I've never heard of any hatchery returns being used to measure anything regarding wild runs...they're two different fish and while they both may ebb and flow with environmental conditions, the size of one is in no way a predictor of the size of the other.

Wild runs are indeed much more durable, but...

An excellent hatchery return of 3% of 300,000 smolts would produce 9,000 hatchery fish to harvest.

An excellent wild fish return of, say, 10 % of 20,000 smolts is only 2,000 fish.

They're more durable on a percentage of smolts that return as adults, not more durable on a purely numerical basis.

Fish on...

Todd