Large slide at Oso across the N Fork Stilly

https://www.facebook.com/SkagitBreaking

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Massive-mudslide-blocks-road-destroys-home-near--251711901.html

Last I read it has dammed up the river causing evacuations to Stanwood.

Was worried about family that lives on Steelhead Drive but finally heard that they weren't at home at the time.

NOOOOO why my river?

Wild water data.

When the mud dam gives way, anything could happen. It could start as a trickle, then get bigger, or break loose all at once and become a really bad flood and debris event. When the upper Nisqually did this about twenty years ago, it cut a new channel through the valley for about a half mile. This is a real bad deal.

This is going to be an epic disaster...gauge still says zero cfs.

Fish on...

Todd

Thoughts and prayers to the victims and their families.

Looks like the Hazel slide (old timers sometimes refer it as the Halterman slide) let loose again.

The Hazel slide is a area of natural instability whose activity is believe to be influence by river action at its toe and logging upslope. This the third time since the early 1950s that a major slide at that location has completely dammed the river. The second event was in 1967 where the river was temporarily dammed and the river was forced to a historic slide channel on the south side. In recent years that have lesser but significant events in 1988 and 2006 where the river was partially dammed. I recall a study looking at the slide some 15 years ago (don't remember the year) determined that the slide would remain active and it was likely just a matter of time until another major event occurred with no way of predicting when that might be though a period of exception rainfall might be a triggering event. At the time it was thought that the most likely worst case the river would be dammed and the land flow would extend well to the south though as I recall was not expected to come close to hwy 530.


Curt

The south fork did this years ago.
Hopefully this will let loose slowly and just make a new bend in the river and not wipe out the whole valley.

Flooding reported on the east side of the slide now

Currently watching the morning press conference. The slide was about 1 sq. mile and the entire Steelhead Drive neighborhood is pretty well wiped out. Very sad.

The back-up / dam is fully saturated, but holding and they cannot get into it for further rescue. Engineers are currently determining what to do.

Sad for the people effected but could you imagine the same scenario on the Columbia.

Haven't seen any new photo's today, everything I'm finding was all taken yesterday or just before dark?

I did happen on the Columbia, Just up stream from Wenatchee.

When was this and apparently it wasn't large enough to reroute the river like this did.

Whoa!

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1872_12_15.php

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like this slide completely engulfs the 2006 slide. Essentially the same slide just higher up and deeper into the mountain.

Very bad. Arlington gauge reading ~700 cfs so not a lot of water if any getting thru.

Sounds like the perfect place to build mega dams

Broodbuster -

The Hazel slide is a area of natural instability whose activity is believe to be influence by river action at its toe and logging upslope. This the third time since the early 1950s that a major slide at that location has completely dammed the river. The second event was in 1967 where the river was temporarily dammed and the river was forced to a historic slide channel on the south side. In recent years that have lesser but significant events in 1988 and 2006 where the river was partially dammed. I recall a study looking at the slide some 15 years ago (don't remember the year) determined that the slide would remain active and it was likely just a matter of time until another major event occurred with no way of predicting when that might be though a period of exception rainfall might be a triggering event. At the time it was thought that the most likely worst case the river would be dammed and the land flow would extend well to the south though as I recall was not expected to come close to hwy 530.

Thoughts and payers to the victims and their families.

Curt

Any comprehensive copter video around. Surprised have not seen any on the news yet with lake forming behind and river dry below?

heard on tv that 18 people are missing

Here is a good Vid from the Sheriff Dept fly over

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WwdPT07FfI&feature=youtu.be

Yea too bad. Family members buried alive. An awful death for sure.

Can't say anything more about my petty complaints about lost days of fishing.

Hope a survivor or two or ten can still be found!

good luck

Curt, is there a possibility that the 1300 ft. crib wall may have impacted the severity of the slide? Like it may have caused the slope to retain more water than it was accustomed to retaining over the last seven years? Just wondering....

Whatever the cause, a tragedy for sure. I always called the hole the "School Bus Turnaround", and it has always looked like a bomb was accidentally dropped there. I usually fished it when the 'Chuck was closed and/or the Sky was low and gin clear as the slide pumped in color and made the river a perfect green below it.

