docs that show the relative cost of gas is not as high today as it was then what purpose would that serve? Knock Knock! Oil companies are in the business for profit.

You all have to make up your minds which conspiracy theory you want to run with. The it's dick Cheney's war to make Haliburton rich or the GW war to make the oil companies rich theory. The peak oil theory does not cut it because that would mean its based on supply and demand not "the man" Pulling the puppet strings.

Am,

If you call the SOR , World wide demand expanding and all worldwide output but OPEC flat minor adjustments then you would be a fool. The world laughs when the lower and middle class of the US whines.

Seems the neocons have forsaken capitalism and are now disciples of corporate welfare and government sanctioned profiteering.

Harley,

I think you're right on the money here.

BTW, they tried this in Italy and Germany in the thirties and it worked great for them too(until it didn't )

"The world situation has much less impact on our price at the pump than the actions of US owned oil companys to decrease refined supply by unethical practices."

Lets say for arguments sake that all of your points are valid. What effect has the increased production of OPEC to 25 year highs have? What impact does the price of crude doubling have? Where do you suppose the oil companies are putting all the excess OPEC produced oil, in swimming pools, because OPEC is being paid for it?

It stinks of the same consipracy theory that GE and other companies profited from the Vietnam war etc. etc. etc.

Sure OPEC and the oil companies are profiting. Who cares and who has a gun to your head saying you have to do business with them?

That is the big problem with Peak oil it is built on a static model. The economy is a dynamic entity and there are balancing effects that will take place. Some have already started to take place. People are switching vehicles, driving less, adjusting their personal spending etc. etrc. etc. Economists predict the real effects will take place closer to $4 a gallon. A lot will happen between now and then. If you could predict even one of them you could be very wealthy indtead of disgruntled and looking at the glass as half full. But then you could not be a liberal and what would the neighbors think.

AM.

Never said peak oil ws a conspiracy theory. I said it ws built on a static model. The same model mechanics used to predict human population growth years ago. The same model that said there would be 15 billion people on earth today. I read your crapola but it is usually biased to meet your agenda of bashing bush. You lose all reason with that hate. There are at least several hundred sources that debunk peak oil and shoot your Bush and his buddies war for oil conspiracy theory right in the head. It's easier to pander lies to fuel your hate than to reason.

The conspiracy theory alert cam into play when Harley blamed it on Bush. I made no direct mention of Peak oil being a conspiracy theory. You will twist it to your needs so I will leave it there.
How would dicussing Peak oil make someone a liar? Sure lots of people talked about Peak oil when the theory was first launched. There is in fact a cross over point where available oil is less. Where Peak oil falls down is when it will happen and how substitue energy sources will come on line. You could drive a truck through their economic model and assumptions. Todays oil prices prove it.

AM,
I know you like the readers digest version so you can digest it and crap it back out in the time it takes to drop a deuce. This one will take a little work so pull up a Stool. Pun intended.

First you have to have the discussion about the origin of oil. Peak oilers belive it to originate from dead plants and animals. 60 years of research says that is not true.


http://www.csun.edu/~vcgeo005/Energy.html

Some big words in here be careful

Interesting read.

Wikepedia is not a resource. It is a web site that anyone can add any information.

....a fantasy.

Put peak oil and or peak oil vs or any of these in " " into google. It should yeild several 1000 pages.

tar sands, oil shale, bitumen, biofuels, thermal depolymerization (TDP) of organic matter, and the conversion of coal or natural gas to liquid hydrocarbons through the Fischer-Tropsch process. Abiogenic petroleum origin ,Renewable energy, Future energy development . Etc etc.

That should keep you busy for a while. No go off and learn something.

Geez, you'd think that someone who infers to be an expert on every subject posted here, plus the most read individual in this forum, would easily be able to post links to a mulititude of references for his arguments.

Unless he's......





..... full of shyt.

Hmmmmm. So which is it? Peak Oil, or abyssal abiotic oil production?

I think either way, the petroleum industry looks like a good investment.

How can you debate with people that still think that the fossil fuel myth to be true. That debate ended with scientists over 20 years ago. You have attached yourself to a mathmatical theory based on a myth. All one needs to do is type in peak oil into google to see. why. It's all tied to the left conspiracy theory bent. You will see Peak oil, Irag, 911 all tied together. I can only hope that the worst case scenario of peak oil come true because the world will have much fewer of you whack jobs. Any that are left after the crash will get shot in short order.

in my thread of the same title from over a year ago i predicted three dollars a gallon by the end of this summer (check) and four dollars by the end of next.

we have reached the downward portion of the curve. every new disaster, every new 'refinery accident', every new war etc will just drive the price even higher. the important thing isn't that the price is going up, it's that the price will not come back down.

I say we just tap into alaska's oil and screw the rest of the world let them fend for themselves

I was reading the news from NC and after hurricane katrina blew threw knocking out a oil refinary, and limiting them to 10 days worth of fuel in the above ground tanks. The price of low octain gas sored to 3.00 to 7.00 a gal. all the way up to fayetteville nc. How in the world can anyone justify those price's? I guess the old saying "get while the gettin's good" pretty much sum's it up.

