I did a little noodling in Excel on the run size. According to the Compact documents, actions are based on an estimated run size of 145,000 fish over Bonneville.

Based on my calculations, we're on track for a run size of about 188,000 fish. To reach this, I used the following bonneville dam counts. 4/12 and before are actual. 4/13 and after are an average of the previous week, and then declining as shown.

This estimate is probably conservative, as we have had a couple of huge days over the dam in the past two years, and that isn't factored in.

What this means is that if the run size is larger, we may get allowed to handle more wild fish, and that means the season my get continued. We were on track to hit the allowable impact by yesterday, based on the original run size.

So, the biologists are probably running similar, but more educated spreadsheets. Seems to me like we'll likely be able to continue fishing. The bad news is, the commercials may get a day in there as well that could hurt us.

BTW, dates are off by one, bad typing. Doesn't effect the basic conclusion.

2-Mar 121
3-Mar 102
4-Mar 127
5-Mar 140
6-Mar 213
7-Mar 266
8-Mar 371
9-Mar 394
10-Mar 627
11-Mar 516
12-Mar 307
13-Mar 323
14-Mar 595
15-Mar 942
16-Mar 416
17-Mar 559
18-Mar 736
19-Mar 426
20-Mar 332
21-Mar 343
22-Mar 150
23-Mar 99
24-Mar 115
25-Mar 622
26-Mar 1973
27-Mar 2161
28-Mar 1690
29-Mar 1807
30-Mar 2580
31-Mar 2574
1-Apr 1687
2-Apr 1293
3-Apr 1567
4-Apr 3823
5-Apr 7455
6-Apr 3900
7-Apr 2629
8-Apr 3591
9-Apr 3955
10-Apr 6402
11-Apr 5302 total to date
12-Apr 4632 63,231
13-Apr 4632 Average of previous week
14-Apr 4632
15-Apr 4632
16-Apr 4632
17-Apr 4632
18-Apr 4632
19-Apr 4632
20-Apr 4632
21-Apr 4632
22-Apr 4632
23-Apr 4632
24-Apr 4632
25-Apr 4632
26-Apr 4632
27-Apr 3706 80% of previous day
28-Apr 3706
29-Apr 3706
30-Apr 3706
1-May 3706
2-May 3706
3-May 3706
4-May 2965 80% of previous day
5-May 2965
6-May 2965
7-May 2965
8-May 2965
9-May 2965
10-May 2965
11-May 1779 60% of previous day
12-May 1779
13-May 1779
14-May 1779 total
15-May 1779 188,298