Ike

Thanks for sharing! Really gives a unbelievable perspective of the catastrophe.

Crazy.Good luck,

SZ

School Bus was good before the 2006 slide, barely fishable after it unless everywhere else was bone dry (like Ike said)...and now it's gone. Long gone.

There are a lot of people in those houses still, and calling it a "rescue operation" is just being nice...it's going to become a "salvage" operation soon, I'm afraid.

Fish on...

Todd

Some flyover video courtesty of the KCSO.



Fish on...

Todd

At least the water is now flowing, which is about the only positive thing that can be said. What a horrible event.

Strangely enough...I think the massive size of the slide actually was a blessing for many people/things downstream, there's no way there was going to be any sort of catastrophic failure of the slide/dam that would cause a big flood downstream, it was so much bigger than the river it just took a couple of days for the river to dig a new channel around it rather than back up the river and then watch it blow out.

Fish on...

Todd

Yeah, as far as water flow, the pic from the Seattle Times shows it well.

Smalma,

Thanks for the history.

That's an incredible picture. Let's hope for more survivors

A interactive display that shows where the houses and road was before the slide. Very sobering.

http://seattletimes.com/flatpages/local/interactivebeforeandafterthe530mudslide.html

Wow!

Wow is right. I didn't realize it came all the way past the highway. It was a long walk from the highway to the base of the slide at the old school bus hole.

I have heard today that the Stillaguamish Tribe has donated $100K and the Tulalip Tribe has donated another $150K to the rescue/recovery operation.

Fish on...

Todd

Here's another very sobering interactive photo site.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/...400000&_r=3

Fish on...

Todd

Hard to think how these folk met their death.

Especially the ones who were banging on the walls Sat nite....gives me the willies to think of it.

They found the body of the lil 4-month old girl
--insert sad face

Todd,
Thanks for posting that. I was wondering about the status of one of the first homes just downstream of C-Post.
I looks like it got hit by the slide.
SF

Born and raised in Washington State.....I can say that I've never fished in the Stilly. Thanks for all the comments, vids. and pictures..

My question is.....As I look at the pictures....it shows the Arlington/Darrington Road.......Is that road completely covered, if so how far to the South does the mud go????? If the road is covered, is it deep....10 - 12 foot.....

Pictures from the air, are hard for me to judge....

Thanks for any insight to help me understand....

Based on my knowledge of the area and from what I can see in pictures, the mud covered HWY 530 anywhere from 4-10 feet deep (approximately), for about 1/3 mile length of roadway, and spilled past the highway to the south into the woods up to 150 yards in places.

Based on how far the mud spread, it's clear the houses near the river which in some cases are now under 30-40 feet of mud never stood any chance and were totally consumed and demolished.

A survivor on Komo Last night said his entire house was picked up and moved 150 yards by the flow.

It is difficult to comprehend how the hillside could become that saturated, travel that far and with such volatility without raising any suspicion whatsoever.

Suspicion?

It's done it before in the exact same spot. In fact, the Stillaguamish might be the worst basin for slides around...it seems there is one or another on either the main forks or major tribs every single year.

It was somewhere around ten years ago that the Stillaguamish Tribe (I believe, it may have been the Tulalips) objected strenuously enough to a logging proposal due to unstable hillsides that the project got scrapped...much to the chagrin, and with much handwringing, by the proponents of the project.

As sad and tragic as this whole situation is...to say it was "unimaginable" , "unforseeable", or "surprising" would be grossly incorrect.

Fish on...

Todd

spot on... This area has been documented as an unstable hillside going back to the 1950's...

interesting article:

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2023218573_mudslidewarningsxml.html

Sky-Guy, JTD, and Todd:

Thanks for the comments.......now that helps me get a better understanding of how far to the South the mud flowed.

Todd.........I wondered the same......too many permits are allowed in areas, that should not be.

here is an image from the article... slide prone terrain might be a bit of an understatement...

That article sums it up pretty well.

To my understanding that whole hillside is just glacial till...essentially a big pile of loose gravel and dirt.

Remove the trees, add water, and it becomes a big pile of mud.

