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#988035 - 04/15/18 02:22 PM Re: NEW Willapa Bay Control Zone [Re: eyeFISH]
Geoduck Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 08/10/02
Posts: 437
Please tellme I am wrong, but this stinks like another RW boondoggle.
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#988048 - 04/15/18 11:40 PM Re: NEW Willapa Bay Control Zone [Re: Geoduck]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Originally Posted By: Geoduck
If this is about CR chinook, then we have a real problem as your prioritizing a non-selective B10 fishery over a selective WB fishery.


The fact that it was ramroded through without consideration and in contravention of the WB policy is a real problem.

Let's talk about the impacts for a sec. If one assumes that we average 500 fish in WB in that zone ( I suspect less)and half of them are wild and we apply standard mortality. We're talking about 38 fish. That's about what 4 hours worth of wild fish harvest at B10.



Just understand I am only the messenger of this bad news. NONE of us wanted it, but larger powers were at play, and it WILL happen because a comprehensive but convoluted season has been crafted at PFMC to make all the numbers fit. They're counting on WB exploitation that is statistically indistinguishable from ZERO in order to make the ocean and B-10 packages fit within ESA/PFMC/PSC constraints.

Since the most prominent ESA-listed non-local stock is tules (anyone who has spent much time at WB has caught 'em), you are right. WAY MORE of them killed non-select in the ocean right next door and a few miles south off Long Beach as well as Buoy 10/in-river IN ONE DAY than we could possibly kill at WB all season

The alleged issue is that the WB fishery encounters them in enough numbers to be a concern esp since it previously hasn't been accounted for. The ocean king fishery is largely reliant upon the harvest of tules.... and yes, so is Buoy 10. Some years the proportion of kings harvested in the CR estuary is as high as 70% tules.

BUT....

This year, the coho will be a bigger constraint to the ocean season than tules. Moreover, unlike most of the past decade plus, URB's will be the rate-limiting stock at Buoy 10 for 2018 rather than tules.

If there was ever a year that a few tules could be "safely" expended at WB, this is it.

Unfortunately managers at WDFW and the PFMC were quick to pick up on this new supposed "black hole" of tule exploitation and they put it squarely in their cross hairs for elimination.

How many tules will be saved? Who really knows? The dataset is for only TWO YEARS. And now that the August rec fishing will be closed in the control zone, there will be no way to monitor the non-local contribution without a test fishery to see what's even in there in real time. HMMM.... from the standpoint of logistical efficiency to catch a big enough sample, "test" can only mean gillnet.

The saving grace is that by Policy, no gillnets are allowed in the north bay until after Labor Day. Would they make an exception for a test fishery? Who knows.... NONE of us were savvy enough to ask the question at the final WB meeting last Thursday night.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#988053 - 04/16/18 07:51 AM Re: NEW Willapa Bay Control Zone [Re: eyeFISH]
Smalma Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/25/01
Posts: 2844
Loc: Marysville
eyefish-
Thanks for the clarification; can say I am surprised that was the way things played out. I also agree that if there are to be some limitations on the WB recreational marine fishery drawing that line is likely the less painful way to go though as you say the Columbia model gains from such a move has to be dubious.

When I look at the forecasts that becomes even more questionable. This year the WB chinook forecast was 44,000 and the Columbia fall forecasts was 357,000 (both include both hatchery and wild fish). In the previous 5 years the WB forecast average 34,400 (range from 27.1 K to 39.3 K and the Columbia forecast 917,800 (range from 568.9K to 1,518.7K) meaning that the ratio of the of Columbia dip-in fish to WB fish in the bay will be the lowest in recent years.

There does appear to be some irony in that we all complain about the high degree interception of "our" fish in northern fishery (BC and Alaska) yet the managers appear to be more than willing to limit the more terminal fisheries to provide as much opportunity in our largest mixed stock fishery (the ocean). I guess it makes a difference who is doing the intercepting!

If this Willapa Bay closure zone is the going to be the new paradigm it will clearly continue the under cutting of placing a high priority on recreational fishery.

Curt

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#988056 - 04/16/18 09:14 AM Re: NEW Willapa Bay Control Zone [Re: Geoduck]
slabhunter Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 01/17/04
Posts: 3742
Loc: Sheltona Beach
Originally Posted By: Geoduck
Please tellme I am wrong, but this stinks like another RW boondoggle.


I believe this poke is brought to us by PA
Who is representing the state at the PFMC.

I still don't trust him since a NOF meeting in Olympia a few years ago. Was there for the morning session, WB discussion. I thought things were settled so I left. After lunch things got changed. lame
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When we are forgotten, we cease to exist .
Share your outdoor skills.

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#988060 - 04/16/18 09:36 AM Re: NEW Willapa Bay Control Zone [Re: FleaFlickr02]
slabhunter Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 01/17/04
Posts: 3742
Loc: Sheltona Beach
Originally Posted By: FleaFlickr02
My guess is that, whether it's gillnet or experimental alternative, the gear of choice will be intended for commercial purposes. I sense an "emergency opener" coming the WBGA's way this summer/fall (unless one of the actual run sizes come in below forecast, that is).


My concern is the use of commercial gear to monitor stocks and species will take more ESA listed chinook than having a hook and line fishery in the area.
_________________________
When we are forgotten, we cease to exist .
Share your outdoor skills.

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#988066 - 04/16/18 12:21 PM Re: NEW Willapa Bay Control Zone [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Lead WB bio reassured me that there is no intent to put gillnets in the CZ for a test fishery. Other indices of stock composition in 2T will be used to monitor what's going on in-season.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#988067 - 04/16/18 12:40 PM Re: NEW Willapa Bay Control Zone [Re: eyeFISH]
slabhunter Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 01/17/04
Posts: 3742
Loc: Sheltona Beach
eyeFISH, Thanks for bringing this to light.

applause
_________________________
When we are forgotten, we cease to exist .
Share your outdoor skills.

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#988072 - 04/16/18 02:00 PM Re: NEW Willapa Bay Control Zone [Re: slabhunter]
FleaFlickr02 Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 10/28/09
Posts: 3314
Originally Posted By: slabhunter
Originally Posted By: FleaFlickr02
My guess is that, whether it's gillnet or experimental alternative, the gear of choice will be intended for commercial purposes. I sense an "emergency opener" coming the WBGA's way this summer/fall (unless one of the actual run sizes come in below forecast, that is).


My concern is the use of commercial gear to monitor stocks and species will take more ESA listed chinook than having a hook and line fishery in the area.


Agreed.

Just FYI, it's good not to put too much stock in what I write here; my viewpoint is jaded, and it sometimes leads me to false or premature assumptions when "weird" changes are introduced to fishery models.

Glad eyeFISH chimed in with the assurance there won't be any "test" or "emergency" openers for the nets.

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#988087 - 04/16/18 08:13 PM Re: NEW Willapa Bay Control Zone [Re: FleaFlickr02]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4394
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
Quote:
I still don't trust him since a NOF meeting in Olympia a few years ago. Was there for the morning session, WB discussion. I thought things were settled so I left. After lunch things got changed


Ah yeah the words that got blurted were " it ain't safe to go to lunch anymore "
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