You should probably change tactics when the first winter runs start to show up. I think it's more about the conditions now. With water levels rising and clarity decreasing a dry fly would be out of the fishes window. By swinging a fly behind a sink tip you're back in their zone.

In bigger rivers I can swing a fly in the deeper holes year around. But I look for lower levels and the right holding water to throw a dry. You find that later summer and fall.This holding water looks a lot different with winter rains.

I think it would be cool if we had success for winter runs on a dry. But I think I'll stay with the odds and keep it wet.