The application of the information that the return of the CWT information helps answer some of the questions being asked about Stillaguamish Chinook. The CWT information is the foundation of the managers FRAM model used both pre and post season.

From the draft 2017 co-manager plan the post season FRAM Stillaguamish exploitation rates (ER) estimates for the years 2005 to 2014 yield the following information

Alaska had a 1.7% ER on unmarked fish and 2.3% on marked fish.
BC had a 15.7% ER on unmarked fish and 19,6% on marked fish.
SUS troll had a 1.7% ER on unmarked fish and 2.6% on marked fish.
SUS net had a 1.2% ER on unmarked fish and 1.2% on marked fish.
SUS sport had a 4.2% ER on unmarked fish and 9.4% on marked fish.

The NF Stillaguamish hatchery program has been a conservation program designed to supplement spawning escapements. A run reconstruction for the same document for the 20 year period (1990s to 2009) should on the average the natural spawning escapement was approximately 1,500 (marked and unmarked combined) which on the average produced and naturally produced runs (fish produced by those spawners) of 933 adults (2.5% of the estimated of 40,000 historic population). Over those 20 years there were 4 years where the number of naturally produced adults (recruits) exceeded the number of spawners. Those R/S (recruits/spawners) that were greater than 1.0 had values of 1.02, 1.02, 1.06, and 1.23. During the first 10 years the average R/S was 0.7 and during the second it was 0.6. 6 individual years had R/S of less than 0.5 with the lowest being 0.24. Pretty clear that conservation problem is essential to supporting Stillaguamish Chinook.

The lower North Fork Stillaguamish USGS stream guage (NF Stillaguamish near Arlington) has a reasonably long period of recorded of annual peak flows that might help illustrate the sorts of habitat issues that Lifter is referring to. Those records go back 1929.

From 1929 to 1979 there was not a single year with an annual flood larger than 32,000 cfs.

During the 1980s there were 3 years with floods over 32,000 cfs (32,100 to 36,300).

During the 1990s there were 4 years with floods over 32,000 cfs (34,400 to 36,700).

During the 2000s there were 8 years with floods over 32,000 cfs: those events were 33,500, 39,000, 39,200, 39,800, 44,000, 49,400, 50,600, and 55,100.

I'll leave it to the reader whether the increase in larger floods is significant or not

BTW -there now a second Stillaguamish hatchery program in the basin. This a captive program for the SF fall Chinook population.

Curt