When the force of gravity exceeds the friction required to hold it together, the pile of mud becomes a landslide.

Fish on...

Todd

I'm afraid that once the shock and sadness goes away there will be a lot of anger and finger pointing...at one of the spectrum will be safety and sanity, and at the other end will be money, both the landowners' and the county's...and it will be pretty clear which one won out, again.

Fish on...

Todd

he was inside the house, watch this video if you havent seen it:

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Lands...-252560411.html

No Sir. No suspicion here.


Just disbelief like metioned before. I am not a geologist and I have never seen a slide go so far or in such a liquid state.


I am just awestruck. I will add that Piper's info is new for me and answer some of the challenges I heard on the radio today.

Todd, you are spot on. I can already see the Governments scrambling to avoid blame. This was a foreseeable tragedy, it was going to happen again and again. What was surprising was the magnitude of this slide. My thoughts and prayers are with the survivors and the searchers. The victims are already in a better place....

The earth moves it's no surprise to any one. The lawyers will come running because no one insures earth movement of this type with out a specific policy. The next deep pockets are the tax payers. Which is ridiculous because more than 3 million people live in the traditional paths of lahars of local volcanos. Is it the governments fault people build their homes there because they issued permits? Personal responsibility has to come into play at some point. Tough conversation to have with people that have lost so much.

I first fished the section from the old log C-Post bridge down to Steelhead Haven in 1962 and my first steelhead came out of a spot now under the slide.

It was apparent to me then as a high school youngster that the base of that exposed hillside (prior slides) was oozing water and muck. The issue clearly was not whether there would be further slide(s) but only when and how big.

It is the magnitude of the current slide that is hard to comprehend and the loss of life.

At some point in the future(tomorrow?, 100 years?) will let loose with a huge amount of earth that will make the Oso slide look tiny. Who will we blame?

We'll blame the eco-freaks who would not allow us to excavate the hillside, build immense retaining walls, dams to stop floods, levess to keep them back, and so one. We humans can absolutely control nature and have to do so in order to allow me to use my property in whatever way I wish to.

On a more serious note, we as a society will allow this type of risk to occur so that when our particular "issue" happens we'll get bailed out. Rebuild the NO levees so that when the San Andreas goes we'll rebuild LA. And so on.

Not directly however he is a statist and a lawyer which represents the antithesis of personal responsibility.

I'll blame the people that elected that community organizer.

I fear that eventually it will fall into the same pattern it always does when disasters hit rural areas...

First the big mean ol' Gubmint will try to restrict building in a dangerous area, and will be called every name in the book, but especially "Communists!" because they aren't respecting private property rights.

There will also be discussion of FEMA concentration camps and death panels, not mention the War on Christmas, all of which are being foisted upon an unwilling public who shouldn't have to pay taxes for anything at all ever anyway.

Cut to disaster...now the very same people will blame the Gubmint for letting them build there...nay, requiring them to build there so that they could collect tax dollars from them!...then there will be whining about how long it took the Gubmint to respond to come and save their asses, and how poor a job FEMA or any other disaster relief agency has done.

They will have their hands out for all the Gubmint money that they are "entitled to" soon, and will "vow to rebuild" once the Gubmint does it's job and gives them the very socialism they are usually whining about (well, when it's given to someone other than them, at least).

Rebuild...repeat as necessary.

This is how "flood" management has worked in the lower river valleys for decades...it hasn't changed, so I don't see any reason why it would start changing now.

Fish on...

Todd

I can just hear this guy telling Snohomish County officials they have no authority to tell him where he can build,live or whatever.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deadly-...e-wanted-n64186

I think out of respect for the Darrington community, the "L" word (logging) is being tiptoed around, but it will eventually be discussed as a major cause of the slide.

In terms of rebuilding, I can see the homes on the south side of the highway being rebuilt, but I can't imagine rebuilding the homes in the Steelhead Haven plat. How would a RE agent market the homes? "There was a small slide a couple of years back and some people died, but its safe now"? I just don't see it happening...

Here is the Steelhead Haven plat map. The plat contained a mixture of small, old vacation type cabins as well as average quality year round residences. Generally speaking, any lot with an address had a home on it...

