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#981760 - 11/19/17 05:40 PM Re: Team eyeFISH 2011 retrospective - Buoy 10 ***** [Re: eyeFISH]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
But to recover those fish, or any of the Chinook stocks, it will be necessary to really choke off the marine mixed stock fisheries. That won't happen. They will find interesting justifications to keep on keeping on.

Ultimately, the God Squad will bow to the obvious and say that the Chinook can go extinct.

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#981761 - 11/19/17 05:59 PM Re: Team eyeFISH 2011 retrospective - Buoy 10 [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Nez Perce tribe is heavily engaged/invested in a intensive hatchery-based recovery program that so far is paying off in terms of in-river abundance. But at what cost? To what extent it can be self-sustaining is the bigger question in my mind.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#981799 - 11/20/17 09:15 PM Re: Team eyeFISH 2011 retrospective - Buoy 10 [Re: eyeFISH]
Jake Dogfish Offline
Spawner

Registered: 06/24/00
Posts: 554
Loc: Des Moines
Tough fish to survive this far!

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#981829 - 11/21/17 06:48 PM Re: Team eyeFISH 2011 retrospective - Buoy 10 [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Carcassman... whaddaya say about these conservation metrics?


pHOS > 70%
pNOB < 10%
PNI < 0.06


Are these compatible with conservation hatchery "best practices" at volumes of 50-60K spawners? What would Mobrand think?
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#981830 - 11/21/17 07:06 PM Re: Team eyeFISH 2011 retrospective - Buoy 10 [Re: eyeFISH]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Lars would not be very happy with numbers like that.

A little known bit of information about Lars is that he was a front-line salmon manager for a while. So, he's familiar with the pressures of day to day managing back in the day when you managed every day.

Plus, as the developer of many of the models that produce pNOB and pHOS and so on he knows the details.

These aren't conservation metrics but they do allow fisheries and can try and fuzz the issue enough to make folks think they're getting it done.

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#981833 - 11/21/17 07:55 PM Re: Team eyeFISH 2011 retrospective - Buoy 10 [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
More here in a nice eye-pleasing "gee whizz" format.

http://www.critfc.org/fish-and-watershed...r-fall-chinook/
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#997104 - 11/18/18 05:09 PM Re: Team eyeFISH 2011 retrospective - Buoy 10 [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Been in fish-geek mode this weekend.

The subject of timelines for salmon recovery came up at our Willapa Bay Advisor meeting yesterday when the state posed the question of whether or not a 20 yr timeline is a reasonable expectation for wild chinook recovery in WB?

Advisors were told to consider things in the context of "other" chinook recovery plans. Staff cited that many NOAA-F plans are framed within the perspective of reducing extinction risk within 100 years. They also cited recovery woes in Puget Sound.... ESA listed since 1999.... with NOTHING to show for all of the recovery "efforts" to date. What could one reasonably expect in 20 yrs?

I countered with an example from the other end of the spectrum.... Snake River fall chinook. ESA-listed 26 years ago when the wild population was reduced to only 78 spawners! In recent years, recovery efforts spearheaded largely by the Nez Perce nation have resulted in annual returns of 50-60K adults.

Granted, most of them are hatchery origin spawners with the latest science demonstrating HRSG metrics of :

pNOB = 0.28
pHOS = 0.76
PNI = 0.27

https://www.fws.gov/lsnakecomplan/Meetin...20symposium.pdf

Not exactly the best HSRG metrics for wild recovery, BUT....

It fits modern-day societal expectations of abundance.... and more importantly the ability to conduct fisheries. In this case, at a 65% exploitation rate!

Is this truly wild recovery? Or just an expensive convoluted scheme to prop up entrenched fisheries?

I don't know.... but as the years go by, the more convinced I am that if there's no incentive to be able to fish on them, our motivations to recover them simply evaporate.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#997105 - 11/18/18 05:39 PM Re: Team eyeFISH 2011 retrospective - Buoy 10 [Re: eyeFISH]
Salmo g. Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13520
". . . if there's no incentive to be able to fish on them, our motivations to recover them simply evaporate."

True dat. Right now it's looking like 20 years with billions spent and a population trend line that continues downward is trying the patience of agencies (like US Army Corps of Engineers) that have to fund many recovery measures. Taxpayers too, excepting for the current infatuation with Orcas. Sustaining recovery efforts for 100 years might seem like great job security, but I strongly doubt it can weather the ebb and flow of politics. And that is what ultimately will support or not support recovery.

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#997107 - 11/18/18 05:57 PM Re: Team eyeFISH 2011 retrospective - Buoy 10 [Re: eyeFISH]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7410
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Look at the recovery of Fraser sockeye. IPSFC was in business for 50 years and left the resource in much better shape than when they started. They approached recovery from an always fishing but always increasing escapement. It worked well, at least over that period.

Also, many states in the West have gone after restoring native trouts. They succeeded in getting the fish down listed from Endangered to Threatened so that they could have fishing on them. Has worked there, too.

I doubt that we will be successful with Pacific salmon because they affect too wide a swath of the world. Too many people, too many demands, and the fish require too much land and water. Resident trout need significantly less, so we'll do them.

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