Mike -
Some interesting questions. In discussing these issues it is important to separate hatchery and wild fish.

Regarding the smolts out migration -
The reference was regarding the hatchery smolts. The plants for this year's return were slightly above normal and from all indications in good health. They don't appear to be the source of our poor returns.

The concern with the hooking mortality on wild juvenile steelhead of course is an entirely different matter. Some losses during summer fisheries may not be a significant problem when the population is doing well. As the population declines those losses can and does become significant.

Hatchery fish-
Not sure were the idea comes from that the 2-salts are weak. While it is true that the hatchery run is mostly 2-salts and that makes the hathcery returns more votatile than wild runs. If there is a year class failure the hatchery run will be very low while with the wild run the swings would not be as large. It is a function of population demographics.

The parents of this year's Puget Sound hatchery fish were collected and spawned late in the season (following emergency closures similar to this years). Peak spawning occurred in late January and February rather than late December and January. It may be that the hatchery fish may return later than normal.
Only time will tell.

You are correct in that all indications are that the problems are in the ocean. The winter and summer smolts go out at the same time of year and begin their journey around the north Pacific together. However as you point out they do go their separate ways with the summer fish breaking off and returning 6 months earlier. Clearly the summer fish are finding normal conditions and the winters are not. The fact the poor survival conditions for the winters is being reported over a wide geographical area further supports the thesis that the problem is in ocean.

The wide spread nature of the problems also seems to argue against most major predators. For example it is hard to image marine mammals being responsilbe over such a wide area -If it was limited to just the Columbia or Puget Sound maybe but everywhere at once seems unlikely. High seas net fisheries also seem unlikely - not seeing the net marks that were common in the 1980s when the steelhead were being caught in the high sea squid fisheries. My best guess is that the winter fish are either finding adverse ocean conditions (example warm water) or lack of food or possible both.

While the increase in summer steelhead in the Snoqualmie may not seem like much consider the following: The summer population is confined to the forks of the Tolt. The spawning counts are limited to the South Fork Tolt (total spawning area of 5.8 miles). This is a small stream with average flows of less than 70 cfs. For that small piece of habitat the estimate of MSY escapement level has been estimated to be 121 fish. Average escapements of 200 fish is 1.6 times the MSY level. This may be approaching carrying capacity; certainly those years when escpaments are 250 to 366 fish have to be bumping up against carrying capacity. A comparable abundance of winter fishing for the whole Snohomish basin would be over 10,000 fish (6,500 times 1.6). I think that is significant.

Hope that helps

Tight lines
Smalma