Ike

If you carefully check my postings you will see that I post before work, maybe first break and at lunch . That would be before 6am, between 9:50 and 10 am and 12 to 12:30 pm.

His story is the first half of my "hypothetical but happens every time around here" story above...

Ike, logging will never, ever be the cause of anything bad in that valley...you know that.

Fish on...

Todd

And, by the way...I think it's perfectly OK to feel like that guy did...it's just not OK to blame anyone but yourself when schit goes sideways...which, of course, is just exactly what does, and likely will happen.

Fish on...

Todd

Such a bad deal. It is just terrible to try and comprehend what happened to those folks.

- -- -
editorial

The finger pointing and blamestorming is surely going to go on for a while on this. Todd is ultimately right, IMO, there has to be personal responsibility when you choose the location you are going to live in.

However, this is Washington, and I would bet a case of any beer that there will be new additions to the State Critical Areas Ordinance based on this event. It won't reach most jurisdictions for a while (4-5 years?) but the current wording is probably something like: "are you building within 200 feet of a slope steeper than 15% or a landslide risk area?" I could see it expanding to 600 feet, or 1/4 mile.

Over $760k raised and growing

Forest practices - road building and logging - has certainly contributed to and even been the direct cause of innumerable mass wasting events in western WA. And the slope this slide is on has been logged as well. A significant difference is that this is a deep seated slide that no amount of forest root structure and cohesion could prevent, which is why the lydar photos show a slide history that predates modern logging. It's possible that an intact mature forest would have slid less, but well-credentialed experts will probably argue both pro and con as to whether it would have made a difference in regards to loss of life.

And say what you will about the anti-government east county tarheels and the like, but the reports I hear indicate they aren't reliant on government to rescue, recover the dead, or begin putting in a road onto the "pile." They showed up with picks, shovels, chain saws, front end loaders, track excavators, and gravel hacks (dump trucks). These guys aren't the least bit averse to dirty, hard work, or a good barroom brawl.

My friend talking to his neighbor about putting in a new septic system: "Permit? You don't need no stinkin' permit; that there's fer them city folk down in Evvritt."

Or me talking to a Darrington tarheel years ago: "Hey, that guys fishing in closed water." Tarheel: "Well, course he is. Fishin's always better then."

It might be a bit of a stretch, but after the events of this past week, I have to wonder about how safe it is to stay at the Gold Basin camp ground at certain times during the camping season. As some of you are aware, it’s not unusual for the Gold Basin slide to be mentioned in the same sentence as the Hazel/Steelhead Drive slide.

Some more interesting information:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1065/pdf/ofr2014-1065.pdf

Fish on...

Todd

You guys aren't mentioning "the big one", when it will hit, what the cost in life and expense will be, or the following "restrictions on building". C'mon you Monday morning experts......I'm sure you have the answers.

Maybe we should avoid likely volcano fall-out areas as well?

Tsunami zones?

Ma Nature doesn't give 2 sh!ts what you do, think, or say.....She does what She wants. Period.

Slab

In honor of the tragedy - keep this thread respectful. Go to the dark side if you want to say disrespectful or just zip it

Agree.....Self Reliant

Todd pretty much summed up the anti-gubmint reactionary process.

There are just as many natural disasters in heavily populated areas as there are in rural areas.

You don't have to make it easier, for Mother Nature, to allow permits for building in the 100 year flood plain or close to a cliff.

I don't think anybody in their right mind would want to rebuild anywhere near that pile. However, the State of Oregon thought building Loon Lake Campground on top of an ancient landslide was a good idea.
It's a beautiful area.

I'd say that almost everyone reading this lives in the Mega Quake zone, which is over due, so where can you move that is actually safe.

Choose your risk tolerance and go for it.

I think a park named after Sanoah with a stone memorial on the site would be a good thing.

Rebuilding there would be a bad thing. Didn't you see Poltergeist?

i couldn't imagine what this would be like with my home and family. My thoughts and best wishes to all affected.

Agreed....great post!