AM,

I just read threw your post agin and seen the southern word "YA'LL"
Got a little southern in ya? If so don't let BW hear you, I catch an ear full every time I come home and use them their words

Better get that bunker built there H20. Funny a guy with so much insight and ability to predict the future would bring a baby into that doom and gloom scenario.

Pigs reported to be flying in Western Washington. Pat Robertson reports that god called him and said Hell has frozen over. there is a 50 ft purple jesus approaching New Orleans!

I hate to be the one to ruin H20's little Doom and Gloom party--but it turns out that there is enough Oil Shale in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming that once refined will produce enough oil to supply appoximately 25% our countries oil needs for the next 400 years (or 100% for 100 years).

The funny thing is that the Rand corporation who's been doing the R&D on it says that the majority of it in in Colorado (where Dick Cheney owns a ranch w/ 1000's of acres). I can't wait to here the conspiracy theories to follow.

It will take some time to bring on line, but it looks there's light at the end of tunnel (that isn't actually a train--sorry H20). The Rand corporation says that they predict that it can be havested and refined for $40 a barrel or less.

So while I still think it's prudent to develop economically feesable alternatives of energy--there's going to be several things available (more domestic drilling, building new refineries, and bringing Oil Shale on line) until those alternatives are made available.

What a Blessing it is to live in this truley great country!!

http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/publications/Pubs-NPR/40010-373.pdf

Where'd you get the $40/bbl quote from that posted link?

i don't believe we are going to run out of oil anytime soon.

we ARE however going to run out of cheap oil and i truly believe we have seen the last of sub $3.00/gal gas. probably premature to to go that far out on a limb so soon..........

so there is a vast oil shale reserve? does the technology exist to exploit it such that it actually has an effect on the total us reserve? imo, not even close

oil shale oil will be expensive oil both in terms of its cost to extract and the energy it takes to process and refine.

american oil companies have not invested in the necessary infrastructure to make up for peaking world oil production. as a result of our inability to produce enough oil domestically to cover our own demand we will continue to be dependent on foreign oil for many more decades.

foreign oil whose production has peaked or is poised to peak in the face of skyrocketing world demand. this means more expensive oil right now and ever onward.

foreign oil = expensive oil

oil-shale oil = unproven future technology....expensive oil IF the resource is ever fully exploited. i'm not saying it may not be an exploitable resource it's just not the panacea that you wish it were.

heck, the government hasn't even earmarked any r & d incentives for oil companies to explore its viability til 2009 so.....

i don't even think you read your own linked pdf Rory. all of the promise of oil-shale technology is talked about in future tense.

we'll see how it pans out though won't we? with gas at $3.09 in Forks this morning it looks a lil closer to my scenario than yours.

'peak oil' is not a conspiracy, it is a reality and every geologist NOT affiliated with the oil industry will likely confirm this fact.

i have never, not once ever presented the peak oil scenario as being gloomy or doomy.

quite the contrary...

...i relish the challenge of surviving in an age where one has to become more sulf-sufficient and less reliant on corporate america to provide them with whatever may be needed at a moment's notice. by all means let's move away from the 'consumer' economy, its killing america.

i just hope my family doesnt have to suffer unduly during whatever transition takes place.

I'd also be interested in the source of that $40/barrel for oil shale oil statement. Everything I've read indicates that extraction and refinement is expensive, which is the main reason the initial pursuit in the early 80s was dropped. Oh, and extracting oil shale will trash the environment, but since it's only Colorado and Wyoming, why would Rory care? Heck, he doesn't seem to object to trashing the environment right here in WA where he fishes. It ain't rose colored glasses he's wearing, Aunty, he's simply dillusional.

Sincerely,

Salmo g.

Everything I have read says shale oil becomes viable at $60 per BBL.

They've know about the deposits of Oil Shale in Colrado, Utah and Wyoming since at least the 1970's--Then there was an oil boom in Texas in the late 70's and early 80's that didn't make it seem as though harvesting and refining the the oil shale was worthwhile when it was so readily available in the Lone Star state--needless to say, the situation is a little different today.

It was on Wednesday or Thursdays CNBC's Power Lunch that they said oil shale could eventually come on line and produce large amounts of usable oil within 10 to 12 years ( I tried to post a video link but they only have todays and when you go back further it goes to 6/15) and allowing for refining costs and reasonable profit could be made available for $40 a barrel.

They also said that since it is a solid, until it's heated to over 900 degrees that harvesting it and transporting it to refining facilities would have a substancially lower environmental impact than that of conventional oil.

