Very unexpected. I was planning to buy high and sell low. Dang!

air freshner kicked in

Dow 11,891.52 +110.58 +0.94%

My crystal ball says our markets will go up significantly
if Greece avoids default and will drop like a rock if Greece
Or Italy default.

+1

Thats a pretty safe bet right there!


Fishy

Sure, it's a no-brainer. Greece or Italy going insolvent would be to risk a domino effect across the European banks, and the ripples would most definitely be felt on this side of the Atlantic.

The question is; if it goes down how long will it stay down, and if it goes up how long will it stay up?

Most of the time, I don't pay it much mind, because the stocks I have are long-term investments and you only realize a loss if you sell on the low. If you hold, you'll be there for the inevitable rebound and you can stop calling the suicide hotline.

The EU is predicting a pretty weak growth in GDP; around 0.6% and Gubmint austerity programs have slowed down growth all across Europe . Domestic demand has failed to pick up the slack. That's not a good thing for us because 29% of our exports go there.

It's probably going to get pretty nasty for quite awhile.

U.S. stock prices tumbled at Monday’s open, as growing concerns about heavy debt loads both domestically and abroad added more uncertainty to a troubled market.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (I:DJI)
11,556.92 -239.24 (-2.03%)

Sell!!!

Fish on...

Todd

.....but who's buying?
Why buy stocks today when you can pick them up later for 30% less

Dow 11,577.13 -219.03 -1.86%

Chuck does your mirror only reflect bad stuff? You have reported, with aparwnt glee, several big down days in the market. In the interim we have had several big rallies. The market is about where it was months ago, but if one read only your posts they wold think it had dropped a ton.

Why do you hate the market.

SG you are in pretty much the same mold. Do you really wanna be in Chucks mold? Many months ago you were sure "they" were manipulating the market to lower the value of your 401K. Since then it has risen a bunch.Yet you remain consistently cynical and pessimistic. Did you miss that big run up?

No! I am not saying all is well - just that it goes up and down. Always has - always will.

I


I think

Why would you think a down day on the market is bad?

At my youthful age your damn straight I report it with glee ... its a DAMN GOOD thing

So my question is why do YOU hate the market Dave?

Well Chuck, I had no idea you were such a contrarian. So I guess you were bummed by the summer rally. Please explain why you like down days. Most folks do not - unless they are short sellers. Are you selling short these days?

My cynisisms dont origninate from the ups or downs themselves, but from the viewpoint that the whole market is a manipulated smoke and mirrors fraud. The inexplicable climbs and rapid falls we see today seem more or less based speculation, & on hopes and fears than the actual market forces that were in play 6-8 years ago, and before we had supercomputers influencing the market with high frequency trading.

I'm pessimistic about the market because I think the whole fukkin thing is rigged and gamed to the benefit of the elite... peope who have big stakes in the game. I am also squarely in the camp that the market is an overvalued balloon in and of itself, and subscribe to the school of thought that a major correction is right around the corner.


and there ya have it.

but if its gonna be down, stay down a little while and let me add to the count.

SG

From a historical perspective the market is underpriced today. A look at the P/E of the dow components since 1929 reflects an averagr around 15, while today we are closer to 12. That said, no one knows what will happen tomorrow. And as always fear and greed will rule. But it is hard to argue todays market is overvalued in terms of the earnings of the companies in the dow.

The average P/E for the Dow Jones Industrial average since 1929 has been 15.5 (Uses year-end data and excludes years when the P/E was abnormally high due to near-zero earnings and not due to optimism (1933 P/E 47.3, 1982 P/E 114.4, and 1991 P/E 64.3 are all excluded as outliers, which lowers our historical P/E estimate). However the Justifiable P/E changes with earnings expectations and the market's required return on equities. I have conservatively calculated that the current Justifiable P/E is in the range of only 12.5 to 14.3, even assuming that investors will be satisfied with a projected return of 7% or 8% respectively due to today's low interest rates. This conservative calculation of the justifiable P/E assumes that, on average, the DOW companies will only earn, on new investments, the 7 to 8% minimum ROEs required by investors in today's low-interest rate environment. The more optimistic we are about the level of the P/E in ten years time, the higher is the justifiable fair value level of the DJIA index today. Quite possibly proprietary technology, scale advantages and brand loyalty may allow corporations to earn, even on new investments, ROEs somewhat above the minimum required by investors and this would justify somewhat higher P/E ratios.

When I first calculated, in 2002, that the sustainable or justifiable P/E ratio for a broad stock index was about 12.5 to 14.3 the figure seemed impossibly low given that the market index P/Es were well over 20 at that time. But given that the Dow Jones Industrial Average today is just 12.3 times trailing earnings, my earlier calculation of the sustainable or justifiable P/E now looks quite plausible indeed.

yeah, what he said







wait a second, what did he say?

Buy Silver.

and gold

If you see a stock with a P/E less than 12, buy it. Lots of it. OK, but not too much of it.