I haven't been past that area in a hella of a long time. Hiked up to Round Mountain and camped with a high school buddy and his cousin from Darrington one Fourth of July weekend. The place was Shelf Lake. The river on the drive up from Arlington to Darrington looked pretty fishy.

I've heard this is the worst disaster ever in Washington. My thoughts and prayers to the victims.

57 killed by the Mt St Helens blast. Missing list revised to 30 tonight, that's good news....

The last subduction zone earthquake and tsunami, sometime on a January night in the late 1700s, probably killed more people here, not to mention Japan and the rest of the area tsunami'd, and had much of the coast drop something like 10' and flooding bays,

Avalanche hit train stranded on pass in deep snow 1917; 97 killed: http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?DisplayPage=output.cfm&file_id=5127

This stuff will have to be addressed sooner or later...as noted above it's been a very, very serious problem in the entire Stillaguamish Valley for decades and decades...but now that it's turned deadly hopefully it won't be ignored any more.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2023235343_mudslideovercutxml.html

Fish on...

Todd

Worst Washington disaster was probably this -
http://www3.gendisasters.com/washington/2465/moses-lake-wa-airplane-crash-dec-1952

My Dad lived there. He remembers this vividly.

91 Killed as Huge Transport Crashes

Worst Mishap in Aviation History Survived by Few; Snow Marks Crash's Scene.

MOSES LAKE, Wash. (AP) - A big transport plane crammed with holiday-bound service men crashed and burned near here Saturday morning, killing 91 of an estimated 118 aboard.
Hours after the C-124 Globemaster smashed into the ground on a takeoff from Larson Air Force base, officials announced the death figure after earlier reports that varied from 86 to 102.

MOSES LAKE, Wash. (AP) - A giant Globemaster "Christmas Special�" flying service men home for the holidays crashed with 118 men aboard early Saturday, and the Air Force announced there were 91 known dead - the worst accident in aviation history...

My heart goes out to the families of the victims of the Oso slide. Thanks to all those volunteering and donating resources to the recovery effort.

SS Pacific was a 876-ton sidewheel steamer built in 1851 most notable for its sinking in 1875 as a result of a collision southwest of Cape Flattery, Washington. The Pacific had an estimated 275 passengers and crew aboard when it sank. Only two survived.

Many believe there's $65M in gold still out there...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Pacific_(1851)

A little bit of good news...

http://www.king5.com/community/blogs/the-pet-dish/Boomer-the-dog-found-Oso-slide-253832561.html

Boomer's family is dead, but I'm sure he'll find a good home at least.

Fish on...

Todd

Coastal Community Bank to forgive loans. This is what stepping up to the plate looks like. And many thanks to all those who donated, have volunteered, are volunteering, and just plain went in to find survivors right when this happened.

http://mynorthwest.com/76/2486675/Commun...by-Oso-mudslide

About 40 homes were destroyed in the Oso landslide and many who lost their houses probably still owe payments on their home loans.
Lyn Peters of the state Department of Financial Institutions says mortgages are legally binding contracts, even if the homes are gone. But one community bank says if insurance won't help their customers impacted by the slide, they're willing to forgive their debt.

"What Coastal has said is we're going to step up if insurance does not cover your loss, you've got a loan with Coastal, and you're directly affected by this mudslide, we will relieve you of that debt," Eric Sprink, CEO of Everett-based Coastal Community Bank, tells KIRO Radio's Dori Monson.

The bank has locations in Arlington and Darrington, along with eight other branches in the region, and says they believe it's their duty as part of the community to assist their customers.

"We think it's the right thing to do. We do not see it as an act of charity or overly kindness. It's just the right thing to do. The community needs to rebuild. The community needs to get back on its footings."

Good for them. However he did not say if they have any loans there. Secondly they insure the loans so they may only be out a small premium. Banks are never forgiving .

The interview I listened to they stated they did have loans to people affected by the slide. Whether the bank insured the loans or not, that's their business.

We were caught by surprise when we heard about the Oso slide while on vacation. Even though there was news coverage in AZ. about the hillside giving way, the information contributed on here was an outstanding source about the mudslide that answered many questions. Thanks to all.

Condolences and best wishes goes out to all those affected by this disaster.