I forgot to say, I am 100% against this tax cut, and most tax cuts, unless and until the budget as balanced and remains balanced after the cut. The current adminstration's agenda is as clear as it is selfish - bankrupt America for the benefit of the already fortunate. And if in the process of bankrupting America we can force the rollback of every social progam ever enacted, well, all the better.

This country is headed towards a fiscal trainwreck. 70% of the federal budget is driven by non-discretionary items such as medicare and debt payment. As we increase the federal debt through these massive deficits, we reduce the funds available for these programs, as well as the discretionary programs, such as the military and homeland security.

If the debt grows by $300 B, interest payments grow by about $14B. If the debt is funded by the 30 year treasury bill, that means that for the 300 billion dollar shopping spree this year, we get $420 Billion of nonproductive drag on our government over the next 30 years. Ultimately this has to crash. The most likely scenario out of the crash is for massive inflation to reduce the real value of the debt. The government could print money to pay the debt, which would devalue the dollar, bringing the real value of the debt down to a size that could be managed. However, it would likely destabilze the economy in the meantime, and could well cause political instability.

That is what happened to Germany after the massive wartime reparations debt in the 20's leading to the rise of Hitler. That is what happened in Argentina in the past ten years.

Another aspect of the agenda to reduce government spending through banrupting the government is that it will likely stagnate the economy. Those dollars that we give to the poor through social security, welfare, medicare, etc, don't dissappear into mattresses. They are a major element of consumer demand. If those programs dry up, consumer demand will be reduced by that amount. We have our various opinions about whether that is worthwhile, but the impact will definitely not be a stimulus on the economy.

So, Bush's team is not impressing me in their economic performance. Rather, they scare me to death.

Would that we could get McCain in 2004.