Here is a CCA paper from a bit back on the allocation of Chinook and the Southern restrictions. This where it gets interesting because the 2023 Grays Harbor Harvest Model identifies who in the marine area takes GH Chinook and Alaska was to take 7928. This was just completed recently and reflects announced 2023 marine seasons.

So looking at the CCA work and then the 2023 GH model the numbers don't seem to work as the total shut down results in 7928 GH Chinook not harvested by Alaska. Sooooo like I said for GH this should be interesting as those fish got to end up someplace.

CCA:
2023 Fall Pre-Season Allocation of West Coast Salmon Fisheries
Columbia River Fisheries Not a Priority

The Pacific Fisheries Management Council (PFMC) recently wrapped up the annual North of Falcon process where WDFW, ODFW, and tribes negotiated salmon fisheries in Oregon and Washington,
including allocating the allowable harvest of Columbia River salmon stocks in summer and fall fisheries.

ESA-listed lower Columbia River fall Chinook salmon (aka Tules) are once again the primary limiting stock for this year’s fall fisheries, the same as in 2022. That means that the harvest impacts on Tules are used to prioritize nearly all fall salmon fisheries on the Pacific coast, north of Cape Falcon. Compared to last year, you can see in the table below how WDFW, ODFW and PFMC representatives prioritized this year’s fall fisheries.

2022 vs 2023 Pre-Season Prioritization of Tule Impacts

2022 2023 Change
WA Coast (rec and commercial)* 0.3% 0.4% 33.3%
NOF Recreational 3.0% 4.0% 33.3%
NOF Non-Treaty Troll (commercial) 4.1% 5.4% 31.7%
BC (rec and commercial) 13.0% 14.0% 7.7%
NOF Treaty Troll (commercial) 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Columbia River (rec and commercial) 9.8% 9.4% -4.1%
SE Alaska(1) (rec and commercial) 2.9% 2.2% -24.1%
SOF Recreational(2) 0.6% 0.2% -66.7%
SOF Troll(2) (commercial) 2.1% 0.2% -90.5%
Total Allowable Tule Impacts: 38.0% 38.0%

* WA Coast is primarily comprised of impacts associated with fisheries in Willapa Bay, Grays Harbor and Puget Sound.
(1) Alaska commercial troll fishery decreased per Court Order to protect Killer Whales.
(2) Most salmon fisheries closed on the California/Oregon coast to protect Sacramento River and Klamath River Chinook.

Impacts to Columbia River Fisheries
Given mandatory closures in Alaska, California and Oregon, a rather significant percentage (3%) of Tule impacts were made available in 2023 to be distributed to other fisheries. All other fisheries were either increased or saw no change except for the Columbia River, where shockingly, fisheries managers intentionally chose to reduce fishing opportunity, where more than 350,000 licensed anglers fish. By comparison, the commercial non-treaty troll fishery, which consists of approximately 100 licenses, was allocated almost half of the available 3% Tule impacts.

Next Steps
Unfortunately, nothing can be done to reverse the pre-season decision to decrease Columbia River fishing opportunity in 2023 (unused impacts can still be shifted to in-river fisheries). The popular
Columbia River Buoy 10 recreational salmon fishery is planned to close for at least five days (Aug 21-23, 28-29) and will also be managed 100% mark-selective to utilize Tule impacts more effectively. Ocean fisheries, however, are not being managed as mark-selective fisheries, which is the most sustainable way to harvest Pacific Salmon in mixed stock fisheries. These are the current Washington representatives on the PFMC: Phil Anderson – former WDFW Director and Westport charter boat owner, Butch Smith –
Ilwaco charter boat owner and captain, Kelly Susewind - WDFW Director.