Jacob,

WDFW forecasts the native (wild) steelhead run size for the Green River using spawning survey data (redd counts from helicopter flights over the river about every 2 weeks during the spawning period) and running it through a spawner/recruit formula that forecasts an estimate of the number of 2-salt, 3-salt, and respawners that will return each year. The estimated run size has to exceed the spawning escapement goal in order for there to be a harvest fishery allowed on wild steelhead. The run size forecast has to be at least 80% of the escapement goal in order to permit a CNR fishery on wild steelhead. WDFW estimates CNR mortality on steelhead at 10% or less. Mortality could certainly be lower, but refer to the thread that mentions all the improper handling of fish to be released by recreational anglers.

In addition to pre-season forecasts, run sizes can sometimes be updated in season from catch and effort data provided a good relational database exists. I don't think WDFW has any inseason updating formulas for wild steelhead runs.

The upshot is that WDFW either has to prioritize conservation of wild steelhead or not. I hate to see fishing opportunity reduced, but what reasonable choices are there? If the run size is less than the escapement goal, then any fishing on that run will not increase the spawning escapement. Providing fishing opportunity comes only at the expense of escapement.

Sincerely,

Salmo g.