OK the November 18 Coho rack return numbers for Bingham / Springs are up on the WDFW website and here are 2020 and 2021 returns for the comparison same point in time.

2020 Hatchery Adults 8374 Wild 1204 Jacks Hatchery 3728 Wild 195

2021 Hatchery Adults 11749 Wild 3220 Jacks Hatchery 7015 Wild 365

On the hatchery side the return appears to be hanging out at around 34% above 2020's numbers for adults. Now 2021 wild adults are coming in at 250% of 2020 which is outstanding! Keep in mind we DID NOT make escapement in 2020.

2021 Hatchery Jacks are about 190% above the 2020 returns and 2021 Wild Jacks are looking to be 180% above the 2020 returns.

So the fears that the backside of the run would not materialize as in some years in the past appears to not be happening. This is a really big thing because in 2020 a lot of folks caught the big movement and wanted expanded opportunity. Well the big movement ended up being the vast majority of the run and we blew escapement. Again this year same thing and again bitching about hatchery numbers and wanting to expand the season. Well it appears that the backside of the run is holding up but with the rains and harvest restraints it is just OK not off the map.

Now the Hatchery Jack thing is looking good coming in at over 180% and Wild Jacks hanging out at about the same 187%. Because Bingham has a weir and can do a accurate adult count for the East Fork this is a good number. That it mirrors the hatchery returns would indicate that 2021 Coho returns are above forecast and escapement should be a non issue. It also looks like the fresh to salt survival for both hatchery and wild Coho was very good so we got fresh and out migration looking good. The next year in the salt before the adults side of this years Jacks comes around appears to be the make or break part of the cycle this time around.

As Mike said in his email we are crashing right into the GH Policy 3/5 clause for failing to escapement so 2022 should be better for the fish but restricted for harvesters if we fail to make escapement for 2021. That is the thing about the GHP it sets parameters for NT harvest opportunity but it is conservation driven. Screw up and not make escapement and harvesters will pay a price. Well we didn't do well from 2016 forward on escapement and we are going to feel the pain if we blow escapement again.