Ok, I found my notes. I guess my numbers may be correct and we may have been comparing apples and oranges. It shows 30-50% survive the migration back to the ocean which is the number I recalled when I first posted and then it shows only 1/3 of those survive to come back (repeat spawners). One third of 30-50% is 10 to 16.7 percent which is in the range of what RT is saying (10%) and what PS is saying (15%). Based on this the numbers of repeat spawners get smaller and smaller every year.

If we start with 10000 (1st time spawning) fish

1st time spawners = 10000

survive back to ocean is 30-50% of 10K which is 3000-5000 fish.

2nd repeat spawner is 1/3 of that which is 1000-1667 (average 1333)

survive back to ocean is 30-50% of 1333 which is 400-666

3rd time spawner is 1/3 of that which is 133-222 (average 177)

based on this only 177 out of original 10000 are 3rd time spawners which is only 1.77% and the number is going to get smaller for 4th time spawner and so on.

I am sure it is a lot more complex than this linear and primitive model but thats what the article shows. So if you didn't catch that 30 lbs fish don't worry the odds are against you and if you do, don't harm her!