I doubt you will see it as the options are, what? Someones got to lose here and it will happen in the back rooms first.

we are dying from supply side solutions-----and from ignoring common sense for 30 years in order to enrich the oil companies.....

your still coming up with supply side solutions rory ??????? you obviously hate humanity and are hell bent on eradicating it from this earth........nothing conservative about that..

supply sided theory comes solely from those who understand nothing.....absolutely nothing about economics or business theory........

kk- i know what ya mean....it seems so simple.... why are we dems so retarded sometimes that we cant sell something that makes as much sense as what you wrote...

some days i bang my head on the wall and think there is only one political party......it just has two seperate coat rooms with different names on the doors......... both parties are pro WTO and that is where the problem arises.........WTO is pro oil and anti community

It just makes me want to throw a rock through the front window of a Starbucks.

They are building the 3rd coffee shack down by the totem pole. Tell me which one is your favortie and I will huck a few rocks at the others in solidarity with my Brahs in Peru

A drive by rocking

I don't drink coffee but my wife likes the one next to the Tesoro

Whoops 4 I forgot the one the whack job at the dog spa is trying to open in the airstream trailer. Get a cup of joe and drop the hound off for a masage some counciling and a nice relaxing swim with some harp music.

The owner is some Ex Intel employee that made too much off of options. It is a holistic center for healing animals . You can even get grief counciling for your other pets when one dies. I was thinking of taking a dead fish or some road kill in after a day on the river and getting a little help dealing with its death. Maybe get it a few laps around the therapy pool

It's called Heavenly Spa

Hey now, a dog living in Fall City might just need counseling.

Aren't they called Beauty shops in Fall City?

For you they would be Stlhd The fat ugly ones prefer the sensitive types with a Koy pond

Always the jealous one TK.

Maybe I have never had a fat ugly chick or a koy pond and no one has ever accused me of being sensative. Tell me what it's like so I know for sure?

Well, to me anyways, it beats the heck out of your "intimate" get togethers with Rory at a Fall City Beauty Salon.

It's Ok for a chick to have a goldfish pond and to be senthitive

yeah I had cheap Koy but I think the Heron got them all. Goldfish reproduce. I probably have 50 or 60. What TK's simple mind, if you call it a mind, can't comprehend is that you don't have to mow a pond. I really don't have to do much of anything to it. And the stream and waterfall drown out noise. Had bullfrogs at one time too. I think the heron gobbled them as well.

It's all about balance grasshopper. You got to get your yin lined up with your yang.

If one creates a buffet for the wild it would be foolish to expect them not to feast.

Stlhd,

Real men mow

Oh don't worry your little head about it TK. I still have lot's of mowing to do and I'll bet more yard work that ten of you. So, why don't you go out and torture some more small animals.

Only a fool has too much to mow a smart guy has livestock do all the work.

that's right...the farm on the news...that was you!

Am, is yours a pond liner? How big? Mine is about 12' x 12' and four feet at the deep end with a stream and waterfall. I have a natural biofilter set up in a barrel and disguised in a hollowed out stump and the water stays crystal clear. Rockery and aquatic plants all around and then the deck is built around half of it. So far my bamboo grate has kept the heron at bay. I found a guy who grows bamboo otherwise it would have been too costly. I cut and cable tied it which was pretty tedious work and made it two piece so I can lift the front part off if I need to. Work making it but not much to maintain it.

yup, or an electric fence. All of which have their downsides. I'd be interested in the bamboo if it was big enough to build trellis and such. The stuff is invasive to grow.

Yeah that does sound nice!!! The bio filter has a natural algae that cleans the water. It's in a 55 gallon plastic drum. My filter for the pump in the pond is one inch PVC put together in a large, almost half the pond, three pronged square which I've partially sliced with a saw every two inches. Then the whole thing is wrapped with a fine mesh. It lays under the pea gravel that covers the bottom. I've never had a sick fish just dumb ones that get gobbled up. I also have a waterproof light in there. You turn it on at night and frogs I never knew were in there will sun themselves in front of the light.

I said Algae but yeah it's a bacteria. It all looks like a bunch of algae. here's decent site on ponds:

http://www.moorehaven.com/

First TK says real men mow (where he gets support for that idea, I have no clue). Then he says only a fool has too much to mow, and a smart guy has the livestock do the work. Come on TK, you can’t have it both ways. Which is it? How much is too much to mow anyway? Can it be done with the little Lawn Boy, or are you still a real man if you have enough that it requires a John Deer riding mower? Seems like your "real man" would have a JD rider, so he can burn more gas. You’re a peculiar read, to say the least.

aunty- try an aquarium heater and some pihrana .....then look for the three legged racoons with the headlights as your driving...and you know which ones to aim for

That would also be good for disposing of bodies...if you're into that sort of thing.

SG,

"How much is too much to mow anyway"

A real man would know that

TK,

Yes, I know. And I don't mow. A real man knows life is too short to mow the grass (what livestock is for), drink cheap wine (or Scotch or bourbon), or drink canned beer, and that fishing is next to Godliness. Or maybe it is Godliness.

Sincerely,

Salmo g.

twenty bucks says elvis' old lady's lawn could use a little trim.

$100 says H20's concubine's back 40 was plowed so often before they shacked up the county was considering